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Pac-12 South

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PAC-12 South Preview: Can anybody compete with USC? … No.

by Kevin Nesgoda October 31, 2020
written by Kevin Nesgoda


QB Kedon Slovis and a loaded group of USC receivers have the talent to roll to a Pac-12 South Division title in 2020.

QB Kedon Slovis and a loaded group of USC receivers have the talent to roll to a Pac-12 South Division title in 2020.

Well, somebody had to write this preview. So here we are. Not even a two-month delay to the season could make the Pac-12 South Division look any more intimidating than it would have back in September. It’s a bad division in an otherwise decent conference.

I can find absolutely no reason that No. 21 USC doesn’t win the South and a spot in the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 18, just seven weeks after kicking things off. Only one other team in the South is talented enough to challenge the Trojans, and even they are still a few steps behind.

That’s not to say USC back to elite status (they’re not), but a tribute to just how weak the South division is in 2020. Think I’ve bagged on these teams enough already? TOO BAD.

Here come the rankings/predicted order of finish.


USC – Clay Helton will ride the arm of QB Kedon Slovis, distributing the ball to one of (if not the) top receiving groups in the country. Offensive line is still a concern and the defense has yet to prove itself, but overall the Trojans are the only scary team in a weak division. Aside from Arizona State, nobody else in this division competes with the Men of Troy.

Let’s get this thing started!

Our 2020 #Pac12 schedule.#FightOn ✌️ pic.twitter.com/1hCYzeYT8q

— USC Football (@USC_FB) October 3, 2020


Arizona State – QB Jayden Daniels is a star, but will he have weapons around him or an offensive line capable of giving him time to succeed? The Sun Devils return the bulk of their defense from 2019 and should have one of the top defensive units in the conference. Herm Edwards has a good thing going, but the Sun Devils are at least a year away from playing for the conference title.

The 2020 Schedule is here 😈 🔱

Full breakdown: https://t.co/cPJPbvtMPv pic.twitter.com/qjGglIXz5Z

— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 3, 2020


Utah – There are a lot of question marks for the Utes with just nine starters returning for the two-time defending division titleholders, BUT … Kyle Whittingham has a knack for reloading and should be able to put together a team significantly better than the bottom half of the division. Britain Covey is a special talent (and fun to watch) while Jake Bentley could turn heads as the new QB.

And the countdown officially begins …

‼️2020 @Utah_Football SCHEDULE ANNOUNCEMENT‼️

Link: https://t.co/0Spg8KGXW4#GoUtes pic.twitter.com/Q4OyYAfLkm

— Utah Athletics (@utahathletics) October 3, 2020


Arizona – Grant Gunnell gives the ‘Cats the ability to put points on the board, but can Arizona stop anybody from hanging 40-50 points? Kevin Sumlin could be coaching for his job, as he has yet to deliver on the expectations brought from Texas A&M. If the defense can make strides, Sumlin could have an extended stay, but I doubt it.


Colorado – The offensive cupboard is pretty bare, but the Buffaloes have a good number of defensive starters returning. Karl Dorrell takes over as Colorado’s third coach in as many years and despite a tough first season at the helm, he gets a morale-boosting win over UCLA, a program he coached from 2003-07.


UCLA – The Chip Kelly hiring has been a disaster. Fortunately for UCLA fans, 2020 will probably be the last time they see him roaming the sidelines in Pasadena. Offensively the Bruins are bad and defensively they’re even worse. They’re so bad in fact, Under Armour terminated a 15-year apparel deal after just three years. 


GAMES TO WATCH

11/7 – Arizona State at USC

The top teams in the division meet in the season-opener, with the winner seemingly in the drivers’ seat for the South crown, thanks to a wide margin of competition between the rest of the pack.  

11/20 – UCLA at Oregon

Chip Kelly returns to Eugene, where his popularity soared as coach of the Ducks. Unfortunately, he brings with him a UCLA team among the worst in the conference to face an Oregon team that is the unanimous pick to win the Pac-12 title. Lots of points scored in this one … by the Ducks. 

11/28 – Utah at Arizona State

If the Sun Devils fall at USC, the Utes could find themselves in a situation where they could take control of second place by beating ASU on the road. It’s a big “if” but worth keeping an eye on. 

12/12 – USC at UCLA

Funny things happen in rivalry games, even when the two teams are so far apart in the standings. USC should enter this game looking to finish 6-0 before playing for the Pac-12 title, but in what could be “Chip’s Last Stand,” the Bruins would have nothing to lose.


COMPLETE PAC-12 PREDICTIONS

NORTH DIVISION

1.     Oregon

2.     Washington

3.     California

4.     Stanford

5.     Oregon State

6.     Washington State

SOUTH DIVISION

1.     USC

2.     Arizona State

3.     Utah

4.     Arizona

5.     Colorado

6.     UCLA

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP

Oregon over USC

October 31, 2020 0 comment
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Thoughts on Oregon’s 2020 Schedule and Evolving Conference Matchups

by Kevin Nesgoda August 7, 2020
written by Kevin Nesgoda


Image by John Martinez Pavliga via    Flickr    (CC BY 2.0)

Image by John Martinez Pavliga via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Some Context

The Pac-12 released its plan for an altered 2020 fall football schedule on July 31st. As things stand now, week one is set to start on Saturday, September 26th. However, the Pac-12 has already laid out a backup plan in which the first two weeks of each team’s schedule can be compressed into their bye week and one week after the finish of their current schedule but before the potential Pac-12 title game.

