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NHL Free Agency

Seattle Kraken

NHL Free Agency Day 1: The Kraken gets released

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The NHL free agent market officially opened up on Wednesday, and boy were the Seattle Kraken active. There were plenty of questions after the expansion draft about how Seattle would utilize their nearly $30 million in cap space, and some of those questions have been definitively answered.

Before we get into the big names that were inked to new deals, let’s talk about the overall strategy. As an expansion team, it’s tough to expect the Kraken to lure free agents to Seattle on team-friendly deals. While teams like Tampa Bay can attract players to the team with the promise of another Stanley Cup, Seattle remains the great unknown in regards to when they will become a truly competitive playoff team. That means that in free agency, Seattle has to offer as much, or likely more, than most other NHL teams—which is what makes the extra cap space saved after the expansion draft so crucial.

So, who did the Kraken go out and spend (perhaps even overspend?) on in free agency? Let’s take a look.

Alex Wennberg

The first official signing was forward Alex Wennberg. Wennberg had a career-high 17 goals in 56 games last year in his only season with the Florida Panthers. He spent the previous six seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets. His final two years with the Blue Jackets were underwhelming, to say the least, but in Florida he seemed to find his game once again and proved that he still can be a top-six center. While he doesn’t provide much on the defensive side of the ice, Wennberg does add value where the Kraken lack it most: in the offensive zone.

Wennberg had the most primary shot assists per 60 minutes of play last year among forwards currently signed by the Kraken, according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. A shot assist is any pass that leads directly to a shot. That means he excels at setting his teammates up with scoring chances in the offensive zone.

A scatter plot highlighting Alex Wennberg's high rate of shot assists in 2020-2021

The options for top-six forwards were few and far between in the expansion draft for Seattle, and Wennberg fits in that hole perfectly. Now he just needs to be paired with someone who isn’t afraid to shoot the puck and Seattle will really be in business.

Jaden Schwartz

The worst-kept secret of Seattle’s free agency signings was left-winger Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz was rumored to be coming to Seattle as far back as the expansion draft, and now it’s finally done. He spent the last 9 years (plus a few games in his 19-year old season) with the St. Louis Blues and was a key part of their Stanley Cup run in 2019 where he scored 12 goals in 26 playoff games.

At his best, Schwartz can be a productive, top-line player. And not only does he add some offense to a team that really needs it, he’s also one of the better defensive wingers available too. Evolving Hockey rank Schwartz in the 94th percentile among forwards in their defensive Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric over the past three years, which is just a really fancy way of saying teams playing against Schwartz don’t get good scoring chances when he’s on the ice.

While the defense is nice, it’s his offense that will be most needed in Seattle in year one. There is an interesting comparison to be made here with another player that was frequently considered a lock to be an expansion selection by Seattle last week: James van Riemsdyk.

A table showing stats for Jaden Schwartz and James van Riemsdyk over the last 9 years

On a points per 60 minutes basis, Schwartz has been quite similar to van Riemsdyk over the last nine seasons, with the exception of those two recent years where he battled through some injuries. That 2018-19 year, remember, was also the Stanley Cup year where he netted 12 goals and 20 points in 26 games (2.64 P/60). Schwartz doesn’t have the 30+ goal season that van Riemsdyk has (JvR netted 36 in 2017-18), but he’s also three years younger and nearly $2 million cheaper. James van Riemsdyk was a draft-and-trade candidate, Schwartz is a foundational piece of the team for the next five years.

Philipp Grubauer

The biggest surprise of the day came when Seattle jumped into the conversation for the top goaltender available on the open market, Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer has been the starting goaltender for the Colorado Avalanche for the past three years and is coming off of his best season yet, posting a .922 save percentage (8th in the NHL) and allowing less than two goals per game (2nd in the NHL).

