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The Expansion Draft: First Impressions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

Ron Francis took the stage on Wednesday evening with his polo shirt unbuttoned and his gold chain hanging out, oozing the confidence and weariness of a man that’s been up for three days straight plotting the best methods to steal a player from every team in the NHL. How did he and his staff do in that regard is a difficult question to answer, so today I’ll simply gather some thoughts on various aspects of the selections as we try to make sense of the team-building philosophy the Kraken have now put forth.

-Cap space is every bit as valuable to this team as anyone predicted. Ignoring all your mock expansion drafts that saw Seattle hitting $70 million in salary from the jump, Seattle decided that they would not take on any contracts that would give them salary cap issues. In fact, they barely managed to reach the minimum required cap space in the expansion rules ($48.9M). After the Jamie Oleksiak, Chris Driedger, and Adam Larsson signings, CapFriendly projects the current roster to cost $52.5M. That leaves them with just shy of $29M in cap space and $8M below the NHL’s salary cap floor. Not only does this mean they have the ability to be aggressive in free agency, they’re actually required to do something in order to reach that cap floor.

-The biggest contract they took on was Mark Giordano’s $6.75M deal with just one year left on it. Yanni Gourde and Jordan Eberle are the only other players making more than $5M per year. So while we can expect the team to be active when free agency opens up on July 28th, don’t go thinking just yet that they’ll open the pocket book for an albatross contract for someone like Gabriel Landeskog. I’m expecting more mid-level free agents. They were reportedly interested in Jaden Schwartz in the two-day negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, and have been in contact with Zach Hyman’s camp as well. [UPDATE: Hyman has reportedly reached a deal with the Edmonton Oilers for 7-8 years, $5M AAV] Evolving Hockey projects Schwartz to get a 3-year, $4.75M AAV deal, while Hyman is projected to get a 4-year, $5.3M deal. Both would stay in the realm of the contracts the Kraken have taken on (and handed out) in regards to both value and term.

-They’re big. Half of the Kraken’s 12 selections on defense are at least 6’3”, with Jamie Oleksiak leading the way at 6’7”. How important is size, especially among defenders? That’s debatable, but it is always fun to see a big guy manning the blue line.

-Speaking of fun blue lines, how cool is it that brothers Cale and Haydn Fleury both got selected? The two have not played on a team together since they were five and three years old, and here they are with a chance to prove themselves at the highest level on a brand new hockey team.

“He Facetimed me this morning….and he instantly called my parents and brought them into the call. And it was a really special day. My mom, I think, was crying. I don’t know; I couldn’t see her. But it was a really exciting day. And I just couldn’t be more proud of him. And just ready for him to be my teammate.”

Be still, my heart.

-Mark Giordano was there on the stage in Seattle. With only one year left on his deal and still a productive defender at age 37, Giordano could be a prime trade candidate for the Kraken either early this offseason or even at the trade deadline this coming year, but bringing him out in a Kraken sweater at the end of the evening seems to indicate that Seattle would prefer to keep him around all year. Maybe even longer.

-There will likely be more of a goalie tandem than a starter and backup situation this year. Chris Driedger and Vitek Vanecek have started a mere 70 games combined in their careers. Both netminders played unexpectedly well this past season, so it appears the hope is that they both continue to build on solid performances as they get more starts in net with this new team. Joey Daccord, the 24-year old selection from the Ottawa Senators, has even less experience and will be the goalie sent to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers. It’s an inexperienced, high-upside core of goaltenders coming to Seattle.

-Where were all the side deals? Some people posited that teams would learn from the Vegas expansion and be reluctant to make trades with Seattle, and it appears they were correct. There have been zero reported side deals made during the expansion process, and very few rumors of trades still to be made involving recently selected players. Ron Francis all but confirmed the suspicions after the show.

“This was going to be so much different than what Vegas did. Vegas did a good job taking advantage of the rules and everyone’s lack of experience…They had a lot more time to prepare for us. Last time GMs were more willing to overpay to protect certain assets. This time they learned from that and they weren’t willing to make the mistakes they made last time.”

It appears that in the game of chicken between Francis and every other GM in the league, nobody blinked, and Seattle simply ended up grabbing their best player available at each stop.

-What are those choices from Philadelphia, LA, and Columbus? Max Domi wouldn’t have been as good of a pick as people might’ve thought, with one year left on his deal and currently dealing with an injury to go alongside a career-worst year with just 24 points in 54 games, but why Gavin Bayreuther over the more proven Dean Kukan, who is only one year older? In Philadelphia it’s fairly easy to get on board with avoiding the James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek contracts, but what is it about Carsen Twarynksi that makes him more attractive than Robert Hägg or even Connor Bunnaman? And as far as LA goes, I know they didn’t have a lot of good looking options, but most of them looked better than Kurtis MacDermid.