As we already know, the conference abandoned any non-conference games previously scheduled to be played this season. That means no Hawaii, no North Dakota State, and (most notably) no Ohio State for our Ducks. Instead, it will be a 10-game, conference only schedule—meaning Oregon will play all but one Pac-12 foe, only missing out on a matchup with UCLA. It also means that there is a good chance the 2020 Pac-12 title game will be a rematch of two teams who have already met this year. 

Pac-12 approves 2020 football schedule and plans for fall sports.

Full info ➡️ https://t.co/GSrX1TOFS2#Pac12FB | #BackThePac pic.twitter.com/9sUq38VwY6

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) July 31, 2020

Briefly, let’s address the elephant in the room: nobody knows whether this schedule will ultimately be played in this order or whether we’ll see football in the fall of 2020 at all. I’m of the opinion that nobody really can know for sure right now. Even if this thing gets off the ground and we do see games played, I wouldn’t rule out the schedule being altered or canceled if new information about player safety comes out.

And just to be clear, player safety should be, and needs to be, the number one priority in all of this. It’s our role as fans to support the players’ safety and their right to choose whether they want to play. With that said, I’m rooting hard that football can be played safely this fall. I love the Ducks and I love college football. Hopefully, this proposed schedule works out. For the rest of this article, I’ll be assuming that the schedule is played as currently planned. 

Setting the Expectation 

Look, Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12. We’re the defending conference champs. We’re the defending Rose Bowl champs. Every week we should be stepping on the field expecting to win. Honestly, we should be looking to win big. This Andy Avalos defense is capable of holding any team in the conference under 15 points, and even an off night shouldn’t result in anything a good offensive performance can’t make up for.

Speaking of the offense, I expect us to be improved this year despite the loss of Herbert. Moorhead should be a major improvement at offensive coordinator. Tyler Shough is a guy I fully believe in at quarterback, and everything coming out of the program seems to suggest he’s capable of taking over. Verdell is a quality Pac-12 back. At receiver, Oregon has its deepest unit in years—including a likely breakout guy in Devon Williams. On the offensive line, yes we’re going to have to work in some new faces—but we do have Mario Cristobal as coach and Penei Sewell, arguably the best player in all of college football. (For more of my full thoughts on our depth chart, go check out episode 3 of Quacked Out Podcast on Spotify here or Apple Podcasts here).

All this is to say, the expectation this year is to win a Pac-12 title and be in the thick of the conversation for the college football playoff (although we are unsure what format that will take). Yes, it’s college football, upsets happen and we should all expect the unexpected. But that being said, all the pieces are in place for a big year in Eugene. Now onto the schedule…

Game-by-Game Breakdown

9/26 Colorado

This is a great warm-up game for the Ducks. No offense to Colorado, but I don’t think we need to be too worried about this one. Get the new offense clicking and see if Avalos’s unit can pitch a shutout. It’s a good draw for our first game. Plus, Oregon will get to look ahead and dedicate some extra prep to a Washington State program that has given us fits over the past 6 years.

10/3 @ Washington State

The Ducks travel to Pullman for this week 2 matchup. Former head coach Mike Leach is out at Wazzu, traveling south to Starkville, Mississippi; and with him, he takes his patented air-raid offense. The Cougars’ new head man is Nick Rolovich, who landed the power-5 job after a successful stint at Hawaii.

Rolovich has his own unique personality and prides himself on a run and shoot offense he’s seen some success with at prior stops. From a football perspective, I don’t hate the hire by Washington State, but I also believe Leach had done an incredible job in crafting a unique system to match this lower end power-5 program, and ultimately I believe that Leach’s niche strategy is the probably the smartest way to put a competitive product on the field at an under-resourced program like Wazzu.

The Ducks can’t ignore this game, but I don’t think it presents quite the same threat as it has in recent years. Plus, there obviously remains a sizable gap in talent between these two programs. Cristobal’s guys should be fine if they come in sharp.

10/9 (Friday) Arizona State

You’d have to think the Ducks have this one circled after the heartbreaking loss we suffered in Tempe late last season. It’s a chance for revenge, and it’s a chance to make a statement.

I’ve always been one to point out there were reasons for our loss to the Sun Devils last year. Defensively, it was a bad game—but that unit wasn’t helped by our offense’s inability to sustain a drive. On offense, Oregon was hindered by the absence of Jacob Breeland, Mycah Pittman, and Jaylon Redd—three of Herbert’s favorite options to when attacking the seams of a defense. Additionally, Jake Hansen was out for the 2nd half, and Throckmorton’s slower snaps threw off the timing of the offense.

Herm Edwards, Jayden Daniels, and company certainly deserve a lot of credit for getting it done, but I’m not of the belief that last year’s result is indicative of a trend to come in this matchup. Injuries do happen in football and I do think we ultimately deserved to lose the matchup in Tempe last fall.

However, as Cristobal recruits more and more of his guys into this program, the Ducks are starting to build the depth necessary to overcome these setbacks. Personally, I expect this team to be dialed in this time around.

10/17 @ Oregon State

This will be a year to break tradition between the Ducks and their in-state rival Beavers. The game will no longer be marketed as “the Civil War” after a push from current and former players, including Oregon legend Dennis Dixon. Also, it won’t be played during the traditional final week of the season. But one yearly tradition I do hope to continue is the Ducks crushing the Beavers, as we have in 12 of the last 13 matchups.

I think the Beavs are finally trending the right direction in Corvallis and believe that Jonathan Smith is a capable man for the job. Oregon State has some impact players and things have been picking up for them in recruiting—with the notable addition of 4-star in-state running back Damir Collins out of Jefferson High School in Portland.

But the talent gap between these two in-state foes is still massive. I simply don’t see how the Beavers can overcome that this year. 