Part of that comes down to the fact that Colorado was, frankly, a damn good team. Among those with at least 1,000 minutes played last season, no goaltender faced fewer unblocked shot attempts per game (Fenwick Against/60, or FA/60) than Grubauer.

a bar chart displaying goalie shots against per game, with philipp grubauer facing by far the fewest in the nhl

Now this is by no means Grubauer’s fault, but it’s worth considering that he did face a lighter workload than everyone else last year. The good news is that the Kraken already look like a strong defensive team coached by Dave Hakstol, who has a history of coaching teams that don’t allow many high-quality shots. He very well may be stepping into a similar situation defensively—a situation in which we know he can excel.

Taking into account how dangerous the shots against Grubauer have been over the past three years is an even more encouraging in regards to his ability. He saved over 20 more goals than expected over that timeframe based on Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, a fantastic mark.

There’s little doubt Grubauer will be a great immediate addition to this team, though the possibility of paying him $6 million in his age 35 or 36 season could be cause for concern down the road. For now, however, Grubauer is the highlight of a busy day for Ron Francis and the Seattle Kraken.

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Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis
Seattle Kraken

Seattle flush with options ahead of NHL free agency

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The Kraken have been much quieter on the roster construction side of things than most people expected after the expansion draft. While the Vegas Golden Knights traded away four of their expansion selections within 10 days of their draft (acquiring two 2nd round picks, a 3rd, and a 5th) Seattle has held fast to their picks aside from getting a 4th round pick for forward Tyler Pitlick.

As of now, Ron Francis doesn’t appear to have any more trades in his back pocket. That does not mean, however, that the roster as it is currently constructed will be the same as the roster on October 12th when Seattle heads to Vegas for their first regular season game. Because while there may not be many trades involving Seattle, they’re expected to be a major player when free agency opens up on Wednesday the 28th. Ron Francis stated as much following the expansion draft.

“That would be our plan, yeah. Certainly there’s guys that were protected that might be available. We’ll certainly look at who’s out there on the 28th and hopefully we can entice more guys to come and join us.”

And of course, they’re also required to by rule.

Every team in the NHL has to be below the $81.5 million salary cap by the start of the regular season. But it’s the other side of that coin that has a more outsized effect on the Kraken this year—the $60.2 million salary cap floor.

Per Cap Friendly, Seattle is projected to have a total NHL salary of about $50.8 million this upcoming season as the roster stands now. They have several restricted free agents still to sign, but of those only Vince Dunn seems like a sure thing to crack the opening night roster. His contract should come in somewhere in the $3M-$3.5M* range, leaving Seattle still a full $6 million shy of the minimum required salary by the NHL.

*A quick note about NHL contract values: they are typically reported as the Average Annual Value, or AAV, because the salary cap hit for the team is always the total salary divided by the number of years on the contract. All numbers in this piece as far as contract values go will be referring to AAV.

Once teams are permitted to negotiate contracts with free agents on Wednesday, Seattle will need to find enough players to fill out their NHL roster that will give them at least $6 million more in salary. They could theoretically trade some of their cheaper talent now for players on larger contracts, but that really doesn’t seem to fit with what the team has done so far. Which leaves two options as to how Seattle will spend to the cap floor in free agency.

Note: Contract projections used in this piece come from a model developed by Josh and Luke Younggren available at evolving-hockey.com to paid subscribers

Option A: Go big or go home

They could ignore grandma’s advice and go spend it all in one place like their inner child has always wanted to. If that’s the case, Gabriel Landeskog seems to be the top target. 

The captain of the Colorado Avalanche seemed destined to remain with his team all season long, but another early playoff exit along with stalled contract talks has shifted the conversation entirely. Landeskog, at 28 years old, is looking for what will likely be his last big payday in the NHL. His linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen make $6.3M and $9.25M, respectively, and it’s safe to say Landeskog would like something in that range. The contract projection model at Evolving Hockey predicts he could command a 7-year, $8.8M deal this offseason.

With a massive new deal for superstar defender Cale Makar in the books and another big one for Philipp Grubauer still being worked out, there’s a real possibility that Colorado simply won’t have the space to match what a team could offer Landeskog in free agency. Enter the Kraken.

