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Tomas Conechny

Portland Timbers

Sin Seba: How will the Timbers compete without Blanco?

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda


Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L'Amoreaux via MLS

Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L’Amoreaux via MLS

Portland’s hard-fought 2-1 win in Seattle last Sunday came at a huge cost. In just the second minute of action, Sebastián Blanco went down with a knee injury while providing high pressure. He stayed down for a few minutes, needing a stretcher to carry him off. As we later learned, this was far more devastating than anyone was hoping for.

Paulson’s tweet says it all. Blanco was certainly in contention for MLS MVP this season, especially after nabbing MLS is Back Tournament MVP honors already.

At 32 years old, this will be a significant setback for a player who has been Portland’s best player as of late. Arguments could be made for an aging Diego Valeri, uber-consistent Diego Chará, or goalkeeper Steve Clark as the Timbers’ best; but it’s been magic moments from Blanco that have saved Portland’s rear in recent seasons.

Think about this: Without Blanco’s goals in Seattle and Kansas City from the 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs, we might be talking about a team that’s been trending in the wrong direction since hiring Giovanni Savarese. But we’re not. So let’s be grateful.

Fortunately, the Timbers do have one of the deepest rosters in MLS. The front office has been building this squad with depth in mind for years now. In terms of how lineups will change, I think Savarese will put his 11 best players on the field, whatever that means to him.


Portland’s starting XI for last Sunday’s match against Seattle

Portland’s starting XI for last Sunday’s match against Seattle

Let’s take a look at who could replace Blanco in the starting XI and beyond.

Replacement Options

Marvin Loría

When Blanco went down against Seattle, Marvin Loría was his replacement before coming off for Yimmi Chará in the second half. In my opinion, Loría is still a step behind MLS play, but he’s only getting better with more and more playing time.

Loría still has growing to do. He hasn’t produced much this season (0.16 expected goals plus assists per 90 isn’t horrible, but he has 0 real goals or assists) in just over 300 minutes. While he’s been solid as a filler, Loría is not a viable long-term replacement. I still wouldn’t be too irked to see his playing time rise while Blanco is out, though.


If Loría is a straight swap for Blanco

If Loría is a straight swap for Blanco

Also, Loría is a bonafide winger. Blanco liked to drift in and out of the center, picking up possession wherever he could and finding space on either wing to get the attack going.

Yimmi Chará

Like Loría, Yimmi Chará is usually thought as more of a winger than a playmaking #10. However, this is something I could see changing now that Blanco’s out. In the past, Portland had two guys who could always fill the role as a 10 in Blanco and Valeri. Now, with Blanco out and Valeri aging, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yimmi get a start as a central attacking mid during some midweek games.


If Yimmi is a straight swap for Blanco

If Yimmi is a straight swap for Blanco

Another option is for Gio to scrap JeboOnTheWing™ for the time being and insert both Loría and Yimmi into the starting XI. I think this is unlikely, because Gio has indicated many times that he believes Jebo can play either forward or winger, but I see him having a hard time keeping either Ebobisse or Jarosław Niezgoda off the field.

Personally, I believe Yimmi and Jarek should both definitely start in important matches. Despite Ebobisse’s hot streak in the MLSiBT, I do think Niezgoda is realistically a better option as the lone forward. For that matter, Felipe Mora might be, too.

  • There were reports linking Jebo overseas recently, and frankly, I don’t think it would be too detrimental for him to go. I love everything Jeremy has done on and off the pitch, and it would be extremely hard to let him go, but the Timbers have three starting-caliber forwards and a system of play with only one forward spot.

  • It’s also worth remembering that Mora is only here on loan. He might not return if Jebo ends up staying and producing.

Eryk Williamson

One of the most pleasant surprises under Savarese has been the development of Eryk Williamson over the past two seasons. I remember asking Gio about Williamson after his first full 90 late last season; now he’s scored his first MLS goal and made the MLS Team of the Week.


Williamson could move into a more attacking role if Diego Valeri is unavailable

Williamson could move into a more attacking role if Diego Valeri is unavailable

With T2, Williamson actually played more of an attacking role than his current one as a stopper/holding midfielder. If duty calls (say Valeri is out), I could definitely see Gio bumping Eryk up to the playmaking role while bringing in Paredes, Flores, or Zambrano as the extra mid.