10/24 Bye Week

As things stand now, the Ducks are off in week 5—and frankly, we should expect to be undefeated at this point. I don’t love this bye week for Oregon. In a 10-game schedule, it’s a little earlier than ideal in my opinion. But Mario Cristobal will just have to make do with the cards he’s been dealt.

After the bye, Oregon heads into a 6 game stretch where I expect 4 of their 5 most challenging matchups of the season will lie (Arizona State being the one game not included). Oregon absolutely can make it through this gauntlet unscathed, but that will tak
e discipline and focus. It will be a good test of the culture Cristobal has been so dedicated to implementing during his time in Eugene.

10/31 Washington

A Halloween night brawl between the Huskies and the Ducks is what’s on the docket this season. Anyone on Twitter knows how much this rivalry has heated up in the past few years. What’s more, the rivalry is becoming a year-long event, with both programs heavily involved in the recruitments of high profile west coast players like Troy Franklin, Moliki Matavao, and JT Tuimoloau. Mario Cristobal and Jimmy Lake alike even seem to be feeding into the bad blood. I love it.

My take on the Huskies is that they’re on the verge of a decline. Chris Petersen is definitely a good college football coach, and the mix of coach Pete’s culture and the more high talent recruiting UW had under Sarkisian is the best way to win in Seattle. Now Pete is out and Jimmy Lake is in. Lake may have what it takes to get things done in this sport eventually—the jury’s still out on that—but for now, he’s still learning the ropes. Husky fans had hoped that Lake would provide a younger energy and spark necessary to make UW cool (particularly on the recruiting trail), but his first offseason has been filled with blunders and lowered expectations.

Washington is unequivocally losing this rivalry on the recruiting trail in the 2021 cycle, and really, it isn’t even very close. If the Huskies suffer their 3rd consecutive defeat to Cristobal, expect their fans to get anxious up in Seattle, given how much time they spend mulling over how they stack up with the Ducks. To make matters worse for UW, it looks like Lake made a poor hire at offensive coordinator in John Donovan, a guy who has struggled to find success as a college OC and draws consistently negative reviews from fans at his past stops, most notably Penn State.

With that said, as much as I hate to admit it, UW actually has a pretty talented roster going into this upcoming 2020 season. The Huskies sit at 13th in the 247 Blue Chip Ratio, a metric created by Bud Elliot to measure the portion of each team’s scholarship roster that is comprised of former 4 and 5-star recruits. No team has won a national title with blue chip players making up under 50% of their scholarship roster, and Washington sits just above that mark at 54%.

This won’t be a cakewalk for our Ducks, as the past two matchups have been decided by the thinnest of margins. That being said, I think it’s fair to expect an Oregon win this year over their rivals up north. In my estimation, we have an advantage in the quarterback room. We have an advantage at both coordinator spots. We have an advantage in strength and conditioning. We have an advantage in experience at head coach.

Overall, this Ducks roster is battle-tested and has proven a knack for pulling out close wins in big games under Cristobal in a way the Huskies have not. (OK I know the Auburn game… but besides that one… and 2018 Stanford. Ugh.) Anyways, these are all potentially deciding factors in what figures to be a close game between two talented foes. Give me the Ducks.

11/7 @ Cal

This one has all the makings of a trap game. It’s situated right between Washington and USC—probably the other two most talented rosters in the conference and two games that our players and coaches take very personally.

On the other side, Cal has a bye week before this game, so they’re sure to be focused and well prepared. Something is building in Berkeley under Justin Wilcox (shoutout to the former Duck). This would certainly be a signature win for the Golden Bears, a la the upset the Sun Devils pulled off in Tempe last year.

As reigning Rose Bowl champions and favorites in the 2020 conference race, Oregon is going to get the best shot from every team they face—everyone wants to take down the champ on the big stage. Again, this will be a test for the culture that Cristobal has continually beat the drum for during his time in Eugene.

At their best, Oregon should be able to win this game handily. The question, of course, is will we show up at our best? Have the Ducks embraced that heartbreaking defeat in Tempe and used it as motivation to stay sharp? Or are we prone to repeat our mistakes and suffer the same fate once again? That’s what I’m looking to see from this game.

11/14 USC

For the 3rd week in a row, the Ducks will face a top Pac-12 opponent—see what I mean about the second half of this schedule being a bit loaded? There are few things that get me more hyped up than Oregon vs USC—the only in-conference matchup that features two national brands.

I don’t question that our players will be geared up for this one, but the same could be said of the opposing Trojans after they suffered an embarrassing 32-point blowout in the coliseum last year. Every time Oregon beats USC it means a little extra—another year that the program most capable of creating a dynasty on the west coast lays dormant. Cristobal has been very calculated in squelching any moment at USC, consistently winning high-profile battles both on the field and off. We’ll see if he can do it again this year.

Who are the breakout candidates in this one? It’s got to be the front 7 for Oregon. Play from our secondary will be crucial against Graham Harrell’s air-raid attack lead by Kedon Slovis—but I trust those guys in the back end for the Ducks. The place where Oregon really has a chance to dominate this game is in the trenches on the defensive side. USC is weak on the o-line, and it’s the type of weakness that could cripple their entire attack if properly exploited. Luckily, the Ducks have just the guys to do it—Jordon Scott, Austin Faoliu, Mase Funa, Adrian Jackson, Isaac Slade-Matuatia, maybe even a bit from the freshman linebacking duo of Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell. Oh ya, and then, of course, there’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.

After an impressive freshman year, especially towards the latter end, Thibodeaux seems ready to pop as a sophomore. If it hasn’t happened yet, expect this game to be Kayvon Thibodeaux’s official entrance onto the national stage. NFL number one pick buzz, a run at the Bednarik Award, an invitation to the Heisman ceremony in 2021—it could all start with Thibodeaux tormenting his former hometown Trojans on a Saturday in mid-November. That’s what I expect to happen.

