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Jorge Villafaña

Portland Timbers

Timbers sign van Rankin: A look at the defensive depth chart

by Kevin Nesgoda February 3, 2021
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Portland Timbers have signed Mexican international right-back Josecarlos van Rankin from Chivas Guadalajara to a one-year loan deal with an option to buy.

Van Rankin, 27, has plenty of experience in 250+ Liga MX appearances for big-name clubs, namely Pumas. You can read all about his skillset here, although there’s nothing out of the ordinary.

His arrival comes off the heels of a wild few years of fullback changes, including:

  • Alvas Powell and Zarek Valentin’s departures

  • Team-of-the-Season-Jorge Moreira’s failure to re-sign

  • Jorge Villafaña’s return and re-departure

…and much, much more.

So far this offseason, the Timbers have added Claudio Bravo and van Rankin while subtracting Chris Duvall, Villafaña, and Gresham’s own Marco Farfan. This leaves Pablo Bonilla as Portland’s only returning outside back.

In the center of defense, Julio Cascante is the only departure, while Larrys Mabiala and Zac McGraw had their deals extended. Dario Župarić and Bill Tuiloma are still under contract.

If you’re good at counting, you may realize that totals four defensive departures and just two additions. The front office will surely be adding more depth as the offseason continues…

Gavin Wilkinson’s “Young Designated Player Center Back” signing that was mentioned at the start of the offseason has yet to materialize. Some have speculated the youngin’ may come from Brazil, as the Timbers have reportedly already had an offer declined from there.

Despite a looming lockout, let’s assume MLS matches will be played at some point this season. For the sake of exploration, here’s how the Timbers will probably look in their two-deep this year.


screenshot 2021-02-03 at 1.07.13 PM.png

A couple things to note:

  • Notice how we only have seven guys total. And I promise I’m not missing anyone.

  • I have Bonilla listed ahead of van Rankin solely because Giovanni Savarese has some outstanding fascination with him. Personally, I would start van Rankin. But we’ll see come matchday one.

  • There’s been zero indication that Gio wants to move to a back-three or anything like that. I’d be shocked if we’re not lined up in the same back-four.

So how will we fill out the roster? If that Young DP center back wish comes true, that still leaves the Timbers scarily thin at outside back.

I would hope and assume that Wilkinson & Co. take a similar approach to last year: bring in a guy like Chris Duvall for preseason trials and sign him if he fits. Personally, I liked Duvall a lot, and thought he should have been making some starts over Bonilla when both were healthy last season.

If not an MLS vet, the Timbers will likely use T2 call-ups to fill out the outside back positions. This is how Farfan got into the squad, after all. You can find a list of T2 defenders here. Aedan Stanley, who got all the left-back minutes last year, was signed by Sporting KC II over the offseason.

Again, there’s no way the Timbers will head into the regular season this thin.

Follow @doublepostpod on Twitter for instant reactions—and, as always, Go Timbers!

February 3, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers’ Mabiala, Villafaña, and More: What You Need to Know

by Kevin Nesgoda January 12, 2021
written by Kevin Nesgoda

On Tuesday Morning, the Portland Timbers announced their official signing of veteran center back Larrys Mabiala to a “multi-year contract extension.” Read the full press release here.


Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L'Amoreaux via MLS

Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L’Amoreaux via MLS

The 33-year-old from the Democratic Republic of the Congo has often been heralded as the most reliable piece of Portland’s back line since the departure of Liam Ridgewell following the 2018 season, making 99 appearances (including 97 starts) in all competitions for the Timbers.

Of course, the biggest question surrounding this move is how long Mabiala can sustain quality reps. The Timbers were already the oldest team in MLS heading into last season, and that hasn’t changed much since then.


Mabiala’s return was one of the club’s biggest objectives entering this offseason, but General Manager Gavin Wilkinson & Co. are not done.

Later this morning, the club also made an announcement about Jorge Villafaña, who has been traded to the Los Angeles Galaxy for a 2021 MLS SuperDraft first-round pick swap and potential allocation money.

The Villafaña news was first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle back in December, but it wasn’t official until today. His departure comes on the heels of a promising new left-back signing—23-year-old Claudio Bravo from Banfield in Argentina—who will require immediate playing time. You can read my breakdown of the Bravo move here.

As a 31-year-old making over $600,000, it makes perfect sense for the Timbers to move Villafaña right now. As much as I loved watching him play and will miss his presence on and off the field, this is a good idea from the front office.


With Marco Farfan, Julio Cascante, Chris Duvall, and now Jorge Villafaña all gone, Portland still has some more pieces to fit together along the back line. Bravo is coming in and Wilkinson has indicated he wants to use a Young Designated Player slot on a center back.

As of right now, Portland’s defensive roster looks like this:

  • Pablo Bonilla (21 years old, right back)

  • Claudio Bravo (23, LB)

  • Larrys Mabiala (33, CB)

  • Zac McGraw (23, CB)

  • Bill Tuiloma (25, CB)

  • Dario Župarić (28, CB)

Expect that Young Money CB and probably a cheap outside back or two before the season begins.