Tomas Conechny

Conechny often gets labeled as the backup or third-string central attacking mid, but that’s more accurate in FIFA than real life. Under Gio, Conechny has been almost exclusively a B-team guy. I wouldn’t expect to see him in a starting XI unless Gio was resting players.

My Ideal Lineup

If I were Gio, this is how I would do things. Keep in mind that Gio is much smarter and more capable of assessing his team than I am.


lineup (4).png

I know this looks stupid, but hear me out:

  • Condense into a 4-4-1-1 when defending, with Jebo and Yimmi out wide on either side and Williamson next to Diego Chará in holding midfield

  • Duvall or Jorge pushes up to overload one side when in possession

  • Jebo and Jarek both stretching the back line at different points, taking turns dropping in to create space for one another

    • Valeri popping up to create triangles and slip through balls between the lines when this happens

  • Attacking crosses to either post are met with a forward and runs into the box by everyone else

  • Diego Chará plays like Diego Chará

Sounds good, right? Nope, didn’t think so. This is why I’m a writer and not a manager.

So, now what?

Often times, there is pressure from fans to see a consistent starting XI when the true goal is consistent results. It is the nature of Savarese’s lineups to be constantly shuffling players; moving guys in and out of the lineup. That’s a good thing. It means he’s willing to embrace competition within his squad.

With Seba out for the rest of the season, the pressure for creativity falls more on the shoulders of not just Diego Valeri, but the rest of the XI as well.

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Portland Timbers

Timbers Roster Updates and Mock Depth Chart

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda
saprissa.jpg

The season is almost here, and it appears Portland is almost ready to go. The squad is currently doing some preseason training in Costa Rica. Their first preseason match was yesterday against Saprissa, which Portland won 2-1.

The Timbers recently picked up Chilean forward Felipe Mora and Polish forward Jaroslaw Niezgoda.

My first article here at CSN was about where a new signing named Brian Fernández would play. Times change. Players come and go. So here I am, predicting how two new forwards will fit into the squad.

Felipe Mora

Mora is on a loan using Targeted Allocation Money, according to The Athletic. The loan reportedly includes an option to buy, which means Portland can retain him next season if he finally becomes the #9 we’ve been looking for since… well, the #9 we’ve been looking for.

https://twitter.com/PumasMX/status/1221606061381169153?s=19

Mora has played in Chile and Mexico, the latter with Cruz Azul and Pumas.

Mora is a pure #9. He plants himself on the defense’s backline, often in between the opponent center backs. Most of his goals come from headers and poaching chances in the box. Not a bad plan for a team that fell into the empty void of crosses last season—Portland was 2nd in MLS in crosses (557) and 12th in goals scored (53)—so after a naive first glance, it would seem they need a proven poacher upfront.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH-PBeH_F08

Jarek Niezgoda

Brian Fernández was more of a dynamic forward, and so is Jarek Niezgoda, Portland’s newest signee. Niezgoda probably cost just under $4 million in transfer fees, and he joins the squad as a Designated Player, occupying the third and final DP spot on the Timbers’ roster.

https://twitter.com/TimbersFC/status/1222942735549624320?s=20

Since becoming a bonafide starter for Legia Warsaw in 2017, Niezgoda has scored 39 goals in 87 appearances. This includes a Polish-league-leading 14 goals in 18 appearances in the latest installment of the Ekstraklasa.

He’s a spry 24, so hopefully a touch quicker than CSN’s own Kevin Nesgoda.

After announcing the signing of Niezgoda, Timbers GM Gavin Wilkinson gave a very interesting sigh of relief to MLS’s Tom Bogert. Included was a scouting report of the new striker:

“Jarek is capable of playing as a single No. 9 or as a two, and he’s even played out wide in the past. Balancing his characteristics with Jeremy, we feel very good about that position. He’s a goal scorer, comfortable with both feet. Good size, good athleticism and can finish in a variety of ways. He attacks the ball. With his feet, he’s very quick, gets the ball off his foot very quickly and he’s an honest, hard-working player.”

via Tom Bogert

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzPSadilxLg&t=1s

On the Pitch

In the aforementioned report, Gavin indicated the Timbers would announce the signings of Mora and Cristhian Paredes (who is still technically on loan from Club América). These were both given substance by fan-turned-insider Keith Palau, and the former was confirmed by the Timbers.

https://twitter.com/kpduck/status/1223129066464612352?s=20

Portland will have two DP attacking wingers and one DP forward. My assumption is that all three of these players will start, making an all-DP front line of Sebástian Blanco, Niezgoda, and Yimmi Chará. Both Blanco and Yimmi historically like to cut inside, meaning the Jorges (Moreira and Villafaña) will continue to bomb up the flanks and send in crosses.

