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Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis
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Seattle flush with options ahead of NHL free agency

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The Kraken have been much quieter on the roster construction side of things than most people expected after the expansion draft. While the Vegas Golden Knights traded away four of their expansion selections within 10 days of their draft (acquiring two 2nd round picks, a 3rd, and a 5th) Seattle has held fast to their picks aside from getting a 4th round pick for forward Tyler Pitlick.

As of now, Ron Francis doesn’t appear to have any more trades in his back pocket. That does not mean, however, that the roster as it is currently constructed will be the same as the roster on October 12th when Seattle heads to Vegas for their first regular season game. Because while there may not be many trades involving Seattle, they’re expected to be a major player when free agency opens up on Wednesday the 28th. Ron Francis stated as much following the expansion draft.

“That would be our plan, yeah. Certainly there’s guys that were protected that might be available. We’ll certainly look at who’s out there on the 28th and hopefully we can entice more guys to come and join us.”

And of course, they’re also required to by rule.

Every team in the NHL has to be below the $81.5 million salary cap by the start of the regular season. But it’s the other side of that coin that has a more outsized effect on the Kraken this year—the $60.2 million salary cap floor.

Per Cap Friendly, Seattle is projected to have a total NHL salary of about $50.8 million this upcoming season as the roster stands now. They have several restricted free agents still to sign, but of those only Vince Dunn seems like a sure thing to crack the opening night roster. His contract should come in somewhere in the $3M-$3.5M* range, leaving Seattle still a full $6 million shy of the minimum required salary by the NHL.

*A quick note about NHL contract values: they are typically reported as the Average Annual Value, or AAV, because the salary cap hit for the team is always the total salary divided by the number of years on the contract. All numbers in this piece as far as contract values go will be referring to AAV.

Once teams are permitted to negotiate contracts with free agents on Wednesday, Seattle will need to find enough players to fill out their NHL roster that will give them at least $6 million more in salary. They could theoretically trade some of their cheaper talent now for players on larger contracts, but that really doesn’t seem to fit with what the team has done so far. Which leaves two options as to how Seattle will spend to the cap floor in free agency.

Note: Contract projections used in this piece come from a model developed by Josh and Luke Younggren available at evolving-hockey.com to paid subscribers

Option A: Go big or go home

They could ignore grandma’s advice and go spend it all in one place like their inner child has always wanted to. If that’s the case, Gabriel Landeskog seems to be the top target. 

The captain of the Colorado Avalanche seemed destined to remain with his team all season long, but another early playoff exit along with stalled contract talks has shifted the conversation entirely. Landeskog, at 28 years old, is looking for what will likely be his last big payday in the NHL. His linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen make $6.3M and $9.25M, respectively, and it’s safe to say Landeskog would like something in that range. The contract projection model at Evolving Hockey predicts he could command a 7-year, $8.8M deal this offseason.

With a massive new deal for superstar defender Cale Makar in the books and another big one for Philipp Grubauer still being worked out, there’s a real possibility that Colorado simply won’t have the space to match what a team could offer Landeskog in free agency. Enter the Kraken.

Seattle reportedly talked to Landeskog during the 72-hour negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, implying they were at least considering using their selection on the stud winger. Ultimately they went with Joonas Donskoi, but that doesn’t mean they can’t circle back on Landeskog this week after he has a chance to see what his skills will command to other interested parties on the open market.

Landeskog would be a huge get for Seattle, immediately giving them the star power on offense that they lack, and providing instant leadership in the locker room for the expected 7-year life of his contract. With only two other contracts over $5M AAV after this year, splurging on this big name would in no way hamstring the franchise in the immediate future. And of course, it would be really damn fun to watch in year one.

The other potentially high-priced addition could be Phillip Danault. Coming fresh off of a Stanley Cup Final appearance, Danault is known primarily as an elite defensive center. Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com has a great visual of how the Canadiens allowed far fewer high-danger shots against their goaltender with Danault on the ice, where the blue areas in the bottom-left quadrant represent a lower-than-average amount of shots allowed by the Habs.

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

He would fit in as a top-six center in Seattle along with Yanni Gourde and provide proven talent at a thin position. Like Landeskog, Danault projects to get a long-term deal this offseason, likely the maximum allowed 7 years. Evolving Hockey predicts a $6.2M cap charge for the 28-year old, which could be more than a team would like to pay for a player who has only surpassed 50 points once in his career. His defensive ability, however, is clearly enough for Seattle to take a long look at him. The Kraken did have discussions with Danault’s camp during their expansion negotiating window, but whether or not those talks will pick back up this week remains unknown.