11/20 (Friday) @ Arizona

This will be a much-needed break for our Ducks. Yes, Arizona has some talent—a promising QB Grant Gunnell, a solid WR room, and some experience on defense. And, of course, strange things always seem to happen in the desert. I just don’t see much magic going on there under Sumlin. Unlike their in-state counterpart, Arizona doesn’t seem to be building towards much.

I’ll say this, I expect Sumlin to be gone before the Wildcats find themselves back in the heat of a Pac-12 South race deep in November. I simply don’t believe this program has the energy or the swagger to pull off a major upset against the Ducks. That makes this a nice road draw for Oregon, and should give us the chance to collect ourselves before the final push.

11/28 Stanford

Oregon and Stanford ha
ve had some memorable and meaningful showdowns over the past decade or so. Some have had me jumping and shouting in victory, others left me crushed and demoralized in defeat.

Unfortunately, I believe that that era of the rivalry is coming to an end. At one time this was one of the great yearly stylistic clashes in all of college football. For the Ducks, it was always a crucial test of whether a given year’s squad could handle the brutal physicality and clinical execution represented by the Cardinal. Under Cristobal, I am not sure that Stanford will still be the relevant measuring stick for whether Oregon can compete nationally in a given year. Cristobal prioritizes the trenches; it’s the first place he wants to make sure we aren’t outmatched. Not only has Stanford declined, but also, the sport has evolved.

In the early 2010s, the top tier of college football (outside of Oregon) looked a lot more like those old Stanford teams—the Cardinal were an appropriate simulation of what we might see against an Auburn or Alabama on the national stage. In today’s sport, that regional measuring stick probably looks more like a pass-heavy offense with dynamic playmakers at receiver, something like a better version of Leach’s Wazzu or the USC air-raid. Either way, I’m sad to say I don’t expect this year’s Stanford game to be one of the most compelling chapters of “birds vs nerds.”

In a weird way, I’m actually sad to say I’m not too worried about the Stanford game this year. Just look what happened last season, Oregon had one of our most sluggish performances (at least offensively) and still walked out of Palo Alto without much threat of taking a loss.

To summarize, I just think Mario Cristobal has built this program in a way that nullifies many of Stanford’s strengths that at one time gave us fits.  

12/5 @ Utah

The Utes campaigned hard for this one—it appears they are seeking revenge after suffering a crushing defeat to the Ducks in last year’s Pac-12 title game, which left Utah on the outside of the playoff. Frankly, the Utes lose a lot from their special season in 2019; most notably Tyler Huntley, Zack Moss, Jaylon Johnson, and Bradlee Anae. Those are the type of players that gave real teeth to Kyle Whittingham’s program.

To make matters worse for the Utes, Cristobal and the Ducks don’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. If the Pac-12 landscape is an arms race, then Utah is falling well behind in terms of talent acquisition. More and more, they are becoming the team that shows up with a knife to the proverbial gunfight, as their recruiting rankings lag behind the rest of the conference’s top tier. At some point, the talent gap simply becomes too large to overcome with scheme and culture. It might be enough to edge out a dysfunctional USC program in the Pac-12 South race, but besting the Ducks is another story. Again, it’s not like Oregon is a program lacking in culture or scheme, particularly after the addition of OC Joe Moorhead.

If there is a silver lining for the Utes, it’s that they have until the last week of the season to prepare themselves for this game. They have ample time to turn an abundance of question marks into answers and they’ve shown an impressive ability to reload, particularly on the defensive end, over the past few years. However, if Oregon plays its best game, we should win comfortably—as we did in the conference title game last season.

And speaking of the conference title game, this matchup brings an interesting dynamic because it could be a possible preview of the conference title game currently scheduled for just two weeks later. Oregon seems to be the favorite in the North, while Utah figures to be in a close race with USC and likely Arizona State for the South. It’s entirely possible that these two teams could face each other in consecutive matchups, something that has seldom been seen in college football. 

12/12 Bye Week

Another bye, this one is the same for every school in the Pac-12. If games have to be canceled or rescheduled, there’s a good chance they’ll move to this week. If that doesn’t happen, it will be nice to have an extra week to gear up for a potential conference championship game.

Also, this could be a key period for Cristobal and staff to sure up recruiting for the Ducks’ 2021 class before early signing period, which is currently slotted for December 16th through the 18th (although that may be subject to change given this year’s unique calendar). By the way, that 2021 class is shaping up to be the best in program history by a pretty wide margin. 

12/18 or 12/19 Pac-12 Championship Game

There’s not too much to say here given the Ducks don’t know who their opponent will be or even which date this game will be played on. Some would say the Ducks don’t know if they’ll be in this game. They also don’t know, for sure, where it will be played. The conference announced this year’s game will be held at the home stadium of the team with the best record.

I do know this though: if the Ducks play up to their full potential, we should be playing our final conference game in Autzen in mid-December, and hopefully, we’ll be looking to make a statement and bolster our case for a playoff berth (in whatever form that takes).

Final Thoughts

11-0 is out there. 10-1 is out there as well. Either of those marks would clearly be a very successful season. Now, is this the year? I don’t know. It could be. This team has the talent to pull something big off and in a sport and a year of uncertainty, I’m not willing to count them out entirely. But, I also think it’s important for us all to put things in the context of the trajectory of this program.

I’m of the opinion that the best is yet to come in the Cristobal era. A couple more recruiting classes like this one in 2021 and Oregon will have the roster to be within a score of any team in the country on any given Saturday. So what do we need out of this year? Really, I would just say we need to maintain the standard we established in 2019-20.