Speaking of the season beginning, there’s still a massive elephant in the room at MLS HQ: the Collective Bargaining Agreement. In short, the league used a force majeure to re-negotiate this year’s CBA because of the pandemic.

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I expect both sides to get things sorted out so the season can start on time in March. Still something to keep your eye on.

January 12, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers need a home win against Nashville

by Kevin Nesgoda March 6, 2020
written by Kevin Nesgoda


Photo by Ray Terrill  /  CC BY-SA 2.0

Photo by Ray Terrill / CC BY-SA 2.0

The Portland Timbers (0-0d-1, 0 pts, 12th in West) will host MLS expansion side Nashville SC (0-0-1, 0 pts, 11th in West) at home this Sunday.

Nashville played their first MLS match at home last week against Atlanta United, where they were defeated 2-1 despite the ACL injury to Atlanta star Josef Martinez.

Who:

Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC

What:

MLS Regular Season match (Week 2)

Where:

Providence Park in Portland, OR

When:

Sunday, March 8th, 2020 at 4:00pm PT

How to Watch:

ESPN (DirecTV 206, Xfinity 735, streaming on watchespn.com or ESPN App with TV login)

This is as must-win as it gets in a March non-rivalry match. [Established club who spent a lot of offseason money] should be beating [new MLS expansion team] at home, even after a crushing loss versus Minnesota last week.

What to Expect Tactically

NSC

Here is Nashville’s lineup from last week. Lots of MLS experience, and I expect them to learn quickly from mistakes that were made against Atlanta.


nsclineup.png

Players to Watch

  • Walker Zimmerman is coming off a stellar Best-XI season at LAFC. He’s got 12 U.S. Men’s National Team caps, too, if you’re into that kind of thing.

  • David Accam is always dangerous on the right wing, even though he didn’t have a great performance last week against Atlanta.

  • Hany Mukhtar is Nashville’s playmaker. He also had a sub-par match against ATL, though, conceding possession 18 times.

Nashville were set off to a rocky start less than 10 minutes into their first MLS season. Atlanta’s Ezequiel Barco scored in the ninth minute with a perfectly-placed strike from long distance. I want to focus on that goal to see what went wrong for Nashville.

This goal is a perfect example of how good Atlanta are at exploiting an opponent’s mistakes. First, it was Randall Leal‘s sloppy press on Atlanta defender Franco Escobar, who played a one-two with Martinez.

This is MLS midfield play at its best—the threat of Martinez (with his back to goal and firmly in the midfield) draws the attention of three Nashville players (Dax McCarty, Anibal Godoy, and Walker Zimmerman).


nashvilleconcede1.png

This opens up a pocket of space for Barco to receive the ball. Zimmerman, caught out of position after pressuring Martinez, now has to sprint back, as does the right back Eric Miller.


nsc2.png

After the ball goes through Miller’s legs, Barco *could* have played this out wide to his left wing back, but the space allowed by Zimmerman is enough for him to cut inside and release a laser into the bottom corner.


nsc3.png

This goal is the result of a series of basic defensive mistakes by Nashville, typical of an expansion side.

Zimmerman redeemed himself with a goal off a long set piece 20 minutes later, but Nashville failed to clear a corner in the 38th minute and Hyndman covered himself in glory with an impeccable control-and-volley.

Nashville should not be overlooked, though. They competed with Atlanta throughout the match, and this very easily could have been a draw or even a win for the MLS newcomers. Their concessions came from dumb mistakes and their attacks produced genuine chances.

PTFC

Speaking of defensive mistakes, Portland’s back line was downright awful in a 3-1 loss to Minnesota last week. I would target a couple weak chemistry links between Portland’s back four if I could, but the reality is that all of them need to get on the same page. What I can derive from Minnesota’s goals are that (1) Jorge Villafaña and Jorge Moreira cannot afford to both push up at the same time, (2) all four defenders need to communicate, and (3) the individual marking needs to improve… drastically.

Portland’s attack is still a work in progress, but the short story is that Yimmi Chará needs to be a winger, everyone needs to be more active in buildup play, and Felipe Mora is better than some people’s attitudes are indicating. He will score a lot of goals this season if the first two conditions are met.

TL;DR: Both these teams are looking to establish coherence amongst their defenses.


03.01.20pred.png

Portland’s lineup will probably look the same as last week’s. There’s not really anything to change; the players just need to execute better.

(No history section this week because, well, there isn’t any history.)

Odds and Prediction

Portland -200 / Draw +330 / Nashville +500

I hate to say it, but I don’t like think these lines are accurate at all. Maybe I’m just pessimistic. Nashville will surprise us with their quality. If I were betting on this, I’d take the over 3 goals at +110, simply because both teams are still struggling defensively and have a lot of offensive firepower.

Prediction: A 2-2 draw that feels a lot better than it really was.

March 6, 2020 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers Roster Updates and Mock Depth Chart

by Kevin Nesgoda February 2, 2020
written by Kevin Nesgoda
saprissa.jpg

The season is almost here, and it appears Portland is almost ready to go. The squad is currently doing some preseason training in Costa Rica. Their first preseason match was yesterday against Saprissa, which Portland won 2-1.

