Tag:

Oregon Ducks

Uncategorized

Former Oregon QB Tyler Shough transfers to Texas Tech

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

Oregon’s starting quarterback for the 2020 season, Tyler Shough, has completed a graduat transfer to the Big 12’s Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Shough entered the transfer portal earlier this month after having an up-and-down first season under new Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead.

With the emergence of graduate-transfer Anthony Brown from Boston College toward the end of last season and new freshman phenom Ty Thompson making his way onto campus, some speculated that the quarterback room was widening, while Shough’s chances of starting were shrinking. A legitimate quarterback competition is expected to take place this coming offseason between Brown, Thompson, and redshirt freshman Jay Butterfield.

Shough graduated in three years at Oregon, but still has three years of eligibility remaining: he’s technically still a redshirt sophomore after the NCAA granted everyone an extra year from 2020. There is a possibility he could play against the Ducks when the two programs match up in 2023.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

10 Oregon Recruiting Questions Heading into the 2021 Early Signing Period‬

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

‪1. Can Oregon get their commits signed?‬

‪-Keep the Mater Dei pipeline going and land a signature from top 150 player and defensive back headliner Jaylin Davies. All sounds solid here despite the decommitment from his friend and high school teammate Kyron Ware-Hudson. However, you simply never know in recruiting, and this is an important get for Oregon at a position of need. Fans won’t breathe easy until the signature is in.

-Hold off late pressure from Pac-12 rivals Washington and UCLA to land TE Moliki Matavao. Worth noting Oregon holds another 4-star TE commitment in Colorado product Terrence Ferguson. Ferguson is solid, and even has ducks tattooed on his forearm, so Oregon could survive this loss but it is far from ideal. 

‪-Overcome distance to sign the national guys (McNeill, Tilmon, David, Brevard)‬. Not all are the highest rated commits in this class, but they have been identified by takes by the staff and have a key role to play in this group. Plus, landing big players nationally builds your program’s brand in those areas and allows you to continue recruiting nationally.

‪-Ink your headliners! Troy Franklin, Ty Thompson, Kingsley Suamataia, Dont’e Thornton, Bram Walden, and others. There are no major worries here, but these guys are the foundation of this great class. You cannot let one flip this late or lose out to negative recruiting in this strange season. Again, this is recruiting, things are never over until there’s a signature (and even then sometimes it isn’t over).

My Take: The on-field trouble won’t tear apart this tight-knit group too much. If there is another decommitment, which I’m not saying there will be, it’s likely from Matavao. Davies is certainly a major piece to watch as well, but I feel better about his chances of signing with Oregon in part because of his social media positivity towards Oregon. If Cristobal inks the headliners and finishes off with Davies this class will be in a great spot. The departure of Matavao would be tough to take, right now I would say there’s roughly a 20% chance he flips as I write this, but I feel confident in Cristobal and co’s ability to line up contingency plans in that event. Moreover, open spots are a huge asset, both in what figures to be an active transfer market and for the 2022 class which will likely be tight on numbers. 

2. What should we make of the recent decommitments from Kyron Ware-Hudson, Jadarrius Perkins, and Christian Burkhalter?

-Ware-Hudson is a good player and a sizable loss. He particularly translates well to the college level and has elite hands. The decommitment was an issue of Covid and distance, it had little to do with on-field performance or a failure of the staff in recruiting. Also, Oregon has a loaded class at receiver with Franklin, Thornton, and Brevard. If they hang onto those 3 they will be more than alright. 

-Perkins is a hit at DB because that is a position group of need within the program right now. First, it raises the stakes for Davies. Second, because Perkins was a JUCO guy expected to have some immediate impact. This may mean Oregon adds a DB later this cycle or in the transfer market before 2021. But let’s be real, anyone in the know realized that this was going to be a fight to the end to sign Perkins even immediately after his commitment. It stings, but it happens in recruiting and the Ducks will be fine.

-Burkhalter’s departure was a mutual decision. He was exploring other options, but Oregon’s staff also felt this scholarship could be used better elsewhere. The way I see it, that’s good news. Burkhalter is a good player, and Oregon feels they have better ways to use a scholarship, then that may mean there is more in the works for the finish to this cycle, or the transfer market, or the 2022 class than some realize. Because make no mistake, there are many times in this program’s history where a guy like Burkhalter would’ve been a must take and there are many other programs in this conference who still see him as a must take. 

-The Burkhalter move also appears closely tied to Oregon’s expected addition of Jonathan Flowe, the younger brother of freshman LB and former 5 star Justin Flowe. This move still has some hurdles to overcome in terms of academic eligibility, which means Jonathan likely won’t sign until February. But it is an impressive pivot by the staff that provides an upgrade to depth and talent while solidifying Justin Flowe’s place in the program as well. 

My Take: These decommitments are fine and normal. There are clear explanations for each that should make duck fans understand that the sky is not falling. This staff still knows how to recruit. If it was Franklin or Thompson or Kingsley leaving then we should worry. But these losses are normal and a natural byproduct of recruiting nationally at a high level. Deep classes and long distances lead to decommitments, it’s that simple. 

‪3. Does Oregon’s late offer lead to an early decision from top 200 RB Byron Cardwell and is it the right move?‬

‪-In terms of the 2021 class, Cardwell would be a perfect closing piece to this amazing offensive group, providing a real every-down back‬ to compliment Seven Mcgee’s DAT-like playmaking. Mcgee will get some carries but is likely to also be used as a slot receiver and just a threat for explosive plays, so I think that fit with Cardwell works well.

-One also has to wonder how, or when, Cardwell finds his place in the RB rotation given the talent Oregon has added in recent years with Sean Dollars and Trey Benson. My philosophy is this, you take the talent and figure out who gets on the field later. Competition is never a bad thing, and at a position as important as running back you want to stack talent. Those hits can pile up on a back and you never know when you’ll need another guy to step up. In my opinion, running back is one of those spots where you try to take a good one each cycle, and Cardwell would certainly qualify as that.

‪-The buzz is Oregon may have taken the lead here for Cardwell (other threats are Cal, UCLA, Notre Dame)‬.

‪-Cardwell’s current scheduled commitment is January 25‬th, but don’t be shocked if this is moved up. 

‪My Take: For my money, Cardwell is the Ducks most likely *addition* during the early signing period‬. Is it a sure thing? No, I probably wouldn’t bet on it at the moment. I do believe Cardwell ultimately likely ends up in this class, but making this move so quickly from offer to signee would be an impressive feat even for Cristobal. 

‪4. Does Oregon hit a home run with an old friend & big name with a public announcement during the early signing period?‬

‪-First, who am I referencing? Ducks fans have been eager observers in the recruitments of big name targets OL Bryce Foster and DE Korey Foreman for some time‬, and each is set to announce in the next month.

‪-‬Is Oregon going to land either? The short answer is no. The Ducks are pretty much done for both of these guys. Oregon set up a solid foundation in both recruitments and were major factors at one time. 

-What changed? Well nothing really, and that was the issue. Oregon was lurking like they had with Thibodeaux and Flowe before, but simply never got the visit that could’ve sparked a dramatic shift in either recruitment. 

My Take: We can stop holding out hope on these two. Foster still has Oregon in his final group, but it would be really shocking to land him at this point. Both likely go down as more stories of what could’ve been in Oregon recruiting if this had been a non-covid year. 

 

5. How many spots will Oregon have left for the traditional signing period this spring and the likely-to-be busy transfer season?

-Oregon, like any program, can only add a maximum of 25 new scholarship athletes in a single year (there are some exceptions, but 25 is the hard number for this cycle).

-The 2021 class currently has 20 commits, if all of them sign that leaves 5 spots. Add Byron Cardwell and Jonathan Flowe, then you would only have 3 spots left. Lose a commit or two and you have more spots. The math is simple, but with so few places left in this prestigious group, each one will have a major impact on Cristobal and the staff’s plan going forward.

-As I mentioned, Jonathan Flowe is a guy that will likely commit before the Early Signing Period but is probably not going to sign at that time. So if his academics don’t come together that could open up a spot later in the cycle, although all indications are that that process is trending in the right direction.

My Take: Oregon will have somewhere from 3 to 6 spots open after the early signing period. If I had to bet, the most likely scenario right now is 20 commits sign, Jonathan Flowe commits but doesn’t sign, and the Ducks wait to finalize any other additions until later.

6. Will there be a silent commitment and signee?

-How this works is sometimes a prospect sends in his signature but wants to plan a public announcement for a later date. Last cycle, we saw this go down with Dontae Manning.

-Silent signees are always fun because rumors inevitably come out and recruiting insiders, coaches, and recruits love to drop hints.

-Who are the candidates? Sadly there aren’t many good ones this cycle. Cardwell could go the silent route. JT Tuimoloau and Ceyair Wright are obviously major targets, but both seem a ways away from a decision. Defensive line and defensive backs are both areas where Oregon could add someone, but no clear names seem close to pulling the trigger.