This is all fine and good, except it would be ideal to have a big center forward on the end of those. Mora may seem like the obvious choice for this, but keep in mind that Niezgoda is 6’1″—small in basketball, but pretty dang tall for a soccer player. Within his quick assessment of Niezgoda, head coach Giovanni Savarese mentioned the forward being “good with his head,” so it hopefully he’s still be an aerial threat.

Possible Starting Formations

As per last week’s roster check, this is still how I saw the starting XI shaking out:

But Gavin’s comments from last week have me almost certain of a two-forward system. He mentioned the system itself and made it clear Jebo had a place in the squad:

“We believe in Jeremy Ebobisse,” Wilkinson said. ”He’s a quality player with a big upside and he’s not the finished product, so we have to be careful not to limit his growth and minutes. We wanted to acquire a Young DP that also has an upside that Jeremy can compete with, and with a profile to change systems and tactics so they can play with one another.”

via Tom Bogert

This dual-striker idea, while presenting an attacking pipe dream (via a probable solution to Portland’s problem of breaking down teams in a low block), begs the question—if we’re adding a forward, who comes off the field?

My instincts say a holding midfielder (so, Paredes) or moving to three at the back by replacing Villafaña and Moreira with another fullback (probably Bill Tuiloma). Playing with three center backs is something Savarese mentioned at Portland’s Media Day last week.

I’d also welcome a three-man backline that still included the regular outside fullbacks. For these purposes, I’m assuming the Jorges’ attacking tendencies (and long-lamented lack of tracking back) would keep them out of this system, but I’m sure Gio could justify a way of making it work.

Maybe some Jebo on the Wing™ will be a starting option in a 4-3-3.

Right now, the 4-3-3 would be my best guess as to what the Timbers will put out on March 1st. It checks all the boxes Gavin mentioned and keeps Portland’s most proven players on the field in a system that’s still similar to Gio’s past ones.

If one thing’s clear from these signings, it’s that it’s finally time to say goodbye to Savarese’s beloved 4-3-2-1 “Christmas Tree” that served as Portland’s security blanket XI in the past two years. Poor Tannenbaum.

Portland may also play with five at the back that adapts into a 3-6-1 or 3-5-2 in attack to utilize the strengths of the Jorges. Feel free to choose your own adventure and plugin Jebo somewhere with this formation, too.

Regardless of what exact system Gio goes with, the fact that we can even speculate this much highlights an important feature of this team: its positive evolution. At the beginning of last season, we were struggling to select 11 guys that were starting-caliber MLS players. Now it seems we have an embarrassment of riches, especially up top.

Although we haven’t seen them in action yet, Gavin and owner Merritt Paulson should be receiving a bit of praise for clearly identifying areas of need and filling them with no-nonsense signings. Again, we have to see how these newbies adapt, but on paper, it’s a job well done.

Depth Chart

Here’s my interpretation of a hypothetical Timbers “depth chart”—I went for realisticness over the organization. Considering we’re pretty far from even knowing what kind of formation or system we’ll play, it’s safe to say most of this is up in the air. Still, feel free to slander me on any social media platform or the comments below.

Goalkeeper

  1. Steve Clark
  2. Jeff Attinella
  3. Aljaz Ivacic

Steve Clark has proven his spot as the first keeper over the course of last season. In 24 starts last season, Clark finished third in MLS in save percentage (.755), second in goals allowed per 90 (1.04) and recorded a clean sheet 25% of the time. The Timbers are clearly committed to Clark, giving him a new contract over the offseason.

Attinella is still a starting-quality ‘keeper for the most part, and he did start in 10 matches last season. While he conceded 24 goals in that stretch, it’s worth noting that both these goalies dealt with some truly abysmal performances by the other 10 players throughout the season, too.

Ivacic is the clear choice above other Timbers 2 goalies Kendall McIntosh (who has departed) and Jake Leeker, who he’ll continue to share reps with in the USL Championship with T2.