The Timbers recently picked up Chilean forward Felipe Mora and Polish forward Jaroslaw Niezgoda.

My first article here at CSN was about where a new signing named Brian Fernández would play. Times change. Players come and go. So here I am, predicting how two new forwards will fit into the squad.

Felipe Mora

Mora is on a loan using Targeted Allocation Money, according to The Athletic. The loan reportedly includes an option to buy, which means Portland can retain him next season if he finally becomes the #9 we’ve been looking for since… well, the #9 we’ve been looking for.

https://twitter.com/PumasMX/status/1221606061381169153?s=19

Mora has played in Chile and Mexico, the latter with Cruz Azul and Pumas.

Mora is a pure #9. He plants himself on the defense’s backline, often in between the opponent center backs. Most of his goals come from headers and poaching chances in the box. Not a bad plan for a team that fell into the empty void of crosses last season—Portland was 2nd in MLS in crosses (557) and 12th in goals scored (53)—so after a naive first glance, it would seem they need a proven poacher upfront.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH-PBeH_F08

Jarek Niezgoda

Brian Fernández was more of a dynamic forward, and so is Jarek Niezgoda, Portland’s newest signee. Niezgoda probably cost just under $4 million in transfer fees, and he joins the squad as a Designated Player, occupying the third and final DP spot on the Timbers’ roster.

https://twitter.com/TimbersFC/status/1222942735549624320?s=20

Since becoming a bonafide starter for Legia Warsaw in 2017, Niezgoda has scored 39 goals in 87 appearances. This includes a Polish-league-leading 14 goals in 18 appearances in the latest installment of the Ekstraklasa.

He’s a spry 24, so hopefully a touch quicker than CSN’s own Kevin Nesgoda.

After announcing the signing of Niezgoda, Timbers GM Gavin Wilkinson gave a very interesting sigh of relief to MLS’s Tom Bogert. Included was a scouting report of the new striker:

“Jarek is capable of playing as a single No. 9 or as a two, and he’s even played out wide in the past. Balancing his characteristics with Jeremy, we feel very good about that position. He’s a goal scorer, comfortable with both feet. Good size, good athleticism and can finish in a variety of ways. He attacks the ball. With his feet, he’s very quick, gets the ball off his foot very quickly and he’s an honest, hard-working player.”

via Tom Bogert

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzPSadilxLg&t=1s

On the Pitch

In the aforementioned report, Gavin indicated the Timbers would announce the signings of Mora and Cristhian Paredes (who is still technically on loan from Club América). These were both given substance by fan-turned-insider Keith Palau, and the former was confirmed by the Timbers.

https://twitter.com/kpduck/status/1223129066464612352?s=20

Portland will have two DP attacking wingers and one DP forward. My assumption is that all three of these players will start, making an all-DP front line of Sebástian Blanco, Niezgoda, and Yimmi Chará. Both Blanco and Yimmi historically like to cut inside, meaning the Jorges (Moreira and Villafaña) will continue to bomb up the flanks and send in crosses.

This is all fine and good, except it would be ideal to have a big center forward on the end of those. Mora may seem like the obvious choice for this, but keep in mind that Niezgoda is 6’1″—small in basketball, but pretty dang tall for a soccer player. Within his quick assessment of Niezgoda, head coach Giovanni Savarese mentioned the forward being “good with his head,” so it hopefully he’s still be an aerial threat.

Possible Starting Formations

As per last week’s roster check, this is still how I saw the starting XI shaking out:

But Gavin’s comments from last week have me almost certain of a two-forward system. He mentioned the system itself and made it clear Jebo had a place in the squad:

“We believe in Jeremy Ebobisse,” Wilkinson said. ”He’s a quality player with a big upside and he’s not the finished product, so we have to be careful not to limit his growth and minutes. We wanted to acquire a Young DP that also has an upside that Jeremy can compete with, and with a profile to change systems and tactics so they can play with one another.”

via Tom Bogert

This dual-striker idea, while presenting an attacking pipe dream (via a probable solution to Portland’s problem of breaking down teams in a low block), begs the question—if we’re adding a forward, who comes off the field?

My instincts say a holding midfielder (so, Paredes) or moving to three at the back by replacing Villafaña and Moreira with another fullback (probably Bill Tuiloma). Playing with three center backs is something Savarese mentioned at Portland’s Media Day last week.

I’d also welcome a three-man backline that still included the regular outside fullbacks. For these purposes, I’m assuming the Jorges’ attacking tendencies (and long-lamented lack of tracking back) would keep them out of this system, but I’m sure Gio could justify a way of making it work.

Maybe some Jebo on the Wing™ will be a starting option in a 4-3-3.

Right now, the 4-3-3 would be my best guess as to what the Timbers will put out on March 1st. It checks all the boxes Gavin mentioned and keeps Portland’s most proven players on the field in a system that’s still similar to Gio’s past ones.

If one thing’s clear from these signings, it’s that it’s finally time to say goodbye to Savarese’s beloved 4-3-2-1 “Christmas Tree” that served as Portland’s security blanket XI in the past two years. Poor Tannenbaum.