First, win the Pac-12, or at least win the North. If we do that, we should secure a bid to a New Years 6 bowl (assuming those happen this year). A competitive performance in a NY6 bowl gives Oregon all the tools we need to continue the upward trajectory of this program. I certainly believe that’s a goal that this team can accomplish. 

Shameless plug: Go listen to Quacked Out Podcast on Spotify here, Apple Podcasts here, or search Quacked Out Podcast on your preferred platform for a lot more Ducks talk and follow on Twitter @QuackedOutPod to keep up to date. Go Ducks! Peace.

August 7, 2020 3 comments
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Oregon, Utah, and Championship Weekend

by Kevin Nesgoda December 6, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
Screen-Shot-2019-12-05-at-8.31.17-PM.png

The 13th-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-2, 1st in Pac-12 North) will face the No. 5 Utah Utes (11-1, 1st in Pac-12 South) in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday, December 5th at 5:00 p.m. PT at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.

This game has College Football Playoff implications for the Utes, who find themselves in prime position to jump No. 4 Georgia should the Bulldogs lose to No. 1 LSU in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. Let’s take a look at Oregon’s possible bowl game matchups.

Where are we going? Who will we play?

For the Ducks, the goal is simple: win this game, and an automatic Rose Bowl berth awaits as winners of the Pac-12. Lose and the options open up a bit: If Utah ends up in the Playoff, Oregon would still go to the Rose Bowl as the next-best Pac-12 team. If Utah beats Oregon but doesn’t make the Playoff—maybe Georgia wins and keeps their No. 4 spot or the Utes are passed by Oklahoma or Baylor—then Kyle Wittingham’s squad would be headed to Pasadena and the Ducks would find themselves in the Alamo Bowl.

The Rose Bowl opponent would be the best Big Ten (stylized: B1G) team available. Since current No. 1 Ohio State is a lock for the Playoff if they win the B1G Championship Game against Wisconsin, the bid would go to the next-highest-ranked B1G team. That’s currently No. 8 Wisconsin, although the Badgers may drop below No. 10 Penn State with a loss to Ohio State. Of course, a win in that game would put the two-loss Badgers in the Rose Bowl. At this point, I’d say the most likely Rose Bowl opponent would be Penn State.

Should Oregon go to the Alamo Bowl, they would face an team from the Big 12 (B12). The B12’s bowl priorities are the Playoff, then Sugar, then Alamo. If the winner of the Oklahoma-Baylor conference championship leaps Utah for the Playoff, the Ducks would play the third-best B12 team, which is currently No. 25 Oklahoma State. If Georgia or Utah takes the final playoff spot, the loser of Oklahoma-Baylor would go to the Alamo and the winner would go to the Sugar Bowl.

Review: Oregon’s (realistic) bowl matchups

  • Rose vs Penn State
  • Rose vs Wisconsin
  • Alamo vs Oklahoma
  • Alamo vs Baylor
  • Alamo vs Oklahoma State

https://twitter.com/folkestad3/status/1202806768557903872?s=20

Still with me? Need a bathroom break? Glass of water? Ok, let’s continue.

Conference Championship Games: Who do we want to win?

Here’s a guide for who to root for in all the other Power 5 conference championship games, in order of occurrence. All times are Pacific.

Big 12: #6 Oklahoma vs #7 Baylor – Saturday at 9 a.m. on ABC – Arlington, TX

Ducks won? Root for Baylor. If Utah’s out of the playoff, we don’t really care who takes their place, but we’d prefer it isn’t Oklahoma, who has a better shot than Baylor (based on pedigree and quality of loss). We don’t want a B12 team in the playoff so that the Utes play one of these two teams in the Alamo.

Ducks lost? Root for Baylor. The Bears are less likely to jump Utah, and if Oregon loses to Utah we want a Pac-12 team in the playoff so we can go to the Rose Bowl. If we get stuck in the Alamo Bowl, I’d rather play one of these teams in a competitive game than Oklahoma State.

SEC: #2 LSU vs #4 Georgia – Saturday at 1 p.m. on CBS – Atlanta, GA

Ducks won? Root for UGA. A Georgia win would most likely keep the Bulldogs in the playoff over the B12 champion. If we knock out Utah, they will be in the Alamo Bowl, and it’s better for the conference if they’re facing Oklahoma or Baylor.

Ducks lost? Root for LSU. If we lose, we want Utah in the playoff, and they won’t leap a potential SEC-champion-Georgia. Having Utah is good for the conference and puts us in the Rose Bowl.

ACC: #3 Clemson vs #23 Virginia – Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on ABC – Charlotte, NC

Ducks won? Root for Clemson. Following the same logic as the SEC matchup: if we eliminate Utah, we want the playoff solidified to cause more enticing Alamo Bowl matchups. I know it’s hard rooting against the underdogs, but in all seriousness, this is what’s best for us.

Ducks lost? Root for Virginia. Clemson is a four-touchdown favorite in this one, but on the off-chance they lose, it would open up the playoff picture and give us a better shot at the Rose Bowl.

BIG 10: #1 Ohio State vs #8 Wisconsin (Saturday at 5:00 p.m. on FOX)

Ducks won? Root for Ohio State. Again, I know it’s hard to root for Ohio State, but we want the Pac-12’s best to prove themselves this bowl season. Our hypothetical Rose Bowl opponent will be a good team, whether that’s Wisconsin or Penn State.

Ducks lost? Root for Ohio State. Utah’s not getting in over a 0- or 1-loss Ohio State, but a B12-champion Oklahoma might!

Let’s just beat Utah

…and go to the Rose Bowl! Regardless of what happens on Friday, though, this has already been a successful season. Of course I don’t wanna end up in the Alamo Bowl, but 10 wins is something to be proud of.