Center Back

  1. Larrys Mabiala
  2. Dario Zuparic
  3. Bill Tuiloma*
  4. Julio Cascante

One of Portland’s worst overall positions last year was center back. When Larrys Mabiala was out with an injury, it seemed the Cascante-Tuiloma pairing took much too long to gel. Claude Dielna (who was not resigned) struggled to keep up with the competition when called upon, as well. Even when Mabiala returned, the defense was still not up to snuff. Often times, it took Steve Clark standing on his head to keep the ball out of the net.

It wasn’t surprising, then, that the first big offseason move Portland made was to sign a new center back, Dario Zuparic. A TAM signing, Zuparic will probably be good enough, especially because of Gio’s indication that Tuiloma can be used at positions other than CB.

*As of yesterday’s match against Saprissa, Tuiloma will be out for two months. Better sign another defender…

Left Back

  1. Jorge Villafaña
  2. Marco Farfan
  3. Bill Tuiloma

No signings have been made here (yet), so the depth chart pretty much stays the same.

Farfan is preferred on the left, and it feels like Moreira’s spot is a tad more secure than Villafaña’s.

Bill will appear on both outside back positions just as a filler. Unless there are injuries, I doubt we’ll actually see him there.

Right Back

  1. Jorge Moreira
  2. Marco Farfan
  3. Bill Tuiloma

Again, nothing new here, although right back was an area addressed by Gavin and Gio at Media Day. Farfan is still the second string at both these positions assuming he recovers well from injury.

Chris Duvall is currently on trial as a right back with the squad in Costa Rica. He’d be a solid backup at a thin position.

Stopper

  1. Diego Chará
  2. Cristhian Paredes
  3. Renzo Zambrano
  4. Andres Flores*
  5. Eryk Williamson
  6. Bill Tuiloma

*Flores is out for a bit with a meniscus tear, but that shouldn’t change this order too much.

Depending on how Gio decides to set up, we may continue to see the Paredes/Chará pairing in the holding midfield. If only one is used, it will be Chará. Portland’s only All-Star last year was sent there for a reason. He still hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, even at 33.

Zambrano and Williamson got intermittent reps with the first team last year, and Williamson especially got some crucial minutes. The soon-to-be-23-year-old played a full 90 in Portland’s 2-1 home win over Sporting Kansas City in September and started the next match, playing 61 more minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed the more experienced Zambrano during the year.

Tuiloma has actually played a bit of stopper for us in the past, so he’s another viable option should the midfield get thin.

Central Attacking Midfielder

  1. Diego Valeri
  2. Sebástian Blanco
  3. Tomás Conechny
  4. Eryk Williamson
  5. Blake Bodily

This might as well be called “the Valeri position.” It’s not exactly a #10 creative piece, but it’s also not a pure #8 box-to-box duty. El Maestro is back on a new contract, and although he’s no longer a DP, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting in this spot.

Blanco will often push in from the wing and be another creator from the inside, giving Portland more options in attack. When Valeri’s out, he’s filled in well at this spot, too.

Conechny has shown flashes of his ability to lead the team from the attacking midfield—our best example being the 2-1 midweek loss at Montréal from last year in which a bunch of fringe-starters and T2 guys played. Conechny scored in this match, although Williamson occupied this position.

I put Bodily here because he’s a warm body that can play in the midfield. Maybe he get some Open Cup appearances.

Winger

  1. Sebástian Blanco
  2. Yimmi Chará
  3. Jeremy Ebobisse
  4. Marvin Loría
  5. Andy Polo
  6. Dairon Asprilla
  7. Tomás Conechny
  8. Eryk Williamson

I’ve grouped the wingers together because in Savarese’s offense they are essentially interchangeable. All of these guys can play on either side of the field, it’s just a matter of where they line up. In my lineups I’ve been putting Yimmi on the right and Blanco on the left for simplicity, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gio swapped them.

As mentioned previously, both Yimmi and Seba tend to cut inside, while Jebo gets in the box more and the rest mostly stay out on the wing.

Blanco and Yimmi Chará will both start, and you could basically swap them at 1 and 2 if you wanted to. I expect 1-4 on this list to get playing time, though. While Loría only logged 700 MLS minutes last year, he’s still only 22 with plenty of upside—just needs more first-team minutes.