Portland may also play with five at the back that adapts into a 3-6-1 or 3-5-2 in attack to utilize the strengths of the Jorges. Feel free to choose your own adventure and plugin Jebo somewhere with this formation, too.

Regardless of what exact system Gio goes with, the fact that we can even speculate this much highlights an important feature of this team: its positive evolution. At the beginning of last season, we were struggling to select 11 guys that were starting-caliber MLS players. Now it seems we have an embarrassment of riches, especially up top.

Although we haven’t seen them in action yet, Gavin and owner Merritt Paulson should be receiving a bit of praise for clearly identifying areas of need and filling them with no-nonsense signings. Again, we have to see how these newbies adapt, but on paper, it’s a job well done.

Depth Chart

Here’s my interpretation of a hypothetical Timbers “depth chart”—I went for realisticness over the organization. Considering we’re pretty far from even knowing what kind of formation or system we’ll play, it’s safe to say most of this is up in the air. Still, feel free to slander me on any social media platform or the comments below.

Goalkeeper

  1. Steve Clark
  2. Jeff Attinella
  3. Aljaz Ivacic

Steve Clark has proven his spot as the first keeper over the course of last season. In 24 starts last season, Clark finished third in MLS in save percentage (.755), second in goals allowed per 90 (1.04) and recorded a clean sheet 25% of the time. The Timbers are clearly committed to Clark, giving him a new contract over the offseason.

Attinella is still a starting-quality ‘keeper for the most part, and he did start in 10 matches last season. While he conceded 24 goals in that stretch, it’s worth noting that both these goalies dealt with some truly abysmal performances by the other 10 players throughout the season, too.

Ivacic is the clear choice above other Timbers 2 goalies Kendall McIntosh (who has departed) and Jake Leeker, who he’ll continue to share reps with in the USL Championship with T2.

Center Back

  1. Larrys Mabiala
  2. Dario Zuparic
  3. Bill Tuiloma*
  4. Julio Cascante

One of Portland’s worst overall positions last year was center back. When Larrys Mabiala was out with an injury, it seemed the Cascante-Tuiloma pairing took much too long to gel. Claude Dielna (who was not resigned) struggled to keep up with the competition when called upon, as well. Even when Mabiala returned, the defense was still not up to snuff. Often times, it took Steve Clark standing on his head to keep the ball out of the net.

It wasn’t surprising, then, that the first big offseason move Portland made was to sign a new center back, Dario Zuparic. A TAM signing, Zuparic will probably be good enough, especially because of Gio’s indication that Tuiloma can be used at positions other than CB.

*As of yesterday’s match against Saprissa, Tuiloma will be out for two months. Better sign another defender…

Left Back

  1. Jorge Villafaña
  2. Marco Farfan
  3. Bill Tuiloma

No signings have been made here (yet), so the depth chart pretty much stays the same.

Farfan is preferred on the left, and it feels like Moreira’s spot is a tad more secure than Villafaña’s.

Bill will appear on both outside back positions just as a filler. Unless there are injuries, I doubt we’ll actually see him there.

Right Back

  1. Jorge Moreira
  2. Marco Farfan
  3. Bill Tuiloma

Again, nothing new here, although right back was an area addressed by Gavin and Gio at Media Day. Farfan is still the second string at both these positions assuming he recovers well from injury.

Chris Duvall is currently on trial as a right back with the squad in Costa Rica. He’d be a solid backup at a thin position.

Stopper

  1. Diego Chará
  2. Cristhian Paredes
  3. Renzo Zambrano
  4. Andres Flores*
  5. Eryk Williamson
  6. Bill Tuiloma

*Flores is out for a bit with a meniscus tear, but that shouldn’t change this order too much.

Depending on how Gio decides to set up, we may continue to see the Paredes/Chará pairing in the holding midfield. If only one is used, it will be Chará. Portland’s only All-Star last year was sent there for a reason. He still hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, even at 33.

Zambrano and Williamson got intermittent reps with the first team last year, and Williamson especially got some crucial minutes. The soon-to-be-23-year-old played a full 90 in Portland’s 2-1 home win over Sporting Kansas City in September and started the next match, playing 61 more minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed the more experienced Zambrano during the year.

Tuiloma has actually played a bit of stopper for us in the past, so he’s another viable option should the midfield get thin.

Central Attacking Midfielder

  1. Diego Valeri
  2. Sebástian Blanco
  3. Tomás Conechny
  4. Eryk Williamson
  5. Blake Bodily

This might as well be called “the Valeri position.” It’s not exactly a #10 creative piece, but it’s also not a pure #8 box-to-box duty. El Maestro is back on a new contract, and although he’s no longer a DP, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting in this spot.

Blanco will often push in from the wing and be another creator from the inside, giving Portland more options in attack. When Valeri’s out, he’s filled in well at this spot, too.

Conechny has shown flashes of his ability to lead the team from the attacking midfield—our best example being the 2-1 midweek loss at Montréal from last year in which a bunch of fringe-starters and T2 guys played. Conechny scored in this match, although Williamson occupied this position.