My Take: No silents this time around. Oregon has already filled up so much of the class with public commits and their primary targets aren’t quite ready to make a decision. It makes more sense to keep flexibility and open spots for the spring signing period and the transfer market.

7. What does the finish to this Oregon class look like after the Early Signing Period?

-This is a multi-step process. It starts with solidifying how many spots you have to work with by seeing who signs next week.

-Next, the staff goes all-in on Tuimoloau, Wright, and LSU transfer Siaki Ika. These are 3 elite prospects at positions of need. They are absolutely must-takes if you can get them, and Oregon should battle until they know they are out of it. We probably don’t lead for any of these guys at this moment but we are in a solid position for all of them. I believe we are firmly in the mix for Ika, but things have been relatively quiet on that front and we should hear more in the next month. We are still lurking for Wright and JTT (more on him in question 10) with probably somewhere around a 20% or 30% chance with each depending on who you ask. 

-Then the staff shifts focus to identify any solid depth pieces, likely at defensive line or defensive back. We don’t know those names yet really, but they’ll come out in the next month or so and the staff has a solid track record with identifying contributing pieces late in the cycle.

-One likely option to join this class is JUCO offensive lineman Jordan Moko. He’s a bit raw, but Cristobal loves his frame and believes he can turn Moko into an elite player with the right coaching.

-With any leftover spots Oregon moves to the transfer market, and likely targets an immediate contributor in the secondary, or maybe at the line of scrimmage at either side.

My Take: Cristobal and staff still have one big win left in them. They’ve done it the past 2 cycles, and so I am going to keep believing until proven otherwise. That guy could be Ika, or maybe distance becomes a factor for JTT late, or they can sell Ceyair Wright on the opportunity to play early. Byron Cardwell might sign early or he might wait, but I do think Cardwell likely ends up in this class. I think Moko likely ends up in this class too. Then, depending on spots left, Oregon looks to add an immediate impact transfer or identify a potential contributor down the road at a position of need on the defensive side.

8. Will the Pac-12’s inept leadership and indecision resulting in a shortened season have an effect on Oregon’s recruiting?

-Not this season. Cristobal and this staff are elite recruiters who haven’t shown any signs of slowing down. 

-Let’s remember, earlier this decade there were times when the Pac-12 had a legitimate claim as the second-best conference in college football. Things are fluid but they certainly aren’t trending in the right direction.

-That said, a conversation is going to need to happen if the perception of the Pac-12 continues deteriorating to the point where we lose our status as a power 5 conference altogether. Change starts with Pac-12 programs securing talent within the west coast footprint. 

-If things don’t change, then I believe there is nothing marrying Oregon to the Pac-12 long term. It would be sad to see Oregon leave the conference, but it seems there is potential for some major realignment in college football going forward this decade. Who knows exactly what that realignment would look like, there are a lot of options but that’s an entirely different conversation.

My Take: Oregon has established itself as enough of a college football brand that I believe they will find a way to maintain relevance in the sport and on the recruiting trail so log as they are willing to dedicate the necessary resources. This probably takes one of two paths. Either Oregon can elevate its play and make it back to the playoff, which would dramatically improve t
he perception of the conference in my opinion (the same would be true if USC made the playoff). Or Oregon ultimately realizes this conference isn’t taking football seriously enough to put us in a position to compete, and we find a better option along with USC and whoever else wants to come.

9. Does this cycle prove the importance of visits to Oregon’s recruiting strategy under Cristobal?

-The conventional wisdom in the early spring was that Oregon was going to take a big recruiting hit because of the visit restrictions. However, after an amazing run throughout the summer, that narrative was basically put to rest.

-More recently, as big recruitments of top targets Bryce Foster and Korey Foreman have trended away from the Ducks, more questions have been raised about what this cycle could have looked like with visits. 

-I think those questions are legitimate, but they likely don’t matter much after this season. Visits will be back in the recruiting world soon enough, and Oregon will be able to leverage that strength to their advantage again. I’m not an expert in this area, but most seem to believe 2022 prospects will be allowed to visit at some point. 

-Part of the staff’s success this cycle was because they did such a good job of getting prospects on campus before the shutdown. They had all the infrastructure in place and capitalized on it. 

My Take: Oregon has a great track record with successful visits but they showed an ability in this cycle to land big targets without relying on visits down the stretch. As Oregon has more success on the field, they will only increase their ability to get prospects on campus and capitalize on those opportunities. Normal visits will eventually return to the recruiting world and they will regain their importance. Oregon is in a great position whenever that happens, but they also have shown the ability to adapt to whatever circumstances come their way on the recruiting trail. 

10. Does Oregon finish with a top 5 class when all is said and done?

-Top 5 has long been the aspiration for this Oregon class. That number doesn’t mean everything, but it would be symbolic of Cristobal’s ability to recruit talent to Eugene on par with any other program in the country. Personally, it was a mark I targeted early in the cycle when it became clear Oregon had a legitimate shot to get there. Now the Ducks are deep in contention.

-What does Oregon need to get there? Step one, sign the guys we have. Step two, add a few more solid pieces to fill out the class. Step three, and this is the really important one, land one more “big fish.” Some other things need to break right for Oregon in terms of how other programs finish, but if the Ducks can do those three things they will be in a great spot. At this point, everyone should know who that final big name I’m referencing is. So here it goes, the latest on 247’s top-rated recruit in the country, defensive lineman JT Tuimoloau…

–*ATTENTION* JTT UPDATE HERE: There was a report Sunday from Adam Gorney of Rivals which said the JTT recruitment had shifted and it was now Alabama one and Oregon a close two. Brandon Huffman at 247, who is by far the closest insider to the Tuimoloau recruitment, addressed the Rivals report by saying he strongly disagreed, and instead is highly confident that Ohio State is in the lead, and Alabama then Oregon is lurking. Huffman did say that he believes Oregon would be the choice over Washington and USC if Tuimoloau decides to stay on the west coast. Justin Hopkins at Scoopduck still believes JTT ends up out West at Oregon. So what should we make of all this? Well we do at least know this recruitment is a ways from being over and that Oregon is in the top 3. It is mainly just a wait and see at this point, hopefully as things progress JTT will start to think about the benefits of staying closer to home on the west coast. But the Rivals report is not entirely insignificant. In my opinion, it does firmly solidify that we are at least contenders, and it is some of the first positive buzz that we have heard in a while. It is Adam Gorney’s job to cover this stuff, so you have to imagine he is basing his report off of some source close to the recruitment that at least believes Oregon has a real shot. That said, Huffman still knows this recruitment best and I think we should trust his characterization of where things stand right now. So like I said, Oregon is probably at a 20% to 30% chance for JTT right now.

My Take: Betting on a top 5 finish at this point might be a little over-eager given all the variables that need to break the right way. I am pretty confident that Oregon will land in that 4 to 8 range, which is exactly where we want to be to continue elevating the standard of this program. Honestly, my advice to duck fans at this point would just be to enjoy the ride the rest of the way this cycle. Being in the fight for a top 5 class is a dream for Oregon. We should enjoy seeing those signatures come in on Wednesday and enjoy the battle for JTT, Ika, Cardwell, Wright, and whoever else down the stretch. It’s a great time to be a duck!


[Cover image by John Martinez Pavliga via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)]

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Colorado, Oregon, USC all 2-0 after second week of Pac-12 action

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda


shield on field.png

For the second straight week, two games were canceled due to Covid-19, but this time around, teams were able to plan ahead and save a pair of teams from having to stay home again. UCLA and Cal, scheduled to face Utah and Arizona State, respectively, instead faced off with each other Sunday. It was another entertaining weekend of games, with three of the five coming down to the final possession.

Here’s a rundown of the last weekend’s game from the Pac-12:

USC 34, Arizona 30

USC survived yet another early season scare from an Arizona school, narrowly escaping against the Wildcats, 34-30 on the road. A week ago, USC nearly fell to Arizona State in the first conference test of the season. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late catch inside the 10-yard line set up the game-winning 8-yard touchdown run by Vavae Malapeai to give the Trojans the lead with 25 seconds left in the game. Arizona’s Grant Gunnel went 24/36 for 286 yards, three TDs, and a pick; while Kedon Slovis threw 30/43 for 325 yards and one score. – Charlie Folkestad

UCLA 34, Cal 10

UCLA overcame a slow start to pull away big from the Golden Bears. Dorrian Thompson-Robinson looked great for the Bruins, while his opposition in Justin Wilcox’ defensive unit was underwhelming. The Cal offense led by Chase Garbers wasn’t much better. Of course, there were many strange circumstances with this matchup with it being played on Sunday and not even announced until mid-week. We’ll learn a lot more about whether this result was an outlier or an accurate representation of both programs as conference play moves forward. Cal particularly will have to rebound quickly if they want to restore their preseason status as a dark horse in the Pac-12 North race. Meanwhile, UCLA gets to see if they are for real next week when they travel to Eugene to meet the defending conference champs.  – Reid Tingley