Option B: Spread the wealth

For the price of one Gabriel Landeskog, Seattle could instead invest in two or three mid-level free agents in an attempt to fill out more than just their top line. It wouldn’t be as splashy of a move, but this option would fit in better with the strategy they have laid out thus far.

Seattle only has two players under contract for more than one season with contracts over $5M AAV—forwards Jordan Eberle and Yanni Goure. Mark Giordano carries the highest cap charge at $6.75M, but with only one year remaining it hardly hinders the team from making any move in the near future. Ron Francis has said multiple times he likes where the team is in regards to their cap situation, so it can be inferred that they’d like to keep it that way in an era where the salary cap may stay stagnant for as many as five years.

“We think [cap space] is the valuable thing to have right now, especially in the COVID environment with the flat cap,” said Francis in his post-expansion draft availability. “We went through our choices and there were some good players that were out there, but maybe we weren’t comfortable with the cap hit on some of them. We tried to draft the best team possible that we could and still keep our cap space available to hopefully do some things as we move forward.”

If Seattle wants to keep that cap flexibility to a maximum, it might behoove them to look towards some of these more affordable free agents to fill out their lineup.

Jaden Schwartz | LW | Age 28
EH projection: 3 years, $4.75M AAV

Seattle reportedly showed interest in Schwartz during the negotiating window ahead of the expansion draft, but ultimately selected the promising young defender Vince Dunn from the St. Louis Blues instead. That doesn’t mean, however, that the talks didn’t go well between Schwartz and the Kraken. In fact, Seattle now seems to be the frontrunner as his eventual landing spot.

Talks are expected to pick back up on Wednesday between the two sides, but no details of a deal have yet been reported. Schwartz would immediately slot in opposite Jordan Eberle on the team’s top line and provide proven NHL talent on the offensive side, an area with which Seattle projects to need the most help.

Zach Aston-Reese | LW | Age 26
EH Projection: 3 years, $2M AAV

Aston-Reese was a popular choice for the Kraken’s selection in the expansion draft among the analytics community. He plays very strong defense and has the ability to generate shots both off the rush and while set up in the offensive zone, as seen in the manually tracked data from Corey Sznajder.

Zach Aston-Reese is above average at shot generation both on the rush and set up in the offensive zone, per Corey Sznajder

From Corey Sznajder’s manually tracked data

Aston-Reese has not been given a qualifying offer from the Pittsburgh Penguins as of this writing, and appears to be set to become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday. He could fit in as a 3rd line winger with potential to get even better with an opportunity to play more minutes for the expansion club.

UPDATE: Zach Aston-Reese was qualified by the Pittsburgh Penguins after this post was published. He will no longer become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday.

Jujhar Khaira | C | Age 26
EH Projection: 1 year, $990K

Khaira was not extended a qualifying offer by the Edmonton Oilers, which means he becomes an unrestricted free agent this week. He’s likely a career bottom-six forward, but he can play center and spent a lot of time killing penalties last year, which is always important. If Seattle takes a run at Khaira to perhaps center their third line, that could also allow them to shelter their shiny new second-overall pick Matty Beniers on the fourth line as he develops in his first year.

The cap hits of these three players combined could very well come in around the same hit as Landeskog alone. This would net Seattle a winger who despite not being as good as Landeskog would still project as their top-line left wing as well as two more capable NHL players that could fill out their bottom-six.

Whichever method Ron Francis and the Kraken front office choose to utilize, rest assured that despite a quieter start to their organization than anticipated, they will be making plenty of moves once free agency opens up on July 28th.

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Dan’s Seattle Kraken Expansion Mock Draft

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The protected lists for all 30 (curse you Vegas) NHL clubs have been released to the league and to the public, and there are more than a few surprises. It appears the Kraken could build a legitimately good team from the jump, so long as they’re willing to take on a few medium-to-large contracts. Of course, some of the surprising names left available could be protected in a side deal that we won’t hear about until Wednesday, but for now, we’re working with what we’ve got.

Here’s one possible expansion roster for the Seattle Kraken based on the actual protected lists released by the 30 NHL teams. All cap info and graphics come from Cap Friendly’s own Seattle expansion tool, be sure to check it out over these next couple days until the team is official.

Forwards: 17
Defense: 10
Goalies: 3
2021-2022 contracts: 25
Cap hit: $77.1M

Some notes:

-This cap charge is much higher than what the Kraken want to go into the year with, but the idea here is to immediately trade away a few of these players for more draft picks and prospects. Vegas loaded up on defenders in the expansion draft and flipped a few of them within a day. Mark Giordano is a prime candidate for this, along with potentially a Jordan Eberle or Max Domi.