-Jordan Eberle was there, in a jersey! He looked fantastic (and short compared to the rest of the guys there) and in all likelihood be the leading scorer in year one, depending on who else joins the team later on. Eberle, Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi, and Jared McCann have all proven that they can put the puck in the back of the net. They weren’t going to get elite scoring talent in the expansion draft, but this is an encouraging start to the team’s top-six.

There’s still a lot to come with this roster, but the fact is there is a real team, with real players, and real jerseys(!). The Kraken have taken a major step into the NHL, and despite some questions floating around some of these selections, this is an exciting and unforgettable time for the city of Seattle.

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Can the Kraken exploit the expansion draft as much as Vegas did?

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Vegas Golden Knights had arguably the most successful inaugural season in NHL history, finishing atop the Pacific division and making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Seattle Kraken will be entering the league just four years after that historic run, and despite how difficult it is to see that kind of immediate success in an expansion team, we’ll surely see Seattle measured against Vegas at every turn.

There is one big thing that the Kraken have going for them in regards to seeing success in that first year: they’ll have the same expansion draft rules that Vegas used to acquire future franchise stars like William Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury. Here’s a brief overview of those rules:

  • Seattle will select one player from each team, excluding Vegas, for a total of 30 players

  • Each team will have the option to protect either:

    • Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or

    • Eight skaters of any position and one goalie

  • First and second year players cannot be selected and do not count against protection limits

  • Players with no-trade clauses must be protected unless the player chooses to waive the clause

There are a few more rules to it but that’s the real meat of it all.

The big question now is whether or not Seattle can use their leverage in the expansion draft to extract the amount of talent and draft picks through trades that Vegas was able to get in 2017. Vegas made 10 trades on expansion draft day in exchange for selecting specific players and laying off of players that teams couldn’t fit on their protected lists but really didn’t want to lose. Here’s a quick rundown of what they acquired that day:


vegas trades.png

A quick example of why teams were willing to give up picks and players in exchange for basically nothing: The Columbus Blue Jackets didn’t have enough space on their protected list to keep Vegas away from a couple of promising 22-year olds in forward Josh Anderson and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. In order to keep the Knights away, they sent over a first and a second round pick in exchange for Vegas avoiding Anderson and Korpisalo in the draft and instead taking William Karlsson.

This is the type of trade people point to when they suggest that teams won’t want to make trades with Seattle prior to the expansion draft. Karlsson went on to score a career-high 43 goals the following year with Vegas, and remains the franchise’s all-time leading goal scorer through their third season. Jarmo Kekäläinen, the Blue Jackets general manager, is still there, and it seems safe to assume he won’t want to get burned like that a second time.

However, I’ve got two reasons to counter the idea that most of the league will just sit back and let a player go without making a trade. Let’s talk about the more straightforward reason first.

You might hear plenty about how Columbus, New York, or Pittsburgh got taken by Vegas because they lost draft picks and a good player, when they could’ve just lost a good player. But what about some of those other trades?

Buffalo managed to lose only a 6th round pick to keep the Knights away from young unprotected goaltender Linus Ullmark. Winnipeg dropped 11 spots in the draft and gave up a future third round pick, but they were able to steer the Knights to Chris Thorburn, a pending free agent that the Jets were about to let go anyway. Kevin Cheveldayoff remains the Jets’ general manager, and if he’s happy with how his trade worked out last time there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. Kevyn Adams, the Sabres’ current GM, was a member of that front office in 2017 as well. He shouldn’t have any bad memories about that expansion day trade.

We often remember the trades that went wildly wrong for one side, but in turn we tend to forget that many of the trades made that day were beneficial for both Vegas and the team that traded with them. No reason to think they won’t try that again with Seattle next year.

And now for reason number two, which some might find less agreeable.

You might think the people in charge would learn and grow from past experiences, but there is mounting evidence to the contrary. For example, the NHL basically fires and rehires the same 31 coaches each year despite the fact that they were probably fired for not being very good. In 2013 the Rangers and Canucks actually swapped fired head coaches John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault. Even the Blue Jackets’ GM has looked back at his trade in 2017 and said he probably couldn’t have done anything different.

Never underestimate a general manager’s ability to believe he knows more than the person sitting across from him.

Seattle gets to start discussing trades with the other 31 teams once their final expansion fee payment goes through, which is expected in March of next year. It’s safe to assume any trades will be kept quiet until the day of the expansion draft, as that’s what happened with Vegas in 2017. Which gives us about 11 months to guess at what might happen when the day finally arrives.