As for Polo and Asprilla, I have to think they’d really need to show improvement to see significant minutes. Portland added two DP attackers, and it always seemed like Polo and Asprilla were placeholders rather than preferred starters.

Forward

  1. Jarek Niezgoda
  2. Jeremy Ebobisse
  3. Felipe Mora

While we may end up with an aforementioned two-striker system, the pecking order seems to be like this. I expect all three of these players to get significant playing time this year, albeit in this order.

While I have doubts about Niezgoda’s ability to produce like Brian Fernández did, I’m remaining optimistic.

According to this Richard Farley article, Mora’s more of a “Hey, this guy is buried in the bench of a solid Mexican team, so we might as well add some quality depth at forward” (quote non-verbatim). I like this move, and while Mora has a “3” beside him on my depth chart, he’s more of a 1.5-2. When we’re tied or down late in a match, it’ll be nice to have someone other than Asprilla to bring on.

Adieu

If I’ve learned anything from writing this, it’s that I am absolutely itching for the season to start. It’s a shame that the preseason matches in Costa Rica won’t be streamed, but I’ll see if I can piece together what goes on down there.

https://twitter.com/TimbersFC/status/1222034885826637824?s=20

Dare I say… if we sign a backup right back, this will be the deepest Timbers squad we’ve seen since 2015, possibly ever.

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Portland Timbers

Timbers vs Fire Preview: 8/14/19

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda
1024px-Diego_Valeri_Portland_Timbers_vs_RSL_2016-09-10_28990002203.jpg

The Portland Timbers (10-4D-9, 34 pts) will host the Chicago Fire (7-9D-10, 30 pts) at Providence Park on Wednesday night. It will be the second home match in a row for the Timbers, who find themselves perfectly poised to make a late-season run for a playoff spot thanks to a massive home stretch of matches.

The Big Picture

Take a deep breath. The Timbers find themselves at the penalty spot, with a chance to send themselves to the playoffs. All they have to do is execute. Portland exhales and approaches the ball. Will they rise to the occasion or Abdul-Salaam it off the posts?

Since that dreadful run of form to start the season, Portland has made all the right moves—signing Brian Fernández wasn’t a bad place to start, nor was defeating both Cascadia rivals. A hiccup in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals can’t cancel the phenomenal run of form that included beating Seattle in Seattle, shellacking the LA Galaxy twice (rare!) and defeating LAFC away (super rare!!). Portland are now undefeated in seven of their last eight MLS matches and ready to shake up the West:

Standings provided by Sofascore LiveScore

FiveThirtyEight’s MLS predictions give Portland a 90% chance to make the playoffs (second only to LAFC in the West) and 53 points for the season (on par with Seattle and Real Salt Lake). Despite trailing these teams in the standings, Portland has a game in hand and play 10 out of their 11 remaining matches at home. But how realistic is this prediction?

In order to hit a 53-point total, the Timbers would have to earn 19 points from their remaining 11 matches. This is certainly feasible, but it won’t be easy. After Wednesday’s match, only two remaining matches will be against a team currently outside playoff position—Sporting Kansas City—who will likely be fighting for a spot anyway.

History

Not to jinx it, but the Chicago Fire are the only team the Portland Timbers have never lost to in Major League Soccer. This match should be no exception. Portland are coming off a strong showing and are undefeated at home since the opener against LAFC. Chicago struggled mightily in July, dropping points to three playoff outsiders, but their last three matches have garnered seven points, all from teams they trail in the table. Still, the Fire have earned only six points from 12 away matches this season. 

Portland and Chicago have a peculiar history, including Portland’s inaugural home MLS match at Jeld-Wen field (this was also the first MLS win in the club’s history). Other notable matchups include a pair of four-goal draws and a dramatic home draw in 2014.

Lineups: who sits, who stays?

Timbers Head Coach Giovanni Savarese may elect to rest some players, alt5hough many already got that rest Saturday: Jorge Moreira, Brian Fernández, Cristhian Paredes, and Larrys Mabiala were all regular starters that sat, but their replacements performed well regardless.

Portland’s lineup vs Vancouver last Saturday

Earlier in the season, the lineup questions were about who was capable of starting for the Timbers. Now, it seems they can’t find enough spots on the field. Guys like Jeremy Ebobisse, Marvin Loría, and Tomás Conechny—who all scored or assisted last match—are in danger of sitting to start the next match, with Fernández coming back from thigh stiffness and the whole team playing well. 