-Vladimir Tarasenko is too good to pass up. It’s difficult to find a 40-goal scorer anywhere, let alone in an expansion draft. His $7.5M cap hit is high but worth it, assuming he’s healthy and ready to go this season

-Relatedly, James van Riemsdyk gets left off this list because he’s got nearly the same cap charge as Tarasenko with about half the goal-scoring upside. We’ll take a chance with Hakstol’s former player Shayne Gostisbehere instead.

-There are so many good options available from Tampa. Ondrej Palat, Alex Kilorn, and Tyler Johnson would all be fine choices, but Gourde plays center more regularly and the center position is hard to come by. He’s also just really damn good.

-Jared McCann was just picked up by Toronto in a trade with Pittsburgh. He’s adored by the analytics crowd and has some of the best rate stats in the league. There could be a side deal here, assuming the Leafs don’t want to lose a guy they just swapped a prospect and a pick for.

-Haydn Fleury was a former Ron Francis pick in Carolina. A reunion of sorts seems very possible

-Chris Driedger has already been reported as a likely selection from the Panthers. Vita Vanecek came out of nowhere last year and proved to be an NHL-caliber goaltender, so they’ll compete for the starting job in year one.

-Washington also left defenseman Justin Schultz available. He could easily be a target, in which case we’ll need to find another goaltender somewhere, perhaps Braden Holtby from Vancouver

As of now, it appears the Kraken will have a chance to ice a really competitive team from the jump this October. Or at the very least, they should clean up in those expansion side deals that Vegas has been praised for these past four years. We’ll find out for sure on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Last-minute trades impact the Kraken’s expansion decisions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

There was a flurry of trades in the NHL on Saturday morning ahead of the roster freeze and the deadline for team protected lists heading into the week of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. Many of them had major implications for what was expected regarding the players available to Seattle on Wednesday. Here’s a rundown of what trades happened and how they will affect the Kraken’s initial roster.

THE TRADE

Dallas trades center Jason Dickinson to Vancouver for a 2021 3rd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

With the news that goaltender Ben Bishop would waive his no-move clause last week in order to protect fellow goaltender Anton Khudobin, Dickinson became the frontrunner to be picked by Seattle. He’ll be on the protection list in Vancouver, bumping someone like Matthew Highmore off, while the options from the Stars look much more slim.

THE TRADE

Arizona trades goaltender Adin Hill to San Jose for goaltender Josef Korenar and a 2022 2nd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

Hill looked like the default pick for Seattle on a very meh Coyotes team. Now it looks more likely Seattle takes a forward in Johan Larsson or Christian Fischer, or perhaps makes a side deal to take on the exorbitant contract of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who carries an $8.25M cap hit through 2027.

THE TRADE

Pittsburgh trades left winger Jared McCann to Toronto for center Filip Hållander and a 2023 7th round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

McCann looked like the clear choice from Pittsburgh last week after reports surfaced that the Penguins would protect Brandon Tanev over McCann, but that’s out the window now. Seattle will likely look at forward Zach Aston-Reese or a defenseman like Marcus Pettersson or Mike Matheson from Pittsburgh now.

This one also has significant implications in Toronto, who were speculated to protect four forwards and four defensemen, but will now have to use the 7F/3D approach to protect McCann. That should leave someone like Justin Holl available on the blue line for the Kraken.

THE TRADE

Nashville acquires Cody Glass and Philippe Myers from Philadelphia & Vegas

Philadelphia acquires Ryan Ellis from Nashville

Vegas acquires Nolan Patrick from Philadelphia

THE IMPLICATIONS

With Nolan Patrick gone, the Flyers are now projected to protect winger James van Riemsdyk. That leaves Jacob Voracek and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel as the potential forward picks from the Flyers and Shayne Gostisbehere as an available defender.

Nashville now has Cody Glass, who is exempt from the expansion draft, and doesn’t have to protect Ryan Ellis. They could potentially now protect popular mock draft choice Calle Järnkrok.

Vegas gets Nolan Patrick, who by virtue of playing for Vegas, is now exempt from the expansion draft.

THE TRADE

The New York Islanders trade two 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick to Arizona in exchange for Arizona taking on Andrew Ladd and his near $5M cap hit.

THE IMPLICATIONS

The Islanders are in a tough cap situation right now, with $12.9M in projected cap space and both Anthony Beuvillier and Adam Pelech still to be signed. This relieves some of their cap issues, which could lessen the impact of a side deal with Seattle to take on a big contract in exchange for draft picks or prospects.