Did I miss anything? Do you agree with my reasoning that we should play the best team we can? I definitely believe we would compete with any team listed in the options above. What matchup would you like to see most? Maybe a Danny O’Neil Rose Bowl against Penn State? Wisconsin part 2? Give me your opinion in the comments or on Twitter (@folkestad3).

As always, thanks for reading and GO DUCKS!

December 6, 2019 0 comment
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A Duck fan’s Pac-12 Power Rankings of Hate

by Kevin Nesgoda November 18, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
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Being a Duck is fun. It’s unique. We win a lot (this century). But it comes with a cost, albeit small: Everyone hates us. Well, now it’s my turn to hate back.

This ranking will cover every program in the Pac-12, from 11 (the most likable) to 1 (the most detestable). I have taken everything I know about the program—its fans, history, coaches, players, whatever—into account. Sometimes my reasoning is short or flawed, but explanations are provided for each selection.

11. Utah

I really can’t find a reason to hate Utah. Yes, they destroyed us in Autzen a few years back, but that’s as much our fault as it is theirs. Almost everything I hear about their setting with Rice-Eccles Stadium and the Muss is positive, and I have a huge amount of respect for Kyle Whittingham.

10. Cal

Cal doesn’t really have die-hard fans, and that makes them a lot less hateable. They have given the Ducks a few sour moments in the past, such as the 2007 touchback debacle or faking injuries to slow down our offense in 2010, but overall they’re pretty much just another conference opponent. The Bay is cool, too.

9. Colorado

Boulder and Eugene have very similar “vibes” as far as campuses and student go. Many students who attend one also consider the other. From what I know, Colorado is a very beautiful place. Being mediocre will also help a program’s case on this list, and Colorado is usually not much more than that. I really liked Mike MacIntyre when he was there, too. Even if they look like Duracell batteries on the field, I usually don’t find myself rooting against the Buffs.

8. UCLA

If you hate UCLA because of Chip Kelly, I can only tell you that you’re a miserable, vengeful person (nothing personal). Chip didn’t leave us to coach them (like Willie Taggart did at Florida State). He bounced out of the NFL and landed on his feet in L.A. I can, however, hate UCLA because it’s in LA, and LA is annoying. See also: Neuheisel, Richard.

7. Arizona State

Maybe this comes with being the biggest college in the country, but Arizona State’s travelling fans are incredibly annoying. In the handful of ASU games I’ve been to at Autzen, Sun Devils fans were rude, loud, and angry (probably because they were losing). On the field, though, ASU hasn’t beaten us in consecutive years since I was 4 years old. Not much to hate there. I also like Herm Edwards a lot and find myself rooting for the Sun Devils to beat up on fellow Pac-12 North teams.

6. Washington State

The Cougs land this high almost solely because they are in the Pacific Northwest. Ducks and Cougs have a common enemy in UW, and only recently have they become competitive, taking a nice 11-year break from winning records (2004-2014) in my lifetime. Mike Leach is hilarious and although their Air Raid offense makes games last forever, it’s pretty entertaining.

5. Arizona

In my mind, Arizona fans will forever be remembered for storming the field too early in 2009. You just hate to see it. However, they have given the Ducks some stinging results in recent history, and seeing Mike Stoops in action was exhausting. Also, they injured Dennis Dixon and ruined our season in 2007.

4. Stanford

Stanford appears at #4 because they beat us when it mattered, including a championship-caliber Ducks squad in 2012. Simple as that. I respect the way they do things under David Shaw, and the only players of theirs I have disliked are all white linebackers for some reason (Shane Skov for being too good, Chase Thomas for the fake injury, and Owen Marecic for the fake hype). I can’t hate on the education or area very much, although I can (and have and will) clown on them for never filling their stadium.

3. USC

Some call them the University of Spoiled Children. I call them barely-relevant since Pete Carroll left. USC acts like it will be a powerhouse every season, even when they lose to Fresno State (no disrespect to the Bulldogs, but come on Trojans). Their lack of consistency gives people a reason to discount the Pac-12 every year. Overall, USC is so high on this list because they used to beat up on us, and now they can’t even put on for the conference.

2. Oregon State

The top two on this list should have been obvious, but the order has changed in recent years. Oregon State hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2013, and the Beavers are without a 10-win season since 2006. Beaver fans are as bitter as ever and try to get a leg up on Ducks whenever they can (even if it means flaunting College Baseball success). At least they know and admit they’re currently inferior, unlike…

1. Washington

Washington fans complaining that “Phil Knight’s Nike money paid the refs!” pretty much sums it all up. Jealous of Oregon’s strong national brand, Husky fans have convinced themselves that winning two Pac-12 titles and losing their only playoff appearance amounts to some sort of superiority (despite losing 14 out of the last 16 matchups). Hate Week has returned to a trash-talking buffet, complete with everything from a new celebration to fake Twitter accounts. It’s good to have a competitive rivalry against a fanbase with a pulse again (sorry Stanford).

So, do you like my list? Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments. Go Ducks!

November 18, 2019 0 comment
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Oregon vs Arizona: Quick-and-Dirty preview

by Kevin Nesgoda November 15, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
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The Oregon Ducks (8-1, 1st in Pac-12 North) will host the Arizona Wildcats (4-5, 5th in Pac-12 South) on Saturday, November 15th at 7:30 p.m. PT at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and streaming on the ESPN app and site.