Colorado 35, Stanford 32

For a second straight week Colorado was able to hold off a late rally and are now 2-0 and tied for the South Division lead. QB Sam Noyer (291 total yards, 4 TD) and RB Jarek Broussard (121 yards) proved their debuts were no fluke, putting up points with ease against a ragged Stanford defense. The Cardinal dropped to 0-2, largely in part to a porous defense, sluggish run game (70 yards on 21 carries) and an inability to threaten downfield. Davis Mills passed for 327 yards but needed 56 attempts and 31 completions to do so. Stanford also struggled on third down, converting just 5/16 attempts. – Cliff Gibson

Oregon 43, Washington State 29

This was one of those games that offered encouraging signs for both teams. The Cougs hung with the conference’s best for 3 quarters and moved the ball on a talented Oregon defense. On the other side, Oregon exorcised some of their own demons from the past 5 years of this matchup. The Ducks turned the ball over 3 times early but showed the ability to turn it around and pull away late. Oregon is going to need to show some defensive improvement, particularly in their tackling, if they want to reach their ceiling as a playoff contender. However, many other teams around the country have shown defensive struggles early this year as a result of the abnormal offseason. Also, don’t look now, but Rolo has Wazzu looking like a top 3 team in the North in just his first season. – Reid Tingley

Washington 27, Oregon State 21

The Jimmy Lake era started with a win, but it wasn’t pretty. The Huskies fell behind on the first series when a high snap on a punt led to a scoop-and-score by the Beavers. A strong running game enabled Washington to get in front before the end of the opening period, and never trail again. Oregon State managed just 252 total yards and lost two turnovers. The Huskies ran for 267 yards, converted 8/16 third downs and did not turn the ball over. Redshirt freshman Dylan Morris got the start for UW, completing 14/24 for 141 yards. Sean McGrew ran for 91 yards and a score. — Cliff Gibson

Rankings

Oregon remained at #11 and USC stayed at #20 in this week’s AP Top 25 poll. Utah, Washington and Arizona State received votes.

Next Week (All games on Saturday)

UCLA at Oregon, TBD

Cal at Oregon State, 12:30 pm

Arizona at Washington, 5 pm

USC at Utah, 7:30 pm

Washington State at Stanford, 8 pm

Arizona State at Colorado — Canceled (Covid-19)

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Can Oregon Finally Cover WSU? Ducks vs Cougs Preview and Predictions

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Ducks walked away from week one with an impressive 35-14 win over the Stanford Cardinal. Many of the fans’ big questions heading into the year were answered in week one. Tyler Shough got the start at QB and looked good for the majority of the game. The Ducks completely overhauled offensive line was really impressive, allowing just one QB hurry and leading the way for 269 yards on the ground.

This weekend, Oregon shifts their attention to a road trip to Pullman. There have been some Covid issues with the Cougs, but they seem to be managing things well enough to play this weekend and to have put a competitive product on the field vs the Beavs. It’s still unclear what all of Washington State’s availability will look like heading into Saturday. Most notably, the status of the Cougs star running back Max Borghi is still up in the air. Those in the know are saying they don’t believe Borghi will be available Saturday, but we’ll just have to wait and see when kickoff rolls around. 

Another major storyline, particularly from a betting perspective, is that our Ducks have failed to cover the spread against Washington State in 10 straight matchups. Obviously, Oregon has lost 4 of the past 5 to Wazzu, something that would’ve been unthinkable just a decade ago. However, the Oregon program is in the process of building back a stable culture under Cristobal, while Washington State has made a major transition away from long time coach Mike Leach, and towards first-year man Nick Rolovich. Anyways, without further adieu, let’s get into it. 

Oregon Offense vs Washington St Defense

I’ll start with a weather report: it’s looking like Saturday night might be characterized by cold temperatures, sleet, and slush in Pullman. If that’s the case, then Oregon will need to “pack its physicality” as Cristobal likes to say. Establishing the run will be absolutely crucial for the Ducks, more on that in a second. Generally, Washington State is feeling good about their improvements on defense under new coordinator Jake Dickert from Wyoming. That optimism, however, didn’t exactly materialize for the Cougs last week. Particularly, Jermar Jefferson of OSU had a great game, going for 170 total yards and 3 TDs en route to the Beavers putting up 28 points. Also, while the Wazzu D-line was able to force some QB pressures last week, the interior of that D-line has been affected by some of the covid availability issues I had mentioned earlier. All this suggests that Oregon will, and should, place a premium Saturday on running the ball. The Ducks offensive line played quite well against Stanford, giving legitimacy to many fans’ belief that Cristobal and Mirabal will work their magic regardless of how many new faces they have. We all remember CJ Verdell’s breakout performance against the Cougs last year when he went 314 total yards and 3 touchdowns! It was a career-best performance from Verdell, and the Ducks needed every bit of it. Again in 2020, I’ll expect a heavy dose of Verdell, and some rotation from the other 3 backs. I’m especially hoping to get Sean Dollars more involved after his impressive offseason and fall camp. 

In the passing game, Oregon will likely pick its spots with this being Tyler Shough’s first road start. I feel very confident in the play we saw in week one from Oregon’s top 3 receivers in Pittman, Redd, and Johnson. Largely, the Oregon offense executed really well vs Stanford, and execution will be key again on Saturday. Moorhead’s group only punted on one drive all game, and it was the first of the season. The Oregon offense also went an absurd 9 for 11 on 3rd down. Shough had a few throws he wishes he could have back in his debut, one of which was actually taken away by the Cardinal. Then, Cyrus Habibi-Likio had a freak fumble after losing his footing on a 1st and 10 in the red zone. That’s one of those plays you just can’t predict and it probably took 7 points off the board for Oregon. Regardless, that type of sustained success and improvement throughout a game is something that we very rarely experienced during Marcus Arroyo’s time in Eugene. Overcoming a 2 turnover deficit and still winning comfortably against a David Shaw coached team is nothing to scoff at. If this Ducks offense can play with that level of consistency in their execution, then we will really start to look like the type of team that can go unbeaten through Pac-12 play. 

To summarize, we saw Oregon State put up 28 on the Cougars D last weekend, while the Ducks put up 35 on Stanford (and could’ve had more). Obviously, there’s more complexity than this, but if I have to choose I would say Oregon has a better offense than OSU, mainly because of Oregon’s advantage in the trenches. Defensively, I also think Washington State is worse than Stanford, mainly because I’m not willing to disrespect David Shaw to that degree. So doing some quick calculations, you would expect Oregon to score in the upper 30s or even low 40s. I’m going to deviate from that slightly because I believe Oregon will want to run the ball a lot, which bleeds clock, and that the weather conditions could also tamper the scoring totals a bit.  

Oregon Defense vs Washington St Offense

This side of the ball presents some very intriguing matchups. A lot has been made from Ducks fans about the team’s underwhelming pass rush in week one. Expectations were high with big-name recruits like Mase Funa and Kayvon Thibodeaux figuring to develop into full-blown stars and game wreckers entering their second season. Add those guys to returning names on the interior like Jordon Scott and Austin Faoliu, seasoned linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia, and the hyped 5-star freshman linebacker duo of Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell. There was plenty of reason to believe the pass rush would be a strength of Avalos’s defense. Through one game, it didn’t show up on the stat sheet. However, I would seriously caution Ducks fans from drawing sweeping conclusions based on a box score, and instead suggest that you place the unit’s performance in its appropriate context. Especially once we learned Stanford QB Davis Mills was going to be out last Saturday, it was always going to be difficult to fill up the stat sheet with sacks and pressures. Stanford already leans heavily on their power run game and that tendency makes those 3rd and long passing situations, that sharks like Kayvon love so much, all the rarer. Those excuses, as valid as they may be, will not available to Oregon after this Saturday. The obstacles to Oregon applying consistent pressure and even getting home for a few sacks on Saturday will not be scheme based so much as they will be personnel based. Washington State trots out a pair of NFL caliber tackles and a mobile, gunslinging freshman QB Jayden de Laura, who impressed in his debut.

To help the passing attack, de Laura has a very solid receiver group to work with. Travell Harris broke out for 107 and 2 TDs last week, Renard Bell was a solid contributor with 6 catches, and Calvin Jackson Jr came up with a pair of big catches in key moments. The Oregon corners looked pretty solid last week. Dede Lenoir was in lockdown mode as if an NFL corner had just been put on a college field. On the other side, Stanford tried to pick on Mykael Wright a few times, but he stood up tall and consistently found a way to get his hand on the ball against bigger receivers. This week will likely present some new challenges for the Oregon secondary, however, but I am optimistic about Rod Chance’s ability to get his guys ready based on what we saw in week one. One p
otential x-factor for the Oregon defense is redshirt sophomore linebacker, Adrian Jackson. Fans didn’t get to see Jackson last season while he was dealing with an injury, but he is one of those guys who is an athletic freak. Ajax (as I prefer to call him) was the top player in the state of Colorado coming out of high school and played primarily wide receiver and strong safety at that level. Now he stands at 6’3”, 235, but still moves with elite speed. Whether we see Ajax as a game wrecking edge rusher or a guy who can cover and run with Washington State running backs coming out of the backfield, he’s a guy I will be watching closely in this matchup. 