Perhaps the most impactful piece of news from an eventful day was the trade that did not happen. The St. Louis Blues were either unable or unwilling to move Vladimir Tarasenko before the noon roster freeze. Now it appears that the Blues are willing to let him head to Seattle for potentially no return.

Tarasenko has only appeared in 34 games in the past two years, but scored at least 30 goals in the five prior seasons. He would immediately be the Kraken’s top goal scorer. His $7.5M cap hit is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s worth the money if he is healthy.

Rosters are now frozen, which means no more trades or signings can happen until after the expansion draft. Protected lists will be distributed on Sunday morning at 7am and from that point on it will be nothing but real Kraken news until the final expansion roster is released on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Kraken begin to fill out coaching staff

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The Kraken announced their first two assistant coaching hires on Tuesday morning. Joining head coach Dave Hakstol will be his former colleague in Toronto Paul McFarland and former Providence Bruins head coach Jay Leach.

PAUL MCFARLAND

McFarland will be in charge of the forwards and the power play unit, a post similar to what he had in Toronto. In his one year as the Leafs’ assistant coach, Toronto finished with the sixth-best power play percentage in the NHL (23.1%). The underlying analytics around his power play were less kind to him, as the team ranked 22nd in shot attempts per 60 minutes with a man-advantage and 17th in expected goals per 60 minutes, according to evolving-hockey.com. The team generated plenty of shots from the circles through Auston Matthews, but did not get much from the low slot right in front of the net.

shot chart of the Maple Leafs' power play illustrating where the chances came from under coach Paul McFarland

McFarland was set to head back to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs last year before the season was cancelled due to concerns surrounding COVID-19.

JAY LEACH

Leach was most recently the head coach of the Boston Bruins’ AHL affiliate, the Providence Bruins. He compiled a career record of 136-77-26 over his four years there, culminating in the second-best record in the league in the 2019-2020 regular season. They finished the year on a streak of 13 games without a loss in regulation and were likely the Calder Cup favorites before the playoffs were shut down due to COVID-19. Providence finished that year with the second-fewest goals allowed in the AHL at 2.48.

Leach, himself a former defenseman, will be in charge of the defense in Seattle. He spent over 100 games in the AHL coaching both the Bruins’ Jérémy Lauzon and Connor Clifton, two players frequently mocked to the Kraken in the upcoming expansion draft.

Bruins fans that are plugged into their minor league system have nothing but great things to say about Leach, and all signs point to him becoming a head coach at the NHL level sooner rather than later. Of Leach, Scott Roche of Fansided.com had this to say:

It is not surprising that Leach is getting consideration for a head coaching job in the NHL as his Providence teams always played hard for him and they were well prepared, as evidence by their records and winning division championships. If Leach leaves, that will leave a void next season behind the Providence bench that will have to be filled and will be tough to follow.

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Three trade candidates for the Kraken ahead of the expansion draft

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The trade deadline has passed and the 2021 NHL season is winding down, which means rosters are all but set for the Seattle expansion draft on July 21. With projected protection lists rolling in at a steady pace now, hockey fans and analysts are getting a better idea of who might be available for the Kraken when the day arrives. A quick refresher on how the expansion draft works:

  • Seattle will select one player from each team, excluding Vegas, for a total of 30 players
  • Each team will have the option to protect either:
    • Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (7F/3D), or
    • Eight skaters of any position and one goalie
  • First and second year players cannot be selected and do not count against protection limits
  • Players with no-movement clauses must be protected unless the player chooses to waive the clause

In 2017, Vegas was able to leverage the expansion draft to pull extra players and draft capital from several teams that felt like they needed to protect more than they were allowed. Many are speculating that Seattle will not be able to snag the haul that Vegas was able to, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any trades at all on expansion day. Here are three of the most likely candidates that could make a side deal with the Kraken in order to keep their NHL rosters more intact.

MINNESOTA WILD

The Wild have a no-move clause problem. Any player with a full no-move clause in their contract is required to be on a team’s protected list. There are 52 players with no-movement clauses, five of which are on the Minnesota Wild, and three of which are defensemen. If the Wild roll with the 7F/3D protected list, their choice has already been made in regards to which defensemen will be exposed and which will be protected, and Matt Dumba becomes the odd-man out.

Dumba played the second-most minutes per game at even strength last year among Wild defensemen. Per evolving-hockey.com, Dumba ranked 35th out of 123 defensemen with at least 700 minutes played in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). His 53.1% xGF% mark just means that while he was on the ice, the Wild controlled 53.1% of the scoring opportunities in a given game. He could legitimately be a top-pair defenseman in the NHL.