Seattle reportedly talked to Landeskog during the 72-hour negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, implying they were at least considering using their selection on the stud winger. Ultimately they went with Joonas Donskoi, but that doesn’t mean they can’t circle back on Landeskog this week after he has a chance to see what his skills will command to other interested parties on the open market.

Landeskog would be a huge get for Seattle, immediately giving them the star power on offense that they lack, and providing instant leadership in the locker room for the expected 7-year life of his contract. With only two other contracts over $5M AAV after this year, splurging on this big name would in no way hamstring the franchise in the immediate future. And of course, it would be really damn fun to watch in year one.

The other potentially high-priced addition could be Phillip Danault. Coming fresh off of a Stanley Cup Final appearance, Danault is known primarily as an elite defensive center. Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com has a great visual of how the Canadiens allowed far fewer high-danger shots against their goaltender with Danault on the ice, where the blue areas in the bottom-left quadrant represent a lower-than-average amount of shots allowed by the Habs.

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

He would fit in as a top-six center in Seattle along with Yanni Gourde and provide proven talent at a thin position. Like Landeskog, Danault projects to get a long-term deal this offseason, likely the maximum allowed 7 years. Evolving Hockey predicts a $6.2M cap charge for the 28-year old, which could be more than a team would like to pay for a player who has only surpassed 50 points once in his career. His defensive ability, however, is clearly enough for Seattle to take a long look at him. The Kraken did have discussions with Danault’s camp during their expansion negotiating window, but whether or not those talks will pick back up this week remains unknown.

Option B: Spread the wealth

For the price of one Gabriel Landeskog, Seattle could instead invest in two or three mid-level free agents in an attempt to fill out more than just their top line. It wouldn’t be as splashy of a move, but this option would fit in better with the strategy they have laid out thus far.

Seattle only has two players under contract for more than one season with contracts over $5M AAV—forwards Jordan Eberle and Yanni Goure. Mark Giordano carries the highest cap charge at $6.75M, but with only one year remaining it hardly hinders the team from making any move in the near future. Ron Francis has said multiple times he likes where the team is in regards to their cap situation, so it can be inferred that they’d like to keep it that way in an era where the salary cap may stay stagnant for as many as five years.

“We think [cap space] is the valuable thing to have right now, especially in the COVID environment with the flat cap,” said Francis in his post-expansion draft availability. “We went through our choices and there were some good players that were out there, but maybe we weren’t comfortable with the cap hit on some of them. We tried to draft the best team possible that we could and still keep our cap space available to hopefully do some things as we move forward.”

If Seattle wants to keep that cap flexibility to a maximum, it might behoove them to look towards some of these more affordable free agents to fill out their lineup.

Jaden Schwartz | LW | Age 28
EH projection: 3 years, $4.75M AAV

Seattle reportedly showed interest in Schwartz during the negotiating window ahead of the expansion draft, but ultimately selected the promising young defender Vince Dunn from the St. Louis Blues instead. That doesn’t mean, however, that the talks didn’t go well between Schwartz and the Kraken. In fact, Seattle now seems to be the frontrunner as his eventual landing spot.

Talks are expected to pick back up on Wednesday between the two sides, but no details of a deal have yet been reported. Schwartz would immediately slot in opposite Jordan Eberle on the team’s top line and provide proven NHL talent on the offensive side, an area with which Seattle projects to need the most help.

Zach Aston-Reese | LW | Age 26
EH Projection: 3 years, $2M AAV

Aston-Reese was a popular choice for the Kraken’s selection in the expansion draft among the analytics community. He plays very strong defense and has the ability to generate shots both off the rush and while set up in the offensive zone, as seen in the manually tracked data from Corey Sznajder.

Zach Aston-Reese is above average at shot generation both on the rush and set up in the offensive zone, per Corey Sznajder

From Corey Sznajder’s manually tracked data

Aston-Reese has not been given a qualifying offer from the Pittsburgh Penguins as of this writing, and appears to be set to become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday. He could fit in as a 3rd line winger with potential to get even better with an opportunity to play more minutes for the expansion club.