The last thing that needs to be mentioned is that this is not Mike Leach’s offense in Pullman. The Cougs will not be running an air raid on Saturday, Rolovich will instead be calling his run and shoot offense. From the foundational X’s and O’s perspective, these two schemes are quite different. No stat bares that out more clearly than the 18 carries and 147 yards we saw from Wazzu RB Deon McIntosh last Saturday, the most a Cougar back has rushed for in a single game since 2007. As I mentioned above, star Wazzu back Max Borghi may be out Saturday although nothing is official yet. That will certainly be a hit to the Cougs chances, but McIntosh and others showed they are capable contributors in week one. They will need to be contributors Saturday because as the name “run and shoot” would suggest, establishing the run is a crucial part of Rolo’s attack. At times against Stanford, the Oregon run defense left a lot to be desired. Honestly, I believe that if there is a single area to be concerned about after week one for the Ducks, it is the run defense. Jordon Scott, Austin Faoliu, Brandon Dorlus, and others need to assert themselves on the interior. Those guys are big, talented, and experienced, they absolutely have what it takes to control the line of scrimmage in this conference. At the next level, Oregon’s got to improve at the linebacker spot in being sound with communication and assignments so that the holes are plugged and running backs can’t break out. It makes sense, Oregon lost a 4-year defensive leader at the linebacker spot in Troy Dye. A big key to his replacement, in my mind, is the emergence of true freshman Noah Sewell. Anyone who watched the game last weekend saw it. Just like his older brother before him, Noah Sewell is destined to be a star in Eugene. His instincts, size, and speed were evident immediately vs Stanford. If I’m a coach, and certainly they have a lot more authority to make these decisions than I, but if I’m a coach I am putting Noah Sewell on the field for as many plays as I can. 

Final Prediction

Oregon 35, Washington State 24. Ultimately, I think the Ducks advantage in physicality and depth will show by the end of this game. Looking at the matchups I feel pretty solid about where the Ducks stand going into this one. 2 things make me cautious, and prevented me from picking Oregon to pull away by 3 or more scores. First, the weather Saturday could be weird… Cold, wet, icy, and maybe even some snow. I think Oregon can adapt to those conditions well because of our run game, but I also think that those conditions typically lead to games being played a little closer. The second factor is that Oregon has failed to cover the spread against Wazzu for 10 straight years! We’ve lost 4 out of the last 5 to the Cougs. Something a little weird always seems to happen in this matchup, and I usually find myself feeling a lot less comfortable into the second half than I wish I was. We’ll see what happens Saturday, as long as the Ducks can walk away at 2-0 then I’ll be happy. Go Ducks!

[cover by WSU Marketing via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)]

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Pac-12 hoping full slate is played in full after last weekend’s cancellations

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

Utah-UCLA game most likely to be affected by COVID-19 concerns


shield on field.png

The Pac-12 Conference heads into its second week of action, hoping to play a full slate of games after having a pair of games canceled last weekend due to COVID-19 concerns. As entertaining as that weekend turned out to be, conference officials and fans alike are hoping to see ALL of its teams in action Saturday. Here’s a look at Saturday’s scheduled games:

USC at Arizona, 12:30 pm on FOX

The 20th-ranked Trojans not only have the upper hand in talent, but in live game action as well. USC (1-0) came from behind last weekend to beat Arizona State, but Arizona had to sit in a holding pattern as its game against Utah was canceled. QB Grant Gunnell and the Wildcats will have to get off to a fast start and shake off the rust early if they want to keep up with USC. Despite turnover and tackling issues, the Trojans showed their resolve and planted a firm foothold at the top of the South Division.


Colorado RB Jarek Broussard ran for 187 yards and three scores in his debut last week and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week.

Colorado RB Jarek Broussard ran for 187 yards and three scores in his debut last week and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week.

Colorado at Stanford, 12:30 pm on ESPN

It would be selfish to ask for the same production from Colorado QB Sam Noyer and RB Jarek Broussard (Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week) following their brilliant debuts last week against UCLA. But the Buffs (1-0) will need the pair to stand out again if they want to get to 2-0. Stanford (0-1) would like nothing more than to get back to business at home and do what they do best – grind opponents down with a balanced attack. This might end up being the conference’s best game of the weekend. For live coverage, follow @cliffcgibson on Twitter.

Oregon at Washington State, 4:00 pm on FOX

I’m interested to see just how the Cougars (1-0) do against 11th-ranked Oregon (1-0) with true freshman Jayden de Laura getting his first real test, one week after passing for 227 yards, rushing for 43 and accounting for a pair of scores. Meanwhile, the Ducks chewed up yardage on the ground against Stanford, with CJ Verdell leading the way with 105 yards and QB Tyler Shough adding 85. The Ducks are 14-0 under Mario Cristobal when holding opponents under 25 points.

California at Arizona State, 7:30 pm on ESPN2

The Sun Devils (0-1) were the better team last week against USC for 56 minutes, forcing turnovers and gashing the Trojans with the run game. But the inability to close it out cost them dearly and will likely keep ASU out of the conference title game. QB Jayden Daniels ran for 111 yards, marking the fifth time in school history a QB has eclipsed the 100-yard mark. Cal will be rearing to go after having its season-opener with Washington canceled due to quarantine protocol in Berkeley last week. However, the program is discussing relocating for the remainder of the season and seems unlikely they won’t be affected by the lingering distractions.


Week 2 picks.png

Utah at UCLA, 7:30 pm on FOX

Of the six games scheduled this weekend, this one seems the most likely to fall victim to a COVID-19 cancellation, seeing how there are still concerns with at least six positive cases reported by the Utah program. If the Utes are able to finally open their season, they’ll have their hands full containing UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who passed for 303 yards through the air and 109 on the ground, the first player in UCLA history to accomplish that feat. Despite a valiant second-half effort, the Bruins (0-1) turned the ball over five times in the first half and fell in a 28-point hole.

Oregon State at Washington, 8:00 pm on FS1

Had it not been for the City of Berkeley’s strict COVID protocols, the Huskies would’ve played their scheduled opener last week at Cal. Instead, Jimmy Lake’s head coaching debut was pushed back a week, and now it’s at home where Washington will take on the Beavers (0-1) in a #Pac12AfterDark matchup. However, it’s still uncertain (and is expected be a game-time decision) who will get the start at QB for the Huskies. Jacob Sirmon, Kevin Thomson, Ethan Garbers, and Dylan Morris are all in the mix. Oregon State was torched at home by Washington State, allowing 229 yards on the ground and 227 through the air. For live coverage, follow @cliffcgibson on Twitter.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Trojans’ late rally tops entertaining opening week of Pac-12 football

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The long wait for Pac-12 football season did not disappoint, unless you happened to be a fan of either of the four teams who had games canceled due to COVID-19. But even those fans had to appreciate a wildly entertaining first weekend of conference games, with one thrilling comeback in Los Angeles, a high-scoring affair in Boulder, business as usual in Eugene, and an upset in Corvallis.

I was more than happy with the product on display Saturday, despite not getting a chance to see my Huskies in action (thanks, City of Berkeley). But, thanks to my fellow Pac-12 colleagues, we had the entire weekend covered for you. Let’s look back at a great opening weekend.

USC 28, Arizona State 27

The Trojans gave up an alarming 258 yards on the ground, turned the ball over four times and trailed 27-14 with three minutes to play … and still won. I’m not sure if this says more about the Trojans’ resolve or the inability of the Sun Devils to close out a big game. Either way, it was one heck of a way to start the conference schedule. Kedon Slovis (381 yards, 2 TD) hit two big scoring plays in the final minutes to give USC the come-from-behind win, but poor tackling and ball security were an issue the Trojans will need to address if they want to avoid another scare. – Cliff Gibson

Oregon 35, Stanford 14

Oregon beat Stanford 35-14 Saturday afternoon in Eugene behind new Ducks quarterback Tyler Shough, who threw for 227 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. CJ Verdell had a game-high 105 rushing yards and 1 TD on 20 carries, while Shough added 85 yards and a score of his own on the ground. Oregon’s presumed fourth-string tight end—DJ Johnson—led the offense with five catches and a TD. Mykael Wright, Noah Sewell, and Deommodore Lenoir impressed on defense; holding Stanford backup Jack West to 154 yards. The Cardinal jumped out to a 7-0 lead before conceding 28 straight points while senior Jet Toner missed four field goals. – Charlie Folkestad

Colorado 48, UCLA 42

In what may have been the most entertaining game of the weekend, a couple of Colorado debuts were the key to the Buffs’ thrilling win over Chip Kelly and the Bruins. Jarek Broussard ran for 187 yards and three scores in his first career start and QB Sam Noyer looked great in his first start for the Buffs, passing for 257 and rushing for 64 more with two total scores. Colorado ran up 525 yards of offense on the night. The Bruins, meanwhile, erased a 35-7 deficit after some incredibly sloppy play but could never overcome a minus-4 in the turnover column, despite 412 yards and 5 total TDs from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. – Cliff Gibson