 

Meanwhile, should the Wild choose to protect 4 defensemen, they’ll be forced to leave someone like Jordan Greenway available to Seattle. Greenway is a former 2nd-round pick who has slowly earned more ice time with each passing year. He had a career-high 32 points this season in 56 games, improving his points per game for the second consecutive season.

Who will Minnesota allow to leave for nothing, a defensemen that could play on their top pairing or a forward with top-6 potential? Neither has to sound particularly appealing for a Wild team that made a surprise run into the playoffs this season, competing with the known-contenders that are the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche.

Minnesota currently has two first round picks this year after acquiring Pittsburgh’s pick for Jason Zucker last year, which would lessen the blow of an expansion day trade. But it’s also worth noting that they’re one of the teams considered to have been swindled by Vegas the last time around, when they gave up Alex Tuch, a core Vegas starting forward, in order to keep the Golden Knights away from…Matt Dumba. This will be a real test of whether or not current general manager Bill Guerin learned from his predecessor Chuck Fletcher in regards to making a side deal during the expansion draft.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

Kraken general manager and former Carolina Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis has an opportunity to grab a quality NHL player from his former team this year. The Hurricanes face a similar problem as the Wild, in that they have too many good defensemen to protect. But Carolina has the luxury of fewer no-movement clauses and thus more flexibility when it comes to their protection list.

As of now, top-defenseman Dougie Hamilton is still set to hit unrestricted free agency, where Evolving Hockey projects him to command nearly $9M per year.

Losing Hamilton in free agency still leaves the Hurricanes with a solid top-4 defensive core of Jacob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, and Jake Bean. One of those names will have to be available to Seattle (assuming the 7F/3D protected list) and most projections see rookie Jake Bean as the odd man out.

Bean was the 12th overall pick by none other than Ron Francis in 2016. This past year was his first full season on the NHL squad. His numbers are somewhat average by most public models, but it’s tough to expect much more than that in a player’s first year in the NHL.

blue = good; red = bad

There’s a good chance the Hurricanes lose Dougie Hamilton this offseason, so losing Bean as well would mean the Hurricanes are out two key pieces of their defense this offseason with no return.

They could opt to protect eight skaters (4F/4D), but that would leave Vincent Trochek exposed after a season in which his points per 60 minutes saw nearly a 50% increase from his career average, going from 2.1 to 3.0. Carolina general manager Don Waddell should at least give his former colleague a call to see what they can work out. After all, Ron Francis himself made a deal with Vegas in 2017 that worked out pretty good for Carolina during their expansion draft. He traded a 5th round pick in exchange for Vegas taking pending unrestricted free agent Connor Brickley, who split time between the AHL and NHL over the next two years and most recently played in the Austrian Hockey League.

COLORADO AVALANCHE

The Avalanche, despite their second-round playoff exit, were one of the best teams in the NHL this year. Their roster is loaded with talent on both offense and defense, which means the Kraken are going to get a good player here.

An expansion day trade here wouldn’t necessarily be about Colorado trying to keep a great roster intact, however. This one comes down to money.

Right now, Colorado has about $25M in cap space for next season, which leaves them in better shape than most teams. The problem is that they still have to re-sign their captain Gabriel Landeskog, superstar 22-year old defenseman Cale Makar, and Vezina Trophy finalist Philipp Grubauer. Landeskog and Makar project to eat up as much as $19M alone per Evolving Hockey, and Grubauer might be the best free agent goalie on the market this year.

 

The key to navigating this cap crunch for Colorado comes from defenseman Erik Johnson.

Johnson was a staple on the Avalanche blue line before Makar, Samuel Girard, and Devon Toews joined the team. But at 32 years old, with nagging injuries that kept him out of all but four games in 2021, it seems as though he’s lost his spot in the starting lineup. Reports are already surfacing that he will waive his no-movement clause, paving the way for him to be available to the Kraken in the expansion draft. But Seattle might need some motivation to take on a 32-year old, oft-injured defenseman with a $6M cap hit for the next two seasons. Colorado has already traded away their 2nd-round picks in 2021 and 2022, but still has their 1st-rounders to offer Seattle if they want to ensure they can make some extra room to keep their star players.

Plenty of teams may still feel that it’s better to decline any calls from Ron Francis and just take the loss of a single player in the expansion draft. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t still a few that will feel the need to make some side deals in order to keep a contending roster together for one more run at a Stanley Cup. Let’s hope they can find some common ground and get the Kraken off on the right foot this October.