A lot of talk this week surrounds how Oregon has put themselves in a great position to make it to the College Football Playoff. In order for this to happen, though, they’ll need some added help from fate. FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Predictions gives the Ducks the fourth-best chance of making the Playoff, although only at 35%. It’s safe to say that both the Ducks and Utah Utes need each other to win out before a meeting in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Consequently, Arizona plays both Oregon and Utah over the next two weeks. The Wildcats have the toughest remaining schedule in all of the conference with Arizona State looming in the Territorial Cup. They’re fighting for bowl eligibility, of course, but the chance to play spoiler is always an intriguing one. Winning the Territorial Cup might end up being Arizona’s biggest achievement this season, but we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss their chances in either of these next two matchups.

Kevin Sumlin has a .633 win percentage in his nearly 12-year career as a head coach.
Photo by DianeCMcDonald via Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 3.0]

Arizona employs a two-quarterback system of Senior Khalil Tate and Freshman Grant Gunnell. Duck fans will remember Tate for his role in upsetting a ranked Oregon in Tucson last year, but that’s not exactly a new trend. In the last three meetings between a ranked Oregon and unranked Arizona, the Wildcats have successfully played spoiler (2013, 2014, and 2018).

But back to Tate and Gunnell. Tate is the dual-threat guy, an established senior who’s been able to put up video-game numbers in some games. He’s a screen pass shy of 6,000 career passing yards right now and well over 2,000 rushing yards already. Despite Tate’s rushing threat (1400+ yds and 12 TDs on 9+ YPC in 2017), it was his backfield partner in crime—J.J. Taylor—who put up 228 yards and 2 TDs in Arizona’s 44-25 win over the Ducks last year.

Gunnell is a 6’6″, 225-lb freshman from Houston. Through six games he has 1,061 passing yards with 9 TDs and only 1 INT. He’s completing passes at a 66.4% clip. I’d imagine Arizona uses Gunnell and an Air Raid-style passing attack against Oregon as the Washington schools did. After all, they are the Pac-12 opponents who’ve had the greatest success against the Ducks so far. The flip side of this, of course, is the fact that the Ducks secondary has the most interceptions in the nation (17) and Autzen isn’t exactly the best place for a visiting freshman quarterback to shine. (I have a feeling we’ll be seeing more of him as Arizona’s QB of the future, though.)

Ok, so how could Arizona beat Oregon? How does a 4-5 team destined for a bowl-less season go on the road and defeat a playoff contender on an eight-game win streak?

The short answer is that they don’t. The longer answer is that either someone gets injured or the Ducks become completely unfocused over the bye week, which is highly unlikely with so many leaders on the team. I’m anticipating this will be the week everyone can turn #Pac12AfterDark off early, at least for this game.

Like I’ve said for the past eight games, Oregon knows they’re the better team. It all comes down to focus and execution. These are the games in which Mario Cristobal Co. needs to beat the spread, not just the team across from them.

The Ducks did so against Colorado and USC, but all other Pac-12 games have been tougher than expected, including those against clearly lesser opponents (Stanford, Cal, Wazzu). This Saturday’s spread is set at -27 for Oregon. I think that’s definitely a coverable spread and has been my personal goal for this game before I even looked it up.

I have to say, though, it’s kinda fun to be in competitive games sometimes. The 2010 days of steamrolling 90% of our schedule are over. This is a different program with a new identity. Instead of outrunning everyone to the end sone most of the time, we are a more balanced and physical squad. It may not be as appealing, but as long as it wins, it works for me.

Prediction: Ducks 59, Wildcats 17

November 15, 2019 0 comment
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Oregon-Colorado: A preview, of sorts

by Kevin Nesgoda October 10, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
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The 13th-ranked Oregon Ducks (4-1, 1st in Pac-12 North) will host the Colorado Buffaloes (3-2, 5th in Pac-12 South) on Friday night in Autzen Stadium. Colorado is coming off a crucial loss to Pac-12 South foe Arizona, while the Ducks seized control over the Pac-12 North with a home win against Cal and Washington’s loss to Stanford.

Fridays are usually for letting loose. School/work is over and you want to go home and get ready for a night of fun and recreation, whatever that may entail. This Friday will bring Pac-12 football to a TV or stadium near you. The vibe on campus is similar to that of a regular game, but the energy will be much different in the stadium. People are excited to start the weekend off with a bang—so get your (home)work done early!

In this article, I’ll cover Oregon’s history with midweek games, Colorado, and what to watch for on Friday.

Game Info

  • Who: Colorado Buffaloes @ #13 Oregon Ducks
  • Where: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR
  • When: 7pm PT, TV on FS1

Weeknight games: A love/hate relationship

Weeknight games are an interesting subject. They can be pivotal games, as in 2007, 2013 or 2014—but they can also be national showcases for beatdowns, as in the 2010 matchup with UCLA or the game against Cal the following year. The following is a complete chronological list of every regular season weeknight game the Ducks have participated in since their win over Colorado in the 2001-02 Fiesta Bowl:

  • 17-13 loss at Utah in 2003 (Friday)
  • 38-24 win at Houston in 2005 (Thursday)
  • 30-28 Civil War loss 2006 (Friday)
  • 24-34 loss to Arizona 2007 (Thursday)
  • 8-19 loss to Boise 2009 (Thursday)
  • 37-33 Civil War win 2009 (Thursday)
  • 60-13 win vs UCLA 2010 (Thursday)
  • 48-29 win vs Arizona 2010 (Friday)
  • 45-13 win vs Cal 2011 (Thursday)
  • 43-21 win at ASU 2012 (Thursday)
  • 20-26 loss at Stanford 2013 (Thursday)
  • 36-35 Civil War win 2013 (Friday)
  • 31-24 loss vs Arizona 2014 (Thursday)
  • 59-41 win at Cal 2014 (Friday)
  • 61-55 win at ASU 2015 (Thursday)
  • 52-42 Civil War win (Friday)
  • 49-52 loss at Cal 2016 (Friday)
  • 55-15 Civil War win 2018 (Friday)