UPDATE: Zach Aston-Reese was qualified by the Pittsburgh Penguins after this post was published. He will no longer become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday.

Jujhar Khaira | C | Age 26
EH Projection: 1 year, $990K

Khaira was not extended a qualifying offer by the Edmonton Oilers, which means he becomes an unrestricted free agent this week. He’s likely a career bottom-six forward, but he can play center and spent a lot of time killing penalties last year, which is always important. If Seattle takes a run at Khaira to perhaps center their third line, that could also allow them to shelter their shiny new second-overall pick Matty Beniers on the fourth line as he develops in his first year.

The cap hits of these three players combined could very well come in around the same hit as Landeskog alone. This would net Seattle a winger who despite not being as good as Landeskog would still project as their top-line left wing as well as two more capable NHL players that could fill out their bottom-six.

Whichever method Ron Francis and the Kraken front office choose to utilize, rest assured that despite a quieter start to their organization than anticipated, they will be making plenty of moves once free agency opens up on July 28th.

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Vancouver Canucks

Canucks sign Braden Holtby after losing Jacob Markstrom in wild first day of NHL free agency

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

If you’re following along with the first day of NHL free agency, I hope you brought your coffee with you. Deals were struck all over the league, including a number of goalies finding new homes.

The Canucks were involved in the goalie chaos, losing Jacob Markstrom to the Flames while adding Braden Holtby, who joins Vancouver after a decade in Washington. Holtby, a native of Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, now returns back to his home country for the first time as a pro.

“My two things I were looking for was a place where there’s an extremely good chance of winning, and it’s going to be a good fit for my family,” said Holtby. “Being closer out west was something that was very intriguing for us.”

Holtby’s deal is for two years and is valued at $8.6 million. One thing of note for Seattle Kraken fans is that his contract does not include a no-movement clause. That means if Thatcher Demko pans out for the Canucks, they would likely expose Holtby in the upcoming expansion draft. While Holtby isn’t a young goalie per se (he recently turned 31), just ask Vegas how Marc Andre-Fleury worked out when they took him in the expansion draft at age 32.

Last season, Holtby’s performance dropped off a bit as his GAA of 3.11 was the highest of his career, and the first time that it has ever been above 3.00. His .897 save percentage was also a career-low and the first time it has dipped below the .900 mark.

“Last year was a bit of a struggle at times, it didn’t go as planned,” said Holtby. “After things kind of shut down , it was kind of a blessing in disguise that we were able to break things down and find some different ways to train. When we came back, I felt as good as I have been in a long time.”

It is expected that he will serve as backup to Thatcher Demko, who took the NHL by storm in the playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights. However, with the condensed schedule coming up, it appears that it will be more of a tandem situation. The league has expressed a goal to start next year on January 1. They’ll likely have to finish the season by the time the Olympics are scheduled to start on July 23. NBC needs to air both the Stanley Cup playoffs as well as the Olympics, so you know they are trying to avoid any overlap. That means 82 games, plus playoffs, in about 203 days. For context, the last “normal” NHL season took 252 days to complete.

“We need two goalies to withstand the amount of games we’re going to play in a short period,” said Canucks GM Jim Benning. “He’s going to be a real good leader for us.”

Holtby’s signing came on a busy first day of NHL free agency, especially for goalies. Other notable moves included Jacob Markstrom to the Flames, Henrik Lundqvist to the Capitals and Cam Talbot to the Wild.

“We tried to figure it out as best we could, but as you know, everything is different this year, “said Holtby. “It’s not an experience that I think is that fun for anyone, not knowing. I’m excited to now have it over with and to go to a great team and great city.”

During Holtby’s tenure with the Capitals, Holtby posted a record of 282-122-46 with a 2.53 GAA, a .916 save percentage and 35 shutouts in 468 career games. He was also a pivotal part of Washington’s championship run in 2018, going 16-7 with a 2.16 GAA, a .922 save percentage and two shutouts in 23 Stanley Cup Playoff games.

“We accomplished what we wanted to do there,” said Holtby. “We won a championship and I think that’s something you can never take away.”

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