Statistics from Evolving Hockey & Hockey Reference
Salary information from Cap Friendly

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Dave Hakstol’s coaching history by the numbers

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

Dave Hakstol was announced as the Seattle Kraken’s first head coach in franchise history on Thursday morning. Hakstol was most recently an assistant coach in Toronto, but he also spent 3+ years as the head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers from 2015 to 2018. While that’s a relatively short time frame as a head coach in the NHL, it does still present us with some data about what style of play we can expect from the Kraken and perhaps even an inkling of how successful we can expect the team to be in its first years of existence.

Note: all stats in here, unless otherwise stated, are during 5-on-5 play

OFFENSE

In Hakstol’s three full seasons as head coach in Philadelphia, the Flyers were almost perfectly average in generating shot attempts per 60 minutes, ranking 15th out of 31 teams per Evolving Hockey. However, those shots did not translate to an average offense. Philadelphia ranked 26th in goals per 60 minutes and 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes, meaning they were not taking very dangerous shots and they were not converting them to goals at a very high rate. The offense was largely defined by shots from the blue line.

That’s not necessarily a bad choice for an offensive gameplan. Micah McCurdy points out in a follow-up tweet to the one above that the 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning generate offense in a similar manner, to greater success.

Seattle should expect to see plenty of shots from the blue line with traffic in front of the net, looking for deflections and rebounds. According to McCurdy’s hockeyviz.com, the Flyers were quite successful at generating goals on deflected shots. Over Hakstol’s three seasons there, the team scored 16.5 more goals than expected on deflections (108 goals vs 91.5xG), so the offense does show some signs of success.

One more small section of his team’s offense that we can evaluate is what happens when the team is trailing late in a game. One of the most common data-driven findings in hockey gameplay is that coaches have long been too hesitant to pull their goalie near the end of a game when trailing. Goal differential sits at 4th on the list of tie-breaking procedures for a playoff spot and rarely comes up, so the difference in losing by one and losing by two is negligible.

While many coaches are starting to pull their netminders earlier in games, especially when down multiple goals, Hakstol never seemed to join them in his time as head coach.

 

Only the LA Kings waited longer to pull their goalie over Hakstol’s time as head coach of the Flyers. Whether he is willing to change that particularly strategy as he joins one of the most analytically inclined teams in the NHL remains to be seen, but he does at least appear to be open to these ideas.

“There’s two pieces to it. Analytics is a phenomenal tool for us as coaches to evaluate, to discover and to find different avenues to improve our team. The second piece of that is this is still a very human game. On the ice it’s played with emotion and passion, there’s all kinds of pace to it. I think it’s a very important tool and one that will be a part of how we grow and evaluate our hockey team. And again, I’m going to end with just never forget this is a game that’s played on emotion and it’s a human game.”

-Dave Hakstol on analytics in hockey

DEFENSE

On defense, the Flyers under Hakstol were consistently above-average. They ranked 9th in goals against per 60 minutes and 13th in expected goals against per 60 minutes over his three-year tenure, ranking as high as 7th in xG/60 by his final full season.

In the plot above, red areas are where the team allowed more shots than average, and blue represent areas where they allowed fewer shots than average. The Flyers all but eliminated shots from the slot area between the circles for their opponents in 2017-18.

Hakstol didn’t get much in the way of a sure-thing starting goaltender until his final year, when Brian Elliott joined the team. There’s a chance the Kraken get a goalie on par with Elliott or better in the expansion draft, which means this team might be very hard to score against in their first few seasons.

OVERALL

Hakstol’s Flyers played a defensively-sound, low-event style of hockey. Perhaps the Pete Carroll comparisons aren’t all that crazy.

One commonality that seems to be found in every mock expansion draft is that there will be plenty of good defensemen available to Seattle. With that in mind, getting a solid defensive coach who likes to drive his offense through his blue line makes a lot of sense. Goal scoring was always going to be hard to come by for this expansion franchise, but that doesn’t mean winning is out the window.

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Kraken announce John Forslund as TV play-by-play announcer; Games to be broadcast on ROOT SPORTS

by Grant Beery
written by Grant Beery
Broadcast graphic courtesy of ROOT SPORTS

Broadcast graphic courtesy of ROOT SPORTS

UPDATE 1/26/21 1:14PM – Added info regarding streaming option from AT&T.

The Seattle Kraken took to Twitter today to announce their TV plans for the upcoming inaugural season with a “FaceTime” call featuring John Forslund, the new TV play-by-play announcer. Fans will be able to hear Forslund and see the Kraken on ROOT SPORTS, the longtime home of the Mariners.