That’s 11 wins and seven losses in eighteen games. Not really a stellar record. That includes a 6-4 record on Thursdays and a 5-3 one on Fridays. Very “meh.” The same attitude exists for consuming these games, both as a fan of a participant and neutrals. Weeknight matchups can be a lot of fun, and if you’re a football-starving soul searching for any nourishment they can get (like me), they can provide some much-needed entertainment a day or two early. Thursdays might be better for national consumption, but Fridays allow teams to be included in both surrounding Saturdays.

https://twitter.com/folkestad3/status/1182086803848720384?s=20

Ducks and Buffs

It’s been a while since Oregon and Colorado met. In the last decade-plus, Oregon has mainly used Colorado as a punching bag en route to a double-digit-win season, but the roles reversed the last time these two teams met. See below:

Oregon vs Colorado this century Result CU coach (season record) UO head coach (season record)
2001-02 Fiesta Bowl 38-16 Oregon Gary Barnett (10-3) Mike Bellotti (11-1)
2011 Pac-12 45-2 Oregon Jon Embree (3-10) Chip Kelly (12-2)
2012 Pac-12 70-14 Oregon Embree (1-11) Kelly (12-1)
2013 Pac-12 57-16 Oregon Mike MacIntyre (4-8) Mark Helfrich (11-2)
2014 Pac-12 44-10 Oregon MacIntyre (2-10) Helfrich (13-2)
2015 Pac-12 41-24 Oregon MacIntyre (4-9) Helfrich (9-4)
2016 Pac-12 41-38 Colorado MacIntyre (10-4) Helfrich (4-8)

While this would indicate a positive trend for Colorado, the reality is that these two programs haven’t played each other since the Mark Helfrich era. This 2019 season better resembles the bulk of the recent results so far.

Implications

Oregon is seen as the only Pac-12 team with a shot at the College Football Playoff, while Colorado enters with a 3-2 record after a 35-30 home loss to Arizona. Colorado’s season started strong enough, beating rivals Northern Colorado and a ranked Nebraska in consecutive weeks. However, they were humbled by an overtime loss to Air Force that required 13 fourth-quarter points for the Buffs to even stay in it.

Their first two conference games pitted Colorado against both Arizona schools. First, they earned a hard-fought win in the desert against Herm Edwards‘ ranked Sun Devils. However, the Buffs were exposed by Khalil Tate and Arizona at home the following week. Tate racked up 404 yards and three touchdowns, completing 31 of his 41 passes. Many of these were quick screens or shallow routes, but Colorado struggled to defend deep areas as well, giving up 75- and 33-yard touchdown passes. Both conference games had point totals of 65.

Colorado could have put themselves in the driver’s seat if they’d beaten Arizona, but they’re now nearing Pac-12 Championship exclusion for the eighth time in nine years with games against Washington State, Washington, USC, and Utah still remaining.

What to expect

Colorado has a lot of talent at wide receiver, with Senior Tony Brown adding to the production from star Juniors K.D. Nixon and Laviska Shenault Jr. All three wide-outs have had at least one 100-yard game each thus far, and Brown has had two. They have been bitten by the injury bug recently, though, and both Shenault and Dixon are still day-to-day, as are Russell Brady and Jalen Harris—Colorado’s first- and second-string tight ends.

Colorado’s fifth-year quarterback, Steven Montez, will be familiar to Duck fans from the 2016 matchup in Autzen. Back then, a redshirt freshman Montez was backing up injured starter Sefo Liufau, and the youngster didn’t disappoint. Montez threw three touchdowns as the Buffs beat the Ducks by three points. His 177.7 passer rating still ranks as his fourth-best performance against a Power 5 opponent. So far this season, Montez has thrown 10 TDs and two interceptions to go with his 67% completion percentage. He also has two more completions than Justin Herbert through five games.

Montez and the Colorado passing attack could be a dangerous weapon if the injuries aren’t too much to overcome, and will surely be fun to watch against Oregon’s nationally-ranked defense that has been the best in the Pac-12 thus far. Ducks Defensive Coordinator Andy Avalos called the Colorado offense Oregon’s “toughest challenge yet.”

The Buffs defense will certainly have to improve if they have any shot at upsetting the Ducks, though. Their unit is yet to concede less than 30 points against any foe in 2019. Add a couple starters—safety Mikial Onu and nose tackle Jalen Sami—to the list of day-to-day players that could have big impacts in this one. As Tate did last week, Justin Herbert will have to be his most disciplined self this week. Expect to see a lot of passing against a vulnerable Colorado secondary. One thing Colorado’s defense is good at, though, is forcing turnovers. They lead the conference with 2.4 turnovers per game, and this was a big issue for the Oregon offense last week.

Like the game against Cal, the Ducks will expect to win this game comfortably. Oregon is a three-touchdown favorite. Although I incorrectly predicted Oregon to beat the three-score spread last Saturday, the Ducks squandered four possessions on Cal’s end of the field in the first half—turning the ball over three times and missing a field goal—and still won by two scores. These first two turnovers occurred in the red zone and the Ducks could have had all the momentum early if not for the self-inflicted errors.

Prediction

To review: I expect the Ducks to pass the ball quite a bit and exploit some gaps in Colorado’s secondary. I also expect Steven Montez and the Colorado offense to compete well and score at least a touchdown, maybe two. It might be tough for the Ducks to cover this spread, but I still expect them to win comfortably and show some growth on offense: 31-13 Oregon.

All stats from sports-reference.com.

October 10, 2019 0 comment
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