I put Bodily here because he’s a warm body that can play in the midfield. Maybe he get some Open Cup appearances.

Winger

  1. Sebástian Blanco
  2. Yimmi Chará
  3. Jeremy Ebobisse
  4. Marvin Loría
  5. Andy Polo
  6. Dairon Asprilla
  7. Tomás Conechny
  8. Eryk Williamson

I’ve grouped the wingers together because in Savarese’s offense they are essentially interchangeable. All of these guys can play on either side of the field, it’s just a matter of where they line up. In my lineups I’ve been putting Yimmi on the right and Blanco on the left for simplicity, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gio swapped them.

As mentioned previously, both Yimmi and Seba tend to cut inside, while Jebo gets in the box more and the rest mostly stay out on the wing.

Blanco and Yimmi Chará will both start, and you could basically swap them at 1 and 2 if you wanted to. I expect 1-4 on this list to get playing time, though. While Loría only logged 700 MLS minutes last year, he’s still only 22 with plenty of upside—just needs more first-team minutes.

As for Polo and Asprilla, I have to think they’d really need to show improvement to see significant minutes. Portland added two DP attackers, and it always seemed like Polo and Asprilla were placeholders rather than preferred starters.

Forward

  1. Jarek Niezgoda
  2. Jeremy Ebobisse
  3. Felipe Mora

While we may end up with an aforementioned two-striker system, the pecking order seems to be like this. I expect all three of these players to get significant playing time this year, albeit in this order.

While I have doubts about Niezgoda’s ability to produce like Brian Fernández did, I’m remaining optimistic.

According to this Richard Farley article, Mora’s more of a “Hey, this guy is buried in the bench of a solid Mexican team, so we might as well add some quality depth at forward” (quote non-verbatim). I like this move, and while Mora has a “3” beside him on my depth chart, he’s more of a 1.5-2. When we’re tied or down late in a match, it’ll be nice to have someone other than Asprilla to bring on.

Adieu

If I’ve learned anything from writing this, it’s that I am absolutely itching for the season to start. It’s a shame that the preseason matches in Costa Rica won’t be streamed, but I’ll see if I can piece together what goes on down there.

https://twitter.com/TimbersFC/status/1222034885826637824?s=20

Dare I say… if we sign a backup right back, this will be the deepest Timbers squad we’ve seen since 2015, possibly ever.

February 2, 2020 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Making sense of a nonsensical season, both on and off the pitch

by Kevin Nesgoda September 15, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
ouch.jpg

After a deeply disappointing home loss to D.C. United, the Portland Timbers (13-4D-12, 43 pts, 7th in West) head into the home stretch of the season. Despite constant belief that “games in hand” and “home field advantage” will automatically launch Portland into a decent playoff spot, the Timbers ended Sunday night in 7th place. Again.

Standings via SofaScore

While Portland still does have that game in hand and four out of five remaining matches at Providence Park, this team is still largely facing the same questions it has all year. Despite relative success in the U.S. Open Cup, Portland have failed to put together three consecutive MLS wins since last school year (remember that weird pocket of victories in Columbus, Toronto, and Salt Lake?).

Heading into a midweek match against the usually-formidable New York Red Bulls (12-5D-13, 41 pts, 6th in East), Portland need more than a win—they need a convincing one. New York is having an off year by their standards, coming off three straight losses and the Timbers will likely have their starting lineup back in the attacking half. This will be the second match of five in fifteen days for the Timbers, but defender Jorge Villafaña didn’t seem too concerned about if affecting them on the field: “It’s all out. You can’t save anything [when on the field]. Having matches every three or four days…we like it, and we just try to do everything possible to be ready for the games.”

The biggest tactical flaw in Portland’s offensive system has been in the Timbers’ inability to break down defenses…do I sound like a broken record yet? While this issue was on full display against D.C. in Sunday’s loss, it was without key starters Sebastián Blanco and Brian Fernández. As Diego Valeri reminded us postgame, “we did it last week,” referring to the game-winning goal against Sporting Kansas City in which all 11 of the opposition’s players began behind the ball.

Despite his aging, Diego Valeri is still the catalyst for Portland’s attack
Ray Terrill [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

FiveThirtyEight’s MLS Playoff projections for the Timbers have decreased a couple percentage points since the last time I wrote about them, and the most likely playoff spot is one that would require a midweek road win to advance. Sitting back and counterattacking has treated Portland well in the past, especially in the playoffs, but with the embarrassment of attacking riches, it would be much more satisfying on the ol’ blood pressure to see some better crosses to green shirts in the box.

Any squad with the three aforementioned players should have the ability to score consistently, especially when key links such as Diego Chará, Jorge Moreira, and others are in the mix. That’s at least four or five starting-caliber MLS players on almost any squad in the league. Savarese knows they’re capable, and so do they. So do the fans, analysts, and writers alike. The Timbers have the tools to get it done, but the critical touch, pass, or finish is often lacking—which is why this season has become so frustrating.