Washington State 38, Oregon State 28

There were things to be encouraged about for both sides, the first being that Wazzu has found a quarterback in true freshman Jayden de Laura. The new Cougar offense seemed to have many of the same characteristics that we’ve become familiar with and the Cougs established a solid run game despite the absence of Max Borghi. The Beavers continue to have reason to be optimistic about their offensive development. Jermar Jefferson had some special flashes in his performance, going for 170 total yards and 3 TDs on the day. QB Tristan Gebbia looked capable as well and spread the ball around well to a lot of solid options at receiver. The offensive line play wasn’t great for Oregon State, but they still managed to stay in this game until the end. – Reid Tingley

CANCELED – California vs Washington, Utah vs Arizona

Rankings

Oregon moved up a spot in this week’s AP Top 25 to #11, while USC held firm at #20. Arizona State, California, Utah, and Washington all received votes.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Can the Ducks Start with a win? Oregon vs Stanford Preview and Predictions

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

Oregon fans have been conditioned to have a healthy level of respect and fear over the past decade or so when the annual matchup with the Stanford Cardinal comes around. These two programs have yielded some excellent college football games in recent memory, each spoiling legitimate national title hopes for the other side on multiple occasions.

The iconic clash of styles was always what made this matchup so intriguing. It was the bull vs the matador, size vs speed, power vs spread. From 2010 through 2015, the Stanford Cardinal went to 5 BCS or NY6 bowl games in 6 years. In 2019, they finished at the bottom of the Pac-12 North, going 3-6 in conference. Despite all the respect that David Shaw has rightfully earned, something is a bit off in Palo Alto. 

Oregon Offense vs Stanford Defense

Here’s my take: this isn’t the same Stanford team most of us Ducks remember. Specifically, this isn’t the same Stanford defense. What’s more, they’re dealing with a couple of key losses on the defensive side in this game specifically. Peaking behind the enemy wall on some Stanford message boards on 247Sports (I know it’s tough to believe they even have message boards given what that attendance usually looks like at the farm), you don’t exactly get a sense of confidence from this fan base in the defensive product they will be putting out Saturday. 

On the defensive line, they lose Michael Williams and Jovan Swann, guys that figured to be heavily involved in the rotation up front. The biggest loss is star cornerback Paulson Adebo, who was no doubt a bright spot for the Cardinal a year ago (Todd McShay even had Adebo going in the late 1st round of a recent 2021 mock NFL Draft). Stanford also loses their number two corner to injury this week. Additionally, injuries and departures have delivered blows to Stanford at inside linebacker, leaving them a bit thin and under experienced. Then-starting outside linebacker senior Gabe Reid was determined to be likely out for the Oregon game. All this is before we even mention Stanford’s safety group, arguably the biggest question mark for the team, and not the type of question mark where a handful of really good 4 stars are competing for the spot. The safety spot is a genuine area of worry for Stanford fans. So, you get the picture, this isn’t the same type of dominant Stanford defense that was so often featured as a top ten unit nationally during the early 2010s. 

Now, unfortunately, Oregon isn’t quite their 2012 selves on offense either. If they were, then the Ducks would be putting up 50 this Saturday, at least. Much has been made about Oregon’s question marks on the offensive side coming into 2020. Three spots in particular: The Ducks have a new quarterback, they replace their top-6 offensive linemen from last season, and they’re working in a new offensive scheme under Joe Moorhead. 

I’ll go through these one by one. First, the QB spot, everyone wants to know about this one but honestly I’m not sure what new info I can really give you. I expect Tyler Shough to get the start, and I think he can play well. Everything out of the program sounds like we have confidence in this guy. He’s a leader, he’s got some swagger, and I think he’s ready to show some people. But, you never really know until you see a guy take snaps when the lights are on in a competitive Power 5 matchup. We’ve been told Lockie, Prukop, Burmeister, and others were capable QBs in the past, but have found that those guys couldn’t get us where we needed to go come game time. The nice thing is that Oregon has a backup option that has shown success at the Power 5 level, Boston College transfer Anthony Brown. To my mind, Brown offers a solid floor for this team. If Shough busts or has to be out for whatever reason, I believe Brown can get the job done. Really, I believe we can win any game in this conference with Anthony Brown. However, if this program has any intention of competing in a College Football Playoff this season, Shough is the one that needs to get it done. Shough has the potential to be really special, and we’ll get a clear window into how special he can become Saturday. The quarterbacks also get some help from a capable returning receiver group, particularly the top 3: Johnny Johnson III, Jaylon Redd, and Mycah Pittman. I have the utmost confidence in these three guys, each one has shown the ability to control games at this level. JJ3 was the best player on the field at times vs Arizona St and Utah. Redd is a touchdown machine and an explosive weapon from the slot. Mycah Pittman is just a dog, his talent and mentality speak for themselves, and I expect those ingredients plus an increase in playing time to translate into a breakout sophomore season for him. If Shough can get a rhythm going with these three receivers, he should be able to pick apart and relatively weak Stanford secondary. 

Of course, an effective passing game requires capable offensive line play, which brings me to Oregon’s next potential area of concern. Everyone knows the losses Oregon is dealing with up front. From a national perspective, people tend to see question marks and assume weakness. That’s understandable, they don’t have the ability to follow this program year around the same way we do. What I want to do, is give people a quick idea of who this starting O line group will likely be, and why it’s worth believing that this unit is capable of competing in the Pac-12. The first 2 guys are long term program guys, center Alex Forsyth and tackle George Moore. They’ve got big bodies, and have spent years under Cristobal doing the mental reps and practice reps necessary to be prepared to lead this unit come Saturday. Malaesala Aumuvae-Laulu and TJ Bass are likely to fill the two guard spots Saturday. Sala is a huge presence, at 6’6 325. TJ Bass is a nasty blocker, a guy many have compared to Shane Lemieux. Likely the best player on this O line is tackle Steven Jones. Jones has been groomed as the replacement for Penei Sewell and the consensus is that he would have been a capable starter last year had the Ducks rotation not been so full. Duck fans have been excited to see Jones get regular playing time for a while now, and this Saturday I expect to see him make his presence felt. So is this an A+ group at O line? No, of course it isn’t and especially not this early in the season. However, I certainly am of the belief that this group can be very competitive in the conference and that Cristobal will make sure it delivers the effort necessary to keep Oregon on track. 

Then there’s Joe Moorhead’s scheme. Duck fans are largely optimistic that Moorhead will be an upgrade to Oregon’s playcalling. Everything from the program has said since the start of camp that this offense was ahead of schedule on their install and that people had been impressed with Moorhead as a new addition to the staff. But, like so many things, we’ll just have to see come Saturday. If the Ducks put out a polished offensive product, they should be able to move the ball vs Stanford pretty consistently. If execution is an issue early, we may need to rely on CJ Verdell and just hope that this O line can get the necessary push in run block. Overall, I expect the Ducks to have an advantage when they have the ball on Saturday, the degree to which that advantage translates to points will depend on their execution and the chemistry this team has built through a difficult offseason. 

Oregon Defense vs Stanford Offense

On offense, Stanford does lose their top offensive lineman Walker Little, but outside of th
at, the offensive line is expected to be very solid for Stanford. They will need to be to hold up against this Oregon front 7 (or more often front 6 given Avalos’s affinity for nickel). Kayvon Thibodeaux, Adrian Jackson, and Mase Funa (among others) need to force pressure. Or I guess I should say, that if they are able to consistently force pressure, they will define how this game goes. If Kayvon alone comes out and looks like the best edge rusher in the country Saturday, he could potentially shut the book on this game himself. That sounds hyperbolic, but the reality is Thibodeaux has that type of talent. In terms of the run game, I just don’t see Stanford pushing around the likes of Jordon Scott, Austin Faoliu, Popo Aumavae, and Brandon Dorlus for 4 quarters. That paired with Oregon’s capable tackling at linebacker and the potential for the Ducks to put up some points on offense, leads me to believe that Stanford will need to throw the ball in order to win. 