Will the Kraken come away with a bounty of picks and players via trade, or will teams be resistant after seeing the way Vegas was able to swindle everyone out of great players? The answer likely lies, as with most things, somewhere in the middle. But there’s a good chance that it’s closer to the former than you might guess.

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Kraken the formula

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

Now that Seattle has announced our new team name, jersey, colors, and arena, what’s next? Players. As of now, we don’t know what players will be protected by their teams, but there are plenty of players who will have free agent status during the 2021 NHL draft. Out of our 30 picks, 10 of them can be free agents, so who doesn’t like to speculate, right? Club-optioned free agents will play a huge role in building the Seattle Kraken’s inaugural team, so let’s take a look at some of the best picks.

Goalie:

There are some big names in the goalie world who will be free agents, including Henrik Lundqvist (NYR), Pekka Rinne (NSH), and Tuukka Rask (BOS). Rask would be a hands down pick, but odds are Boston will want to keep their star goalie by re-signing him. Depending on Seattle’s spending cap, my picks would be Frederik Andersen (TOR) or Anthony Stolarz (ANA). With his seven years of NHL experience and career save percentage (SV%) at .917, Andersen would be a strong choice between the pipes. Alas, this is probably a dream pick as he is Toronto’s starting goalie. Our only chance would be if Toronto wants to protect star players like Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, or their up-and-coming back-up goalie Jack Campbell. A less expensive, and more realistic, choice would be Anaheim’s farm team goalie, Anthony Stolarz. As we learned with the Matt Murray/Marc-Andre Fleury change for Pittsburgh, sometimes young skills will push out the older star player. Stolarz hasn’t had much experience in the majors but at 6’6”, 230 lbs with a .910 SV%, he could be the wall that Seattle needs.

Right Wing:

Now I know I’m showcasing a lot of former Anaheim players, but this one is too hard to pass up. The 5’11”, 185 lb, tiny-but-mighty force that is, Kyle Palmieri (NJD). In his 10-year, 561 game career, Palmieri has accumulated 338 points. He could be a strong leader as well considering his time and knowledge in the league. With 280 blocks and 785 hits, Palmieri could bring the hurt to Seattle.

Left Wing:

One of the biggest left wingers in the league, Alex Ovechkin (WAS), will be a free agent next year, but I highly doubt the Capitals will give up their captain and the 2004 first overall pick. I’m sorry to go back to former ANA players again, but if Andrew Cogliano (DAL) isn’t re-signed and protected, he should be our pick. He started his 13-year career in 2007-08, finishing that season with a nomination for the Calder Trophy. Some will argue that he’s too seasoned and slowing down, but I believe he could write a new story in Seattle, possibly finishing his career with an anchor on his shoulder. While he isn’t the biggest point leader (career: 399 PTS), his strengths are shown through his 1,042 hits in 1,012 games. Not to mention his outstanding feat of 890 consecutive games (including playoff games), spanning from his first NHL game to a somewhat controversial hit causing him to receive a two-game suspension, putting to end his nickname, “Iron Man”.

Center:

Okay, I won’t include a former Anaheim Duck this time. Although, I will mention that ANA’s current captain Ryan Getzlaf will be available, but he’s slowed down significantly over the years so if ANA doesn’t protect him, it wouldn’t be in our best interests to pick him up. After talking about all of these veteran players I want to take a risk and suggest a rookie for a possible center. Joseph Gambardella (EDM) has only played one year but appears to be a promising player. In 15 games, he has 3 points, 14 hits, and 5 takeaways in a total of 122 minutes on ice. It would be a gamble, but after reviewing his MIC’D up highlights from the Young Stars Classic in 2017, he sounds like a born leader and strong center.

Defense:

Defenders are harder to rank because some of them are big scorers and some are bigger hit/blockers. A good option for a power blocker with free agent status would be veteran player Jordie Benn (VAN). In 517 games within his nine-year career, he’s accumulated 117 points and 856 blocks, averaging around almost 2 blocks per game. Benn is 33-years-old, so if Seattle wanted a younger player to grow with the team a bit, I would opt for Jamie Oleksiak (DAL). Oleksiak has proven himself in his 313 games by throwing down 354 blocks and a whopping 697 hits. He lacks in scoring ability, but not every player can be a point leader.

It’s still very early in the process to make any “perfect” picks, but this gives us the chance as fans to speculate wildly. I can’t wait to see how our new team progresses in the next year, let’s “Dive in” Seattle!

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