My prediction is that Valeri gets some rest against a non-playoff, non-conference opponent, while Ebobisse retains his spot on the left wing. This could be a great time to get Tomás Conechny some starting experience, although it’s hard to leave out Loría after his glorious game-winner against the Whitecaps.

Projected lineup vs Chicago

Tactics and Keys

Similar to the Timbers, Chicago run a 4-2-3-1, with Nico Gaitan as their creative attacking spark, Nemanja Nikolić up top, and Aleksandar Katai and C.J. Sapong on the wings. Dax McCarty and Brandt Bronico are the holding midfielders, while Francisco Calvo and Bastian Schweinsteiger shore up the back line.

Despite the lackluster record, Chicago has managed an impressive average of 14.2 shots per game, as well as a TSR of .580 that trails only Atlanta in the East (American Soccer Analysis). Portland can not afford to make stupid mistakes against a guy who’s scored 47 times in three years.

Keys

  1. Set pieces—Portland has had their fair share of struggles defending set pieces lately. Chicago will use Nikolić to cause disruption off of Gaitan’s deliveries. Whether it be Cascante, Mabiala, or Tuiloma defending, clearances will be absolutely necessary. This is exactly what went wrong on last week’s goal, while the Fire scored two of their three goals against Montréal off corner kicks. 
  2. Defending the right wing—Moreira has been an attacking and tackling power for Portland this season, but it has come at a cost. He is constantly caught out of position, leaving the opponent’s left wing exposed and forcing the Timbers into a back three. Sapong gets a lot of action down the left side, with Chicago using the left wing on 40% of their attacks (whoscored). The ability of Moreira and Mabiala to stop C.J. Sapong and close gaps in the back line will be paramount to Portland’s success.
  3. Counterattacking—it’s no secret that the Timbers like to counter—and with some of the most talented attackers in the league, they have the skills to get it done. Bastian Schweinsteiger has been a defensive presence since moving to center back, but there’s no reason Fernández, Blanco, & Co. can’t crack Chicago.

Prediction: 2-0 Timbers

Overall, this is Portland’s game to lose. A win is expected and anything less will be disappointing. We have seen the Timbers falter in this same position a few weeks ago, drawing both Colorado and Orlando at home, so it’s now time to atone for past mistakes and hit the mark.

Match Info

  • Kickoff: Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 at 8:00p Pacific
  • Location: Providence Park, Portland, OR
  • TV: Root Sports (Local, Comcast 34/DirecTV 687), Streaming on ESPN+

P.S.: Some personal news—this will be my first match in the press box! Big thanks to Doug, Kevin, and everyone else who’s helped me get here. Go Timbers!

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Portland Timbers

Timbers gear up for Orlando, Seattle, and beyond

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda
timbers-army.jpg

After a wacky home draw against Colorado, the Portland Timbers (7-3D-8, 24 pts) will host Orlando City SC (7-4D-9, 25 pts) on Thursday (??) night at Providence Park. The Timbers will be hoping they can replicate the Thorns’ dramatic win against the Orlando Pride from last Sunday.

The Timbers are expected to roll out a weaker starting lineup for a number of reasons: First, the first MLS matchup against Seattle is looming on Sunday. While the Timbers and Sounders met in the U.S. Open Cup in June, this installment will be the first time both managers put out their best squads—and while they may meet in an American football stadium, it’s certainly a step up from a minor league baseball venue.

Therefore, there’s a very slim chance head coach Giovanni Savarese will risk starting the likes of Diego Chará, Sebastián Blanco, or Diego Valeri against Orlando. Savarese has made it clear that he is not afraid to rest starters during busy weeks, especially against Eastern Conference opponents. This constant squad rotation is a trend Timbers fans will come to expect from Savarese (if they haven’t already). The following is a list of Portland’s remaining matches until Decision Day, along with how many full days separate each match:

Date/Opponent Days of rest before each match
July 18th vs Orlando 4
July 21st @ Seattle 2
July 27th vs LA Galaxy 5
August 4th @ Minnesota 7
August 7th @ Minnesota* 2
August 10th vs Vancouver 2
August 14th vs Chicago 3
August 18th vs Atlanta 3
August 23rd vs Seattle 4
August 27th or 28th** 3 or 4
August 31st vs Salt Lake 2, 3, or 7
September 7th vs Kansas City 6
September 15th vs DC 7
September 18th vs NYRB 2
September 22nd vs Minnesota 3
September 25th vs New England 2
September 29th @ KC 3
October 6th vs San Jose*** 6

  • * U.S. Open Cup Semifinal
  • ** U.S. Open Cup Final (if necessary)
  • *** MLS Decision Day

While Portland’s final three months or so are loaded with home matches, they will rarely have more than a few days’ rest, especially if they beat Minnesota to make the U.S. Open Cup Final (which the Timbers will not be hosting, regardless of their opponent).

Now to the starting lineups. Predicting Gio’s starting XI is always a daunting task, but this is who I think will start based on how the Timbers lined up in the last few matches:

GK: Steve Clark—Clark stood on his head against Colorado, and will likely be called upon again. He is the clear starter over Jeff Attinella, who is nursing a bit of a right shoulder injury.

LB: Jorge Villafaña—This might be the toughest position to predict. Although he has been absent from lineups since the match against FC Dallas a couple weeks ago with a minor left thigh injury, Villafaña may be called upon because of Marco Farfán going down with a more serious knee injury last match.

CB: Bill Tuiloma and Claude Dielna—Tuiloma logged one half of play for T2 against Sacramento last Saturday, meaning he will probably continue to get reacquainted with the squad. Dielna has been one of the most improved players for the Timbers this season, and Larrys Mabiala will likely sit out before the Seattle match. Cascante is suspended from his straight red card as well, so he won’t be an option either.

RB: Zarek Valentin—It’s more than likely that Moreira will be rested before the Seattle match. Unless Gio brings someone up from T2 to start at outside back, it will probably be Valentin and Villafaña holding down the defensive wings. Also note: Modou Jadama, who was brought up from T2 to start at right back in Montréal, will be questionable with a right lower leg injury.

DM: Renzo Zambrano and Andrés Flores–Chará and Zambrano both went the full 90 against Colorado, the former doing the same at LAFC midweek as well. Flores is the likely replacement, although it will largely depend upon Cristhian Paredes‘ status—don’t be surprised to see him out there Thursday night, but he still seems to be the preferred partner to Chará in that holding midfield area.

LM: Marvin Loría—Although appearing almost exclusively as a right winger for the first team, Loría is perfectly capable on the left. Unless Gio prefers Loría over Jeremy Ebobisse against Seattle, Loría will likely start over Blanco, if not replace him early in the second half.

AM: Tomás Conechny—Gio loves the idea of getting the Argentine youngster more meaningful minutes, and this match against Orlando is the perfect opportunity to do so. Blanco and Valeri split time against LAFC and Blanco played the whole match against the Rapids, with Valeri playing 78 minutes. Also, if the Timbers aren’t starting an Argentine in central attacking midfield, are they really even the Timbers?

https://twitter.com/ChrisRifer/status/1151547610886373377

RM: Andy Polo—Polo has yet to return to the pitch for Portland after playing in five out of Peru’s six Copa America matches. Asprilla looked—shall we say, inadequate—last Saturday and he or Loría are the only other players I could see starting here for this match.

FW: Brian Fernández—Fernández was subbed on for Asprilla two-thirds of the way into the Colorado match, but only managed 12 touches and two blocked shots, as Portland were pinned in their own half with 10 men after the Cascante red card. I do not expect Fernández to play the full match, either as a starter or a substitute, and Ebobisse starting up top certainly makes sense as well considering the circumstances.

In review, my best crack at a Timbers starting lineup looks this:

In other news, known deviant Dom Dwyer will not be on the pitch at Providence Park Thursday after receiving a straight red card for this ill-advised elbow in the 93rd minute against Columbus. This is both great and mediocre news for the Timbers Army; Dwyer is a taunting character to say the least, but it’s always fun to see a Timbers win wipe a smile off his face.

https://twitter.com/folkestad3/status/1150508565372628992

Overall, Thursday’s match will be an interesting one. Gio will almost certainly put out a B or C-level lineup, and Orlando also have an important Sunday match coming up against the Red Bulls. Gio’s substitutions will be the X-factor; we’ll see if he can make the adjustments to take all three points in the second half.

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