Starting at quarterback for Stanford is former 5-star prospect Davis Mills. Mills has had some difficult times in Palo Alto, sitting behind KJ Costello for some time and dealing with injuries along the way. Still, the tools are there for Mills to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season. Unlike prior years, this Stanford passing attack figures to work more through the receiver position than their signature tight end spot. The Cardinal have a few capable playmakers in the passing game, who will be more than willing to take advantage of any drop-off seen from the departures of Holland, Graham, and Breeze in the Oregon secondary. Frankly, I don’t see that drop-off being too noticeable for the Ducks in 2020. Mykael Wright has the makings of a stud, I expect he will be getting early round 2022 draft hype by the end of this year. McKinley and Pickett are very capable, smart, and experienced players at the safety spots. The real newcomer is Jamal Hill, who is slotted to replace Jevon Holland at the critical nickel spot of Avalos’s defense. This is another spot we’ll find out a lot about Saturday, but in my mind, it says a lot that Jamal Hill has come in and claimed this nickel spot as a true sophomore. There were other options if the Ducks didn’t feel comfortable with Hill’s ability, but he has really separated himself, becoming a common fixture in Rob Moseley’s practice reports due to his impressive play. Ultimately, I think Stanford, in part by necessity, will try to target Oregon’s cornerbacks and that will be a major mistake. Deommodore Lenoir and Mykael Wright simply are not guys you want to throw at all game. If Mills tries to, I’ll bet that the Oregon secondary can find an interception, possibly two or three. Add to that, there’s potential for rain Saturday which could contribute to errant throws and dropped balls. Of course, these factors could inhibit the Ducks as well, but I think Oregon has the easier path to adapting their attack because I believe they are the more physical side. This matchup should be a bit closer, but I simply don’t see a year two Avalos defense coming out flat. I’ll be looking for Stanford to score in the teens. 

Final Prediction

I’ll take the Ducks to win 31-13. Both teams likely start off this game a little slow, but eventually Oregon finds its rhythm and gains some separation. The Ducks will mix it up in terms of their attack, maybe JJ3 puts his stamp on a drive, maybe Mycah goes off. Personally, I’d love to see Sean Dollars bust out a long run. Regardless, I feel confident that as the second half winds down, we’ll see CJ Verdell carrying the rock and moving the chains as this new O line starts to lean on an undermanned Stanford defense. On the other side, a capable Cardinal offense finds a way to get on the board a couple of times but isn’t able to sustain success against this vaunted Ducks defense. Oregon’s playmakers on defense will find a way to force a turnover or two, and this unit’s depth and talent will be enough to keep us fans from getting too uncomfortable. Go Ducks!

[cover image by Daniel Hartwig via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)]

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

PAC-12 North Preview: Ducks primed for another division title

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda


776d2311-5aa6-4507-9bbb-c6697991f18d-USP_NCAA_Football__Oregon_at_Southern_California.jpeg

For obvious reasons, this is going to be a unique season, highlighted by diminished home-field advantages and a 7 game, conference only schedule. The first 6 games will be comprised of teams playing their 5 divisional peers and one cross-divisional game. The last weekend is reserved for a zipper format between the divisions in which each North team will play their South division seed equivalent. This means there won’t be as many chances for teams to separate themselves in the conference standings and could end up yielding a hotly contested divisional race until the very end. As a friendly reminder, the divisional race a year ago wasn’t very contested. In 2019, the Ducks were the only Pac-12 North team to finish with a conference record above .500 and captured the division title by 4 games. Anyways, without further adieu, let’s get into it.  

Oregon – The Ducks come into this season as the conference’s primary contender to make the College Football Playoff. Oregon loses a handful of key pieces – Justin Herbert, Troy Dye, Jevon Holland, Thomas Graham, their top 6 offensive linemen including the Outland Trophy winner Penei Sewell, and the list could go on. From that angle, it makes a lot of sense to say Oregon will regress in 2020. But the fans in Eugene don’t feel that way at all. Oregon continues recruit at a level they’ve never before seen, and there’s a lot of confidence around the program that Mario Cristobal is steadily marching the Ducks back to national championship contention. One key factor, the addition of Joe Moorhead at OC could unlock a lot of offensive potential. None of that will matter if Oregon is doesn’t find a capable arm at quarterback. That battle is still going on between in-program product Tyler Shough and Boston College transfer Anthony Brown. Arguably the bigger concern is an entirely new offensive line, but if there’s one head coach that should be trusted to get the offensive line right, it’s Mario Cristobal. Ultimately, there just isn’t another team in the division that quite presents the necessary threat for me to pick against the culture of the defending conference champs.

Washington – UW has a lot of adjustments to make heading into this season. Not only is Chris Petersen out, but the Huskies also look to replace the NFL arm of Jacob Eason. That said, Washington has more 4 and 5 star talent than any other program in the conference, narrowly edging out Oregon and USC. Ultimately, this season will be defined by the Huskies ability or inability to figure out the quarterback position. There are a lot of possible arms in the room, each with a varying mix of experience and raw talent. If the Huskies can find their guy, there’s reason to think this team can compete for a conference title. However, if they have inconsistent QB play, paired with a first year head coach, this season could expose some of the same flaws that characterized the Huskies 8-5 campaign in 2019. Those concerns, paired with the loss of defensive leaders DL Levi Onwuzurike and LB Joe Tryon, both of which decided to opt out of this season in favor of NFL draft preparation, are the key factors that prevent me from picking UW to win the North.

 Cal – Many have tabbed Cal as the sleeper team in the Pac-12 North. I get it, there’s a lot to like about what Justin Wilcox is putting together in Berkeley. The question is, will all those positive developments in the culture of the Golden Bears translate into wins this season? Cal is still in the bottom half of the conference in terms of where the talent on their rooster was ranked out of high school. The Cal offense hasn’t been gamebreaking under Wilcox, and the defense figures to slip a bit with the loss of FBS leading tackler Evan Weaver. Honestly, I just don’t believe there is enough there to place this program higher than third. 

Stanford – The Cardinal are in a strange spot as a program. Stanford finished at the bottom of the division in 2019, something that would’ve seemed unthinkable at times during this programs past decade as perennial contenders in the Pac-12 and a common fixture in the top 10 teams in the country. Some of that magic is eroding at Stanford, as divisional powers like Oregon and Washington have reshaped their programs to match the physical test presented by Stanford. I’m just not convinced the same old Cardinal playbook still works as well as it once did. That said, despite a handful of headscratching departures in the offseason, David Shaw’s roster still has the talent and style of play to beat the teams they are supposed to. 

Oregon State – The unfortunate reality for Beavers fans, is that this program exists at a disadvantage in the conference in terms of location and resources. Expectations in Corvallis don’t figure to be national or conference championships any time soon. However, can this program get back to consistently playing in bowl games and finishing in the top half of the conference as it did for most of the first decade of the 2000’s? I believe Jonathan Smith provides reason for optimism. Smith looks to be a good offensive mind and he loves the Oregon State program. Things are trending the right direction and on any given Saturday I believe the Beavers can put up a fight, but I don’t think they’ve put it all together enough to hang in this divisional race tell the end. 

Washington State – Frankly, I’m not sure what to think of Wazzu under Nick Rolovich. This program has been defined, in so many ways, by the personality and scheme of their former head coach Mike Leach during his time in Pullman. Rolo had a very successful stint at Hawaii and has his own quarks that should make him a good fit. However, with all of the unpredictability of this season and the very limited offseason, I can’t bring myself to expect too much from these Cougs trying to work in an outside hire while already operating at a talent deficit.

 

GAMES TO WATCH

11/7 – Washington @ Cal

The Golden Bears have shown a proclivity to pull head scratching upsets on the Huskies in recent years. Will that trend repeat itself? We’ll find out week one in a matchup intended to separate the pretenders from the contenders in this divisional race.

11/14 Cal @ Arizona St

Tempe is always a dangerous place to travel regardless of how many fans are in attendance. Both these programs are trying to climb to Pac-12 prominence, and this early season cross-divisional test will be a great measurement of which up and comer is closest to challenging the traditional powers of the conference. Plus for Cal specifically, this relatively difficult draw from the south presents another barrier to their quest to win the north.

11/27 Oregon @ Oregon St

The Beavers kept it close last season against their in-state foes. If the Ducks are the premier team in this conference, than this will be a good test to see just how close Oregon State is to getting back to where they want to be. On the other side, Oregon needs to be able to put away teams like the Beavers with ease, if they really want to state their case for the playoff.

12/12 Washington @ Oregon

This rivalry game has been
incredibly close and incredibly good for each of the past 2 seasons. Washington has mustered some of their best efforts against the Ducks, but under Cristobal, Oregon has just barely had enough to get it done. Will Washington take back the north or is Oregon going to extend the gap between themselves and the competition. I truly believe there is no better game in the conference than this one. Adding to the significance, with a shortened conference schedule this game could very well send the winner to the conference championship.

  

COMPLETE PAC-12 PREDICTIONS

NORTH DIVISION

  1. Oregon

  2. Washington

  3. Cal

  4. Stanford

  5. Oregon State

  6. Washington State

 SOUTH DIVISION

  1. USC

  2. Arizona State

  3. Utah

  4. UCLA

  5. Colorado

  6. Arizona

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP

Oregon over USC

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Thoughts on Oregon’s 2020 Schedule and Evolving Conference Matchups

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda


Image by John Martinez Pavliga via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Image by John Martinez Pavliga via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Some Context

The Pac-12 released its plan for an altered 2020 fall football schedule on July 31st. As things stand now, week one is set to start on Saturday, September 26th. However, the Pac-12 has already laid out a backup plan in which the first two weeks of each team’s schedule can be compressed into their bye week and one week after the finish of their current schedule but before the potential Pac-12 title game.