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NHL Reverse Retro Jerseys, Ranked

by Grant Beery
written by Grant Beery
unnamed.jpg

The NHL and Adidas have come up with a fun new idea (read: cash grab) for jerseys that may remind you of the old Starter fashion line from the 90s. All 31 teams (Sorry Seattle, you gotta play some games first) will wear these multiple times during the upcoming season, including some rivalry games from the olden days. As a self-avowed jersey nerd, and also because there’s not much else to talk about during the offseason, here’s my required and completely subjective ranking of each new look. The link next to each team name indicates the jersey year that inspired the remixed design.

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Let’s realign the NHL divisions

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

With the addition of the Kraken in 2021, the NHL will finally have a nice and even 32 teams, with 8 in each division. Who doesn’t love a good bit of symmetry?

Seattle will enter the league in the Pacific Division because that’s the only place they belong, and the Arizona Coyotes will have to move over to the Central Division to get them aligned just right.


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That’s a fairly nice geographic alignment, keeping divisions mostly within one time zone. It’s a little wonky what with the dense population on the East coast, but overall it works.

Let’s blow it up.

Anyone can draw lines down a map to create divisions in a sports league, it happens in all of them. But why are we so restrictive on separating teams solely based on geography? That’s no fun. Let’s try something new. Let’s align them based on their nicknames.


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As it turns out, there are exactly eight teams named after animals (okay maybe the devils make nine but it’s close) so that knocks out one division pretty easily. And that’s where the Kraken will land.

The Animal division wouldn’t be a bad place to start off a franchise right now. It’s probably the third best division in the league, and they’d only have to catch the Panthers (with just a +3 goal differential last year) to grab a playoff spot. A wild card berth is probably out the window, as both wild card teams are likely coming from that strong Nature division. In fact, all eight of the Nature division’s teams made it to the NHL Bubble Playoffs this past season, the only division in this new league to do so.

I like that the Protector division keeps the New York rivalry intact, but it’s a bummer that the Rangers and Flyers get separated. The Canucks and the Knights are getting absolutely wrecked with this schedule though. Every divisional game outside of when they play each other is on Eastern time. Tough, but it happens.

The Storied division is a bit of a mishmash, I’ll be honest. It was hard to find a good balance in the Man-Made Conference. It’s also probably the worst division in this league, though that win percentage is dragged down heavily by Detroit. Half of this division didn’t get an invite to the bubble.

If we had a normal playoffs with this alignment, ranking teams by their win percentage, the bracket would look like this:


nhl bracket 4 division.png

This is fun, but that last miscellaneous division is really bugging me. Let’s get even more radical with it and split this into eight divisions of four teams each.


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Now this is an alignment that would help out the Kraken quite a bit. Seattle should be able to compete with the struggling Sharks and Ducks right away, with the added benefit of short travel for those road games. Pittsburgh is tough, but would be the second worst division winner in this setup. The Disaster and Nature divisions remain the strongest, without a bad team among them. That’s going to make it harder to grab a playoff spot for the Kraken without toppling the Penguins for the division crown. The Nature division might suffer a bit as it’s the division with teams separated by the most distance.

The Storied division makes more sense now. St. Louis named after its music, Montreal its country, New Jersey after its own personal monster myth, and the Kings…well, kings are in a lot of stories at least. This division still sucks anyway outside of the Blues, so that’s easily forgotten.

The High-Flying division works out well, featuring things that fly, so long as we take the Blackhawks to mean the Blackhawk helicopter. In fact, this is a perfect opportunity for Chicago to get rid of their racist logo and replace it with a sweet military helicopter. They get to keep the name and get a less offensive logo, and they now fit in this division. Wins all around.

The Patriot division is the most interesting one in the Man-Made conference, outside of whatever it is the Senators are doing. The Canucks and Islanders appear to be on the upswing while the Capitals are only getting older. This should make for a tight race in the coming years. The Rangers should challenge the Knights in the Protector division soon if their recent high draft picks of Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière play up to their potential.

In this alignment, we’d give the top four playoff seeds in each conference to the division winners, followed by four wild card teams from any division. The playoff bracket based on 2019 win percentage would look like this.


nhl bracket 8 division.png

Who you got in this one?

The NHL is not the biggest league in the US, and I firmly believe that getting a little weird with their division alignments could be the key to bringing in that next generation of hockey fans that don’t yet realize they like hockey. What do they have to lose?