We all promised ourselves things would get better. Excuses were made, and convincing results are still yet to come.

While the on-field product has been a mixed bag to say the least, many Timbers supporters are dealing with a much larger issue—one that has nothing to do with goals, standings, or tactics. Those who know of the Iron Front saga are concerned. Those who have been affected are enraged, and you may be as well, upon further examination. (I will not be recapping said saga in this article, but you can find great reads on it here and here. I also encourage you to do your own research or ask any seasoned Timbers Army supporter; most will be more than happy to explain.)

The Timbers front office has effectively boxed itself into a catch-22: abiding by MLS’s controversial Fan Code of Conduct has clearly not fared well, and making the TA happy will likely beckon a (previously nonexistent) backlash of conflict from the other end of the political spectrum, which has already begun. For many, this season will be overshadowed by a newfound distrust in upper management, regardless of what transpires on the pitch.

We all promised ourselves things would get better. Excuses were made, and convincing results are still yet to come.

The story of this season is yet to be determined, and the ending might not be all sunshine and roses. The Timbers could realistically tumble out of the playoffs in the early rounds, or even miss them altogether. The ongoing talks between scarves and suits could also go nowhere, potentially leaving core supporters with a personal choice between the team they love and the beliefs they hold. These are worst-case scenarios, of course, but are nonetheless hypotheticals that need to be taken seriously.

So what would the best-case scenario be? First off, it would be fantastic for the Timbers to win, and then win some more, and then win a whole lot more—f*ck it, maybe even win a trophy. No matter what happens in the stands, on Twitter, or in conference rooms, winning will always be better. Even if no common ground is reached by MLS and its supporters, a Portland playoff run would only give more exposure to the Iron Front issue, and probably the symbol itself.

As far as an agreement of the Iron Front issue, I’m honestly not certain as to what an ideal result would be at this point. To those heavily invested in the dispute, the front office has done irreversible damage. Timbers Owner Merritt Paulson has already rubbed the Timbers Army the wrong way by siding with MLS, and some in dissent have even gone so far as to cancel season ticket renewals. The best course of action would seemingly be to remove the word “political” from the MLS Fan Code of Conduct, but as mentioned earlier, I fear this may create an even more violent conflict between right and left, one that has escalated considerably over the past few years in this country.

No matter how much the Timbers front office foreseeably apologizes, removes the ban, or kisses the feet of the Timbers Army, everyone will have known the course of action they took. They made a clear decision to obey Major League Soccer over the will of its most devoted fans, a choice that comes with consequences, some of which they are surely yet to face.

Major League Soccer is always desperate for attention. If you’re an American soccer fan, you know this. You have sat through countless promotions, commercials, and advertisements for anyone willing to front the bill. One in particular, Audi, uses the motto “Goals Drive Progress” to fund MLS academies. They use it in Golden Boot graphics, goal highlights, and Taylor Twellman even wrote an article about it. All that is great, and is necessary to build a strong league, but the hypocrisy presented here is laughable—MLS’s recent goals have silenced supporters, certainly not driving progress.

In order to score goals, a team must consistently create chances—the Timbers in particular need to take charge of possession, progress the ball, and be proactive. Complacency can be useful in certain settings, and it can lead to goals when provoked, but absorbing pressure can only work for so long. Creativity, collaboration, and critical thinking are of the utmost importance. If Savarese’s men can make this happen on the field, one can only hope that they will lead by example for our friends in the front office.

September 15, 2019 8 comments
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Portland Timbers

Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Preview: 8/31/19

by Kevin Nesgoda August 30, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda
Fanendo_Adi_Portland_Timbers_vs_RSL_2016-09-10_29613806605.jpg

The Portland Timbers (11-4D-11, 37 pts, 8th in West) and Real Salt Lake (13-4D-10, 43 pts, 2nd in West) will meet in a classic late-season Saturday night showdown at Providence Park. 

Match Info

  • Time: Saturday, August 31st @ 7:30pm PT
  • Location: Providence Park, Portland, OR
  • TV: FOX 12 Plus (channel 49)

As you probably know, this match has huge implications beyond simply extending a mini unbeaten streak or avenging the legendary 2013 squad. A quick look at the Western Conference standings reveal 8th place Portland trails 2nd place RSL by only six points. I feel like a broken record when I mention Portland’s game in hand, but it only means something if they can capitalize on it. Two straight home defeats on national television and an injuries to both starting center backs didn’t do much to help that cause. 

Standings provided by Sofascore LiveScore

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A couple weeks ago, I looked at FiveThirtyEight’s MLS predictions for the Timbers, which gave them a 90% chance to make the playoffs. While that number is down, 83% is still a pretty good shot. The bigger question lies in what position the Timbers will finish. An expanded playoff format guarantees home field advantage for the top four teams in each conference, but Portland still has work to do:

Timbers final position in Western Conference standings FiveThirtyEight Probability (%)
2nd* 13%
3rd* 16%
4th* 15%
5th** 14%
6th** 12%
7th** 12%
8th or less (missing playoffs) 18%

  • *=home playoff match guaranteed
  • **=away match in 1st round

This only adds to the stress of the match for the Timbers, who already need this win badly.