As we already know, the conference abandoned any non-conference games previously scheduled to be played this season. That means no Hawaii, no North Dakota State, and (most notably) no Ohio State for our Ducks. Instead, it will be a 10-game, conference only schedule—meaning Oregon will play all but one Pac-12 foe, only missing out on a matchup with UCLA. It also means that there is a good chance the 2020 Pac-12 title game will be a rematch of two teams who have already met this year. 

Briefly, let’s address the elephant in the room: nobody knows whether this schedule will ultimately be played in this order or whether we’ll see football in the fall of 2020 at all. I’m of the opinion that nobody really can know for sure right now. Even if this thing gets off the ground and we do see games played, I wouldn’t rule out the schedule being altered or canceled if new information about player safety comes out.

And just to be clear, player safety should be, and needs to be, the number one priority in all of this. It’s our role as fans to support the players’ safety and their right to choose whether they want to play. With that said, I’m rooting hard that football can be played safely this fall. I love the Ducks and I love college football. Hopefully, this proposed schedule works out. For the rest of this article, I’ll be assuming that the schedule is played as currently planned. 

Setting the Expectation 

Look, Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12. We’re the defending conference champs. We’re the defending Rose Bowl champs. Every week we should be stepping on the field expecting to win. Honestly, we should be looking to win big. This Andy Avalos defense is capable of holding any team in the conference under 15 points, and even an off night shouldn’t result in anything a good offensive performance can’t make up for.

Speaking of the offense, I expect us to be improved this year despite the loss of Herbert. Moorhead should be a major improvement at offensive coordinator. Tyler Shough is a guy I fully believe in at quarterback, and everything coming out of the program seems to suggest he’s capable of taking over. Verdell is a quality Pac-12 back. At receiver, Oregon has its deepest unit in years—including a likely breakout guy in Devon Williams. On the offensive line, yes we’re going to have to work in some new faces—but we do have Mario Cristobal as coach and Penei Sewell, arguably the best player in all of college football. (For more of my full thoughts on our depth chart, go check out episode 3 of Quacked Out Podcast on Spotify here or Apple Podcasts here).

All this is to say, the expectation this year is to win a Pac-12 title and be in the thick of the conversation for the college football playoff (although we are unsure what format that will take). Yes, it’s college football, upsets happen and we should all expect the unexpected. But that being said, all the pieces are in place for a big year in Eugene. Now onto the schedule…

Game-by-Game Breakdown

9/26 Colorado

This is a great warm-up game for the Ducks. No offense to Colorado, but I don’t think we need to be too worried about this one. Get the new offense clicking and see if Avalos’s unit can pitch a shutout. It’s a good draw for our first game. Plus, Oregon will get to look ahead and dedicate some extra prep to a Washington State program that has given us fits over the past 6 years.

10/3 @ Washington State

The Ducks travel to Pullman for this week 2 matchup. Former head coach Mike Leach is out at Wazzu, traveling south to Starkville, Mississippi; and with him, he takes his patented air-raid offense. The Cougars’ new head man is Nick Rolovich, who landed the power-5 job after a successful stint at Hawaii.

Rolovich has his own unique personality and prides himself on a run and shoot offense he’s seen some success with at prior stops. From a football perspective, I don’t hate the hire by Washington State, but I also believe Leach had done an incredible job in crafting a unique system to match this lower end power-5 program, and ultimately I believe that Leach’s niche strategy is the probably the smartest way to put a competitive product on the field at an under-resourced program like Wazzu.

The Ducks can’t ignore this game, but I don’t think it presents quite the same threat as it has in recent years. Plus, there obviously remains a sizable gap in talent between these two programs. Cristobal’s guys should be fine if they come in sharp.

10/9 (Friday) Arizona State

You’d have to think the Ducks have this one circled after the heartbreaking loss we suffered in Tempe late last season. It’s a chance for revenge, and it’s a chance to make a statement.

I’ve always been one to point out there were reasons for our loss to the Sun Devils last year. Defensively, it was a bad game—but that unit wasn’t helped by our offense’s inability to sustain a drive. On offense, Oregon was hindered by the absence of Jacob Breeland, Mycah Pittman, and Jaylon Redd—three of Herbert’s favorite options to when attacking the seams of a defense. Additionally, Jake Hansen was out for the 2nd half, and Throckmorton’s slower snaps threw off the timing of the offense.

Herm Edwards, Jayden Daniels, and company certainly deserve a lot of credit for getting it done, but I’m not of the belief that last year’s result is indicative of a trend to come in this matchup. Injuries do happen in football and I do think we ultimately deserved to lose the matchup in Tempe last fall.

However, as Cristobal recruits more and more of his guys into this program, the Ducks are starting to build the depth necessary to overcome these setbacks. Personally, I expect this team to be dialed in this time around.

10/17 @ Oregon State

This will be a year to break tradition between the Ducks and their in-state rival Beavers. The game will no longer be marketed as “the Civil War” after a push from current and former players, including Oregon legend Dennis Dixon. Also, it won’t be played during the traditional final week of the season. But one yearly tradition I do hope to continue is the Ducks crushing the Beavers, as we have in 12 of the last 13 matchups.

I think the Beavs are finally trending the right direction in Corvallis and believe that Jonathan Smith is a capable man for the job. Oregon State has some impact players and things have been picking up for them in recruiting—with the notable addition of 4-star in-state running back Damir Collins out of Jefferson High School in Portland.

But the talent gap between these two in-state foes is still massive. I simply don’t see how the Beavers can overcome that this year. 

10/24 Bye Week

As things stand now, the Ducks are off in week 5—and frankly, we should expect to be undefeated at this point. I don’t love this bye week for Oregon. In a 10-game schedule, it’s a little earlier than ideal in my opinion. But Mario Cristobal will just have to make do with the cards he’s been dealt.

After the bye, Oregon heads into a 6 game stretch where I expect 4 of their 5 most challenging matchups of the season will lie (Arizona State being the one game not included). Oregon absolutely can make it through this gauntlet unscathed, but that will tak
e discipline and focus. It will be a good test of the culture Cristobal has been so dedicated to implementing during his time in Eugene.

10/31 Washington

A Halloween night brawl between the Huskies and the Ducks is what’s on the docket this season. Anyone on Twitter knows how much this rivalry has heated up in the past few years. What’s more, the rivalry is becoming a year-long event, with both programs heavily involved in the recruitments of high profile west coast players like Troy Franklin, Moliki Matavao, and JT Tuimoloau. Mario Cristobal and Jimmy Lake alike even seem to be feeding into the bad blood. I love it.

My take on the Huskies is that they’re on the verge of a decline. Chris Petersen is definitely a good college football coach, and the mix of coach Pete’s culture and the more high talent recruiting UW had under Sarkisian is the best way to win in Seattle. Now Pete is out and Jimmy Lake is in. Lake may have what it takes to get things done in this sport eventually—the jury’s still out on that—but for now, he’s still learning the ropes. Husky fans had hoped that Lake would provide a younger energy and spark necessary to make UW cool (particularly on the recruiting trail), but his first offseason has been filled with blunders and lowered expectations.

Washington is unequivocally losing this rivalry on the recruiting trail in the 2021 cycle, and really, it isn’t even very close. If the Huskies suffer their 3rd consecutive defeat to Cristobal, expect their fans to get anxious up in Seattle, given how much time they spend mulling over how they stack up with the Ducks. To make matters worse for UW, it looks like Lake made a poor hire at offensive coordinator in John Donovan, a guy who has struggled to find success as a college OC and draws consistently negative reviews from fans at his past stops, most notably Penn State.

With that said, as much as I hate to admit it, UW actually has a pretty talented roster going into this upcoming 2020 season. The Huskies sit at 13th in the 247 Blue Chip Ratio, a metric created by Bud Elliot to measure the portion of each team’s scholarship roster that is comprised of former 4 and 5-star recruits. No team has won a national title with blue chip players making up under 50% of their scholarship roster, and Washington sits just above that mark at 54%.

This won’t be a cakewalk for our Ducks, as the past two matchups have been decided by the thinnest of margins. That being said, I think it’s fair to expect an Oregon win this year over their rivals up north. In my estimation, we have an advantage in the quarterback room. We have an advantage at both coordinator spots. We have an advantage in strength and conditioning. We have an advantage in experience at head coach.

Overall, this Ducks roster is battle-tested and has proven a knack for pulling out close wins in big games under Cristobal in a way the Huskies have not. (OK I know the Auburn game… but besides that one… and 2018 Stanford. Ugh.) Anyways, these are all potentially deciding factors in what figures to be a close game between two talented foes. Give me the Ducks.

11/7 @ Cal

This one has all the makings of a trap game. It’s situated right between Washington and USC—probably the other two most talented rosters in the conference and two games that our players and coaches take very personally.

On the other side, Cal has a bye week before this game, so they’re sure to be focused and well prepared. Something is building in Berkeley under Justin Wilcox (shoutout to the former Duck). This would certainly be a signature win for the Golden Bears, a la the upset the Sun Devils pulled off in Tempe last year.