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Seattle Kraken and Oak View Group Expand Team at Climate Pledge Arena

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Oak View Group and the Seattle Kraken welcome five new executives to their team at Climate Pledge Arena. David Curry has been named vice president of technology, Nick Vaerewyck vice president of programming, Randy Foster as director of event production, Damon Murray as director of engineering, and Christine Spiller as senior director of event services. All new hires will assume their new roles immediately.

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“As we enter the next phase of development in bringing Seattle’s world-class arena to life, each of these new hires’ strong backgrounds will be invaluable in helping make that vision a reality,” said Tim Leiweke, CEO of Oak View Group. “I am very pleased to officially welcome each of them to the team.”



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Christine Spiller

Senior Director of Event Services

Spiller adds to the already experienced group, having most recently served as the senior director of venue operations at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. In Denver, she led the overall guest relations & experience vision as well as directed logistics and event implementation for concerts, the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche, the NBA’s Denver Nuggets, and the Colorado Mammoth lacrosse team. As a member of Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (KSE), who also owns Arsenal FC in the English Premier League and the Colorado Rapids of Major League Soccer, Spiller executed hundreds of events between all of KSE’s venues.

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““Joining this team of talented and dedicated industry leaders is an absolute honor,” said Spiller. “I’m excited to play a part in Climate Pledge Arena’s evolution and help bring this project to life. Most importantly, I can’t wait for the day our guests and the city of Seattle can experience what we will have created for them.”



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David Curry

Vice President of Technology

Curry, a Seattle native, has logged over 25-years of technology experience, including 13 as the vice president of technology with the Seattle Mariners. Additionally, he led all team back office, audio/visual, and facility technologies for the Mariners at Safeco Field (T-Mobile Park), the Peoria Sports Complex in Arizona, and the Academy in the Dominican Republic.

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“I feel honored to join the Climate Pledge Arena team and be involved in the construction and operation of such an incredible sports and entertainment venue,” said Curry. “I grew up watching the Sonics and Pearl Jam under this iconic roof, and I am thrilled to be part of what I know will be an amazing and important entertainment destination. This, when combined with my involvement in the construction of Safeco Field, feels like I hit the hometown lottery twice.”



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Nick Vaerewyck

Vice President of Programming

Vaerewyck takes the role of vice president of programming and will be responsible for strategic content programming of all concerts, family shows, and special events. Additionally, he will facilitate the schedules for both the Kraken and Storm of the WNBA.

Prior to joining the team at Climate Pledge Arena, he most recently oversaw the $180M renovation and reopening of Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in New York with Brooklyn Sports & Entertainment and was recently honored as a 2020 VenuesNow Generation Next recipient.

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“It’s an incredible honor to join such a talented team at Climate Pledge Arena,” said Vaerewyck. “It has been inspiring to see the excitement the city has for the new building and the Seattle Kraken as the vision takes shape. Seattle has such a great history and tremendous support for its sports, music, and entertainment and I’m excited to play a role with everyone here.”



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Randy Foster

Director of Event Production

Foster most recently worked as the director of production for AEG Presents in Seattle where he oversaw 650 shows annually in the four-state region. He has three decades of experience as production manager, tour manager, and promoter rep including tour manager for Marvel Universe Live for Feld Entertainment. As the former director of events of Bridgestone Arena, home of the NHL Nashville Predators, from 2006-2012, he brings additional experience to an already stacked group.

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“I couldn’t be prouder to be part of the team that’s bringing NHL hockey back to Seattle and expanding and renovating what will be the crown jewel of arenas in North America, the Climate Pledge Arena,” said Foster. “The team assembled here in Seattle is the finest in the world in sports and entertainment, and I’m thrilled to be a part of it.”



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Damon Murray

Director of Engineering

As the newly appointed director of engineering, Murray comes to Climate Pledge Arena from the Atlanta Hawks Basketball Club and State Farm Arena where he served as chief engineer and managed HVAC, plumbing, painters, maintenance, locksmith, and electrical staff. Prior to his role in Atlanta, he oversaw all event operations, engineering, security, and production for the U.S. Cellular Center in Asheville, NC. Additionally, he held multiple roles at the Spectrum Center – home of the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets.

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“It’s an honor to join the outstanding team at Climate Pledge Arena,” said Murray. “I’m delighted to leverage my years of experience in the venue industry to help further shape what will be the first net zero carbon certified arena in the world.”

Located at Seattle Center, Climate Pledge Arena will be the first net-zero certified arena in the world. Home to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, WNBA’s Seattle Storm, Esports events, and the world’s biggest performers of live music and events, Climate Pledge Arena will open in 2021.

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