On the Iron Front front

As you also probably know, there has been a much bigger issue raging in the background of these last few matches: while the Iron Front ban protest was certainly noticed, neither the league nor the Timbers Army seem keen to give up their side. Owner Merritt Paulson mildly evaded a question about fan safety to re-hash the issue of the flag’s political nature during a Portland Thorns Q&A, while the TA has stated they are in “ongoing talks” with the Timbers front office. This writer stands with the Timbers Army and hopes that the ban is rescinded soon.

Other Noteworthy Matches

Before we get to the match at hand, there are a couple of other critical matches you might want to be aware of before the Timbers kick off at 7:30. If college football isn’t your thing (and you have ESPN+), definitely check out these first two:

  • Cincinnati @ Dallas, 4:00 PT
    • FC Dallas is currently sitting on 40 points (three ahead of the Timbers), but they have also played two more matches. This should be an easy win for Dallas at home against the worst team in MLS, but we’ve seen crazier things happen in MLS. Root for Cincy!
  • Houston @ Kansas City, 4:30 PT
    • Don’t look now, but if Portland slips up in the remaining matches, these two sides will be nipping at their heels, especially Kansas City. SKC is within three points of the Timbers, and although Portland does have a game in hand, two remaining meetings with KC could make the playoff race trickier than expected. Root for a draw or Houston win!
  • Orlando City @ San Jose, 7:30 PT
    • This match will start at the same time as Portland’s, but keep an eye on San Jose, who are one of the teams Portland are chasing in the Western Conference standings. Root for Orlando!
  • LA Galaxy @ Seattle, 2:30 PT Sunday
    • Take a look at this matchup if you find time Sunday. The performances of both these teams will be critical to Portland’s playoff position. Root for a draw, although seeing either of these teams lose will surely bring a wry smile.

Match Primer

Ok, onto the match itself. In order to win this match, Portland will need to stop Albert Rusnák. The Slovak #11 pulls the strings for RSL’s attack, and if RSL sits deep to absorb pressure (more on that later), his creativity is deadly on the counter-attack. Luckily, the Timbers have Diego Chará, who is more than capable. Who they won’t have, though, is Larrys Mabiala and Julio Cascante. During the bulk of the regular season, this duo was the preferred starting center back pairing for head coach Giovanni Savarese—although I still prefer Tuiloma over Cascante when both are healthy.

Replacement Claude Dielna has had his fair share of mistakes, but he has also had some solid matches, most notably against NYCFC, Orlando City, and Colorado. It should be noted that Dielna’s weakness, though, is his lack of pace. This was exploited quite easily by Mason Toye and Minnesota United earlier this month. If RSL does end up finding space on the counter, things will be a lot more nervy for Portland’s back line. 

Lineups

What curveball will Gio throw us this week? Last week we had Marvin Loría starting over Jeremy Ebobisse and Zarek Valentin getting the nod over an injured Jorge Moreira. Now, Valentin is questionable with a hamstring injury and the Timbers find themselves with four healthy players on the back line (at least it makes my prediction easier). In the midfield, Cristhian Paredes should get the start next to Chará, but there have been rumblings of a leg injury that would undoubtedly see Renzo Zambrano get the start. In the attack, there have been some proponents of seeing Brian Fernández play out on the wing, but these pipe dreams were mostly dismissed by Gio’s comments in training. With rest no longer a factor (for now), I expect the lineup to look like this:

There have been suggestions of moving Fernández out to the wing, but Savarese does not seem too keen about the idea

Keys

  • Scoring against a low block: It’s no secret that Portland has had their fair share of trouble against defenses that stay compact and look to counter-attack. It’s how the Timbers made it to MLS Cup last year, and it’s how teams have been grabbing points from them this year. Hopefully getting Moreira back will help attack wide areas and exploit a back line that has given up only 34 goals this season.
  • Scoring the first goal: I know, duh. You want your team to score all the goals, not just the first one. But conceding the first goal buried the Timbers in their last two losses. I guess this key should read: Score before the other team, or if you don’t, don’t let yourself keep playing poorly.
  • Keeping things tidy on the back line: The last (and only) time Dielna and Tuiloma started together, it was part of a 5-man back line designed to stop Zlatan Ibrahimovic that went…poorly. This will be a big experiment, and I wouldn’t be that surprised to see a—dare I say it—back three at some point on Saturday. Salt Lake will be licking their chops at the thought of attacking this back four, and it could be a massive game for Steve Clark between the sticks.

RSL’s strategy should be to sit back and take what the Timbers give them on the counter. They are facing a pair of questionable center backs in Cascante and Dielna, and suddenly Sam Johnson’s nine goals in 20 appearances look even more impressive. HOWEVER, I think Portland wins this match because Real Salt Lake comes out of their shell and tries to compete. As long as the back line avoids any egregious errors, I think this should be a classic home win for the Timbers. 

And finally…

After a lengthy delay, my friend Reece and I have finally released the first episode of the Double Post Podcast! Check us out on Soundcloud and Twitter to keep up with all the hottest takes in the Timbers community.