As reigning Rose Bowl champions and favorites in the 2020 conference race, Oregon is going to get the best shot from every team they face—everyone wants to take down the champ on the big stage. Again, this will be a test for the culture that Cristobal has continually beat the drum for during his time in Eugene.

At their best, Oregon should be able to win this game handily. The question, of course, is will we show up at our best? Have the Ducks embraced that heartbreaking defeat in Tempe and used it as motivation to stay sharp? Or are we prone to repeat our mistakes and suffer the same fate once again? That’s what I’m looking to see from this game.

11/14 USC

For the 3rd week in a row, the Ducks will face a top Pac-12 opponent—see what I mean about the second half of this schedule being a bit loaded? There are few things that get me more hyped up than Oregon vs USC—the only in-conference matchup that features two national brands.

I don’t question that our players will be geared up for this one, but the same could be said of the opposing Trojans after they suffered an embarrassing 32-point blowout in the coliseum last year. Every time Oregon beats USC it means a little extra—another year that the program most capable of creating a dynasty on the west coast lays dormant. Cristobal has been very calculated in squelching any moment at USC, consistently winning high-profile battles both on the field and off. We’ll see if he can do it again this year.

Who are the breakout candidates in this one? It’s got to be the front 7 for Oregon. Play from our secondary will be crucial against Graham Harrell’s air-raid attack lead by Kedon Slovis—but I trust those guys in the back end for the Ducks. The place where Oregon really has a chance to dominate this game is in the trenches on the defensive side. USC is weak on the o-line, and it’s the type of weakness that could cripple their entire attack if properly exploited. Luckily, the Ducks have just the guys to do it—Jordon Scott, Austin Faoliu, Mase Funa, Adrian Jackson, Isaac Slade-Matuatia, maybe even a bit from the freshman linebacking duo of Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell. Oh ya, and then, of course, there’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.

After an impressive freshman year, especially towards the latter end, Thibodeaux seems ready to pop as a sophomore. If it hasn’t happened yet, expect this game to be Kayvon Thibodeaux’s official entrance onto the national stage. NFL number one pick buzz, a run at the Bednarik Award, an invitation to the Heisman ceremony in 2021—it could all start with Thibodeaux tormenting his former hometown Trojans on a Saturday in mid-November. That’s what I expect to happen.

11/20 (Friday) @ Arizona

This will be a much-needed break for our Ducks. Yes, Arizona has some talent—a promising QB Grant Gunnell, a solid WR room, and some experience on defense. And, of course, strange things always seem to happen in the desert. I just don’t see much magic going on there under Sumlin. Unlike their in-state counterpart, Arizona doesn’t seem to be building towards much.

I’ll say this, I expect Sumlin to be gone before the Wildcats find themselves back in the heat of a Pac-12 South race deep in November. I simply don’t believe this program has the energy or the swagger to pull off a major upset against the Ducks. That makes this a nice road draw for Oregon, and should give us the chance to collect ourselves before the final push.

11/28 Stanford

Oregon and Stanford ha
ve had some memorable and meaningful showdowns over the past decade or so. Some have had me jumping and shouting in victory, others left me crushed and demoralized in defeat.

Unfortunately, I believe that that era of the rivalry is coming to an end. At one time this was one of the great yearly stylistic clashes in all of college football. For the Ducks, it was always a crucial test of whether a given year’s squad could handle the brutal physicality and clinical execution represented by the Cardinal. Under Cristobal, I am not sure that Stanford will still be the relevant measuring stick for whether Oregon can compete nationally in a given year. Cristobal prioritizes the trenches; it’s the first place he wants to make sure we aren’t outmatched. Not only has Stanford declined, but also, the sport has evolved.

In the early 2010s, the top tier of college football (outside of Oregon) looked a lot more like those old Stanford teams—the Cardinal were an appropriate simulation of what we might see against an Auburn or Alabama on the national stage. In today’s sport, that regional measuring stick probably looks more like a pass-heavy offense with dynamic playmakers at receiver, something like a better version of Leach’s Wazzu or the USC air-raid. Either way, I’m sad to say I don’t expect this year’s Stanford game to be one of the most compelling chapters of “birds vs nerds.”

In a weird way, I’m actually sad to say I’m not too worried about the Stanford game this year. Just look what happened last season, Oregon had one of our most sluggish performances (at least offensively) and still walked out of Palo Alto without much threat of taking a loss.

To summarize, I just think Mario Cristobal has built this program in a way that nullifies many of Stanford’s strengths that at one time gave us fits.  

12/5 @ Utah

The Utes campaigned hard for this one—it appears they are seeking revenge after suffering a crushing defeat to the Ducks in last year’s Pac-12 title game, which left Utah on the outside of the playoff. Frankly, the Utes lose a lot from their special season in 2019; most notably Tyler Huntley, Zack Moss, Jaylon Johnson, and Bradlee Anae. Those are the type of players that gave real teeth to Kyle Whittingham’s program.

To make matters worse for the Utes, Cristobal and the Ducks don’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. If the Pac-12 landscape is an arms race, then Utah is falling well behind in terms of talent acquisition. More and more, they are becoming the team that shows up with a knife to the proverbial gunfight, as their recruiting rankings lag behind the rest of the conference’s top tier. At some point, the talent gap simply becomes too large to overcome with scheme and culture. It might be enough to edge out a dysfunctional USC program in the Pac-12 South race, but besting the Ducks is another story. Again, it’s not like Oregon is a program lacking in culture or scheme, particularly after the addition of OC Joe Moorhead.

If there is a silver lining for the Utes, it’s that they have until the last week of the season to prepare themselves for this game. They have ample time to turn an abundance of question marks into answers and they’ve shown an impressive ability to reload, particularly on the defensive end, over the past few years. However, if Oregon plays its best game, we should win comfortably—as we did in the conference title game last season.

And speaking of the conference title game, this matchup brings an interesting dynamic because it could be a possible preview of the conference title game currently scheduled for just two weeks later. Oregon seems to be the favorite in the North, while Utah figures to be in a close race with USC and likely Arizona State for the South. It’s entirely possible that these two teams could face each other in consecutive matchups, something that has seldom been seen in college football. 

12/12 Bye Week

Another bye, this one is the same for every school in the Pac-12. If games have to be canceled or rescheduled, there’s a good chance they’ll move to this week. If that doesn’t happen, it will be nice to have an extra week to gear up for a potential conference championship game.

Also, this could be a key period for Cristobal and staff to sure up recruiting for the Ducks’ 2021 class before early signing period, which is currently slotted for December 16th through the 18th (although that may be subject to change given this year’s unique calendar). By the way, that 2021 class is shaping up to be the best in program history by a pretty wide margin. 

12/18 or 12/19 Pac-12 Championship Game

There’s not too much to say here given the Ducks don’t know who their opponent will be or even which date this game will be played on. Some would say the Ducks don’t know if they’ll be in this game. They also don’t know, for sure, where it will be played. The conference announced this year’s game will be held at the home stadium of the team with the best record.

I do know this though: if the Ducks play up to their full potential, we should be playing our final conference game in Autzen in mid-December, and hopefully, we’ll be looking to make a statement and bolster our case for a playoff berth (in whatever form that takes).

Final Thoughts

11-0 is out there. 10-1 is out there as well. Either of those marks would clearly be a very successful season. Now, is this the year? I don’t know. It could be. This team has the talent to pull something big off and in a sport and a year of uncertainty, I’m not willing to count them out entirely. But, I also think it’s important for us all to put things in the context of the trajectory of this program.

I’m of the opinion that the best is yet to come in the Cristobal era. A couple more recruiting classes like this one in 2021 and Oregon will have the roster to be within a score of any team in the country on any given Saturday. So what do we need out of this year? Really, I would just say we need to maintain the standard we established in 2019-20.

First, win the Pac-12, or at least win the North. If we do that, we should secure a bid to a New Years 6 bowl (assuming those happen this year). A competitive performance in a NY6 bowl gives Oregon all the tools we need to continue the upward trajectory of this program. I certainly believe that’s a goal that this team can accomplish. 

Shameless plug: Go listen to Quacked Out Podcast on Spotify here, Apple Podcasts here, or search Quacked Out Podcast on your preferred platform for a lot more Ducks talk and follow on Twitter @QuackedOutPod to keep up to date. Go Ducks! Peace.

3 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Uncategorized

Quacked Out Pod, Ep. 3 — Full Roster Breakdown

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda


qoplogo.jpeg

On the third episode of the Quacked Out Pod, we give our complete thoughts on where the Ducks stand at every position going into next season. We talk about the offense. We talk about the defense. Yes, we even talk about special teams. For any player that is likely to see meaningful playing time, you can expect to hear our thoughts on them in this pod.

Listen on Spotify here or Apple Podcasts here. Or you can search Quacked Out Podcast on your preferred platform. Enjoy and Go Ducks!

Want to have your question featured on a future episode? @ us on Twitter here, here, or here; or leave a comment below!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts
Older Posts