As always, thanks for reading and go Timbers!

August 30, 2019 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Portland Timbers vs Philadelphia Union 5/25/19 Tactical Preview

by Kevin Nesgoda May 24, 2019
written by Kevin Nesgoda


fernandez-debut.jpg

The Portland Timbers have slowed down since their recent three-game win spurt, and now face two of the best squads in Major League Soccer over the next two weeks: the Philadelphia Union and LAFC. Saturday’s match in Philadelphia will be Portland’s final road match before the new-and-improved Providence Park opens its gates on June 1st vs LAFC.Portland ground out a point at Houston last Wednesday thanks to a stellar debut and goal by new Designated Player signing Brian Fernández. While Fernández only came on in the 65th minute, he was clearly an immediate upgrade from Andy Polo on the right side of the attack. Polo actually had a decent match—nearly creating a cheeky assist for Sebastián Blanco in the 16th minute—but Fernández proved to be a direct threat as soon as he stepped onto the pitch for Portland.

Scouting Report

The Union are off to a blistering start to the first third of the season, earning an Eastern Conference-best 24 points from 13 matches, including seven wins in their last 10. Their most recent match was a scoreless draw against second-place Seattle. Despite controlling two-thirds of the possession and out-shooting the Sounders 20-6, the Union were unable to get the ball into Stefan Frei’s net (sound familiar?). Regardless, it was an impressive performance against the second-best team in the league this year.Philadelphia operates in a 4-4-2 diamond, with the forwards and wings pressing against the back line and attacking midfielder Brenden Aaronson pressuring the holding midfielder. Portland must be able to either pass through this press or find ways to win headers in the midfield and recover possession. The speed of Fernández is certainly an important factor here, but the passing deft of the back line and holding midfield will be the difference going forward.The Union could have an emerging star in Aaronson, but most of the goal production has come from 26-year-old forward Kacper Przybylko, who has scored three goals in just six appearances for the Union so far, and has arguably been Philly’s best player since entering the lineup. The German-born Pole will impose both his size and quick passing skill to try and break Portland’s back line.It will be crucial for Julio Cascante and Bill Tuiloma to not get stretched too wide and track Przybylko’s sporadic runs throughout the attacking third. This also requires defensive tracking from the wide backs, which was a lingering issue in the match against Houston.

Tactical Preview

Philly’s diamond can also be vulnerable to wide play, so getting Jorge Moreira and Jorge Villafaña (or Zarek Valentin) forward to combine with the midfield is crucial. If Fernández is placed in the midfield, Diego Valeri will take over more defensive responsibilities than usual. Fernández could start for Ebobisse up top, though, and Flores or Polo would retain the right midfield spot, where they have both been solid defensively.Moreira has shown his ability to get crosses off in the attacking half, but his defensive positioning has given the Timbers problems. In the last match alone, Moreira lost his man frequently, inciting a goal in the first half and multiple near-breakaway chances in the second. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Zarek Valentin starting for Moreira at right back, especially if Fernandez is in the starting XI.Fernández scored the tying goal just 12 minutes into his debut, and his movement into wide spaces almost earned the Timbers a winner eight minutes later. He poses a legitimate threat to any back line, and will likely get the start on Saturday over Polo or Andrés Flores.Elsewhere in the lineup, Cristhian Paredes will not be available, meaning Renzo Zambrano would most likely take his place in the central midfield, but he is already with the Venezuelan National Team. Zambrano filled in surprisingly well for the suspended Diego Chará last week, showing great passing and organizational ability for the majority of the match—Renzo completed 38 passes at 86% accuracy, including 6/6 accurate long balls.https://twitter.com/RenzoZambrano_/status/1131741427942211584The biggest mystery about Giovanni Savarese’s starting lineup, though, may be at usually the most predictable position: goalkeeper. Last week, Jeff Attinella was great between the sticks, saving eight shots—six of which were from inside the 18. Jeff still struggled with distributing the ball, but his performance was solid nonetheless. Steve Clark has been just as good when called upon, so it appears to be a toss-up for this weekend.

Prediction: 2-1 Philadelphia

Philadelphia pose a unique threat for the Timbers. What they lack in raw star power, they make up for in their chemistry and execution. Any points for the Timbers are fine in this match. It’s been a gruesome and polarizing 12-match road trip (which, by the way, is the longest in MLS history). There have been zero clean sheets, a win streak, an even longer losing streak, and a blizzard. This may end up looking like the most disappointing stretch of the season, but it has still set the Timbers up to fight from behind for the rest of the year.

Tactical Keys for Portland’s success:

  • Breaking Philly’s Press
  • Attacking wide spaces
  • Staying organized defensively

Match Info:

  • Time: Saturday, May 25th, 2019 @ 4:30 p.m. PT
  • Location: Talen Energy Stadium, Chester, PA, USA
  • TV: Root Sports (local), ESPN+ (national)
  • Radio: 750 AM/102.9 FM The Game
  • Odds from Bovada (as of 5/23): Philadelphia -165, Draw +300, Portland +390
May 24, 2019 0 comment
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