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The Expansion Draft: First Impressions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

Ron Francis took the stage on Wednesday evening with his polo shirt unbuttoned and his gold chain hanging out, oozing the confidence and weariness of a man that’s been up for three days straight plotting the best methods to steal a player from every team in the NHL. How did he and his staff do in that regard is a difficult question to answer, so today I’ll simply gather some thoughts on various aspects of the selections as we try to make sense of the team-building philosophy the Kraken have now put forth.

-Cap space is every bit as valuable to this team as anyone predicted. Ignoring all your mock expansion drafts that saw Seattle hitting $70 million in salary from the jump, Seattle decided that they would not take on any contracts that would give them salary cap issues. In fact, they barely managed to reach the minimum required cap space in the expansion rules ($48.9M). After the Jamie Oleksiak, Chris Driedger, and Adam Larsson signings, CapFriendly projects the current roster to cost $52.5M. That leaves them with just shy of $29M in cap space and $8M below the NHL’s salary cap floor. Not only does this mean they have the ability to be aggressive in free agency, they’re actually required to do something in order to reach that cap floor.

-The biggest contract they took on was Mark Giordano’s $6.75M deal with just one year left on it. Yanni Gourde and Jordan Eberle are the only other players making more than $5M per year. So while we can expect the team to be active when free agency opens up on July 28th, don’t go thinking just yet that they’ll open the pocket book for an albatross contract for someone like Gabriel Landeskog. I’m expecting more mid-level free agents. They were reportedly interested in Jaden Schwartz in the two-day negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, and have been in contact with Zach Hyman’s camp as well. [UPDATE: Hyman has reportedly reached a deal with the Edmonton Oilers for 7-8 years, $5M AAV] Evolving Hockey projects Schwartz to get a 3-year, $4.75M AAV deal, while Hyman is projected to get a 4-year, $5.3M deal. Both would stay in the realm of the contracts the Kraken have taken on (and handed out) in regards to both value and term.

-They’re big. Half of the Kraken’s 12 selections on defense are at least 6’3”, with Jamie Oleksiak leading the way at 6’7”. How important is size, especially among defenders? That’s debatable, but it is always fun to see a big guy manning the blue line.

-Speaking of fun blue lines, how cool is it that brothers Cale and Haydn Fleury both got selected? The two have not played on a team together since they were five and three years old, and here they are with a chance to prove themselves at the highest level on a brand new hockey team.

“He Facetimed me this morning….and he instantly called my parents and brought them into the call. And it was a really special day. My mom, I think, was crying. I don’t know; I couldn’t see her. But it was a really exciting day. And I just couldn’t be more proud of him. And just ready for him to be my teammate.”

Be still, my heart.

-Mark Giordano was there on the stage in Seattle. With only one year left on his deal and still a productive defender at age 37, Giordano could be a prime trade candidate for the Kraken either early this offseason or even at the trade deadline this coming year, but bringing him out in a Kraken sweater at the end of the evening seems to indicate that Seattle would prefer to keep him around all year. Maybe even longer.

-There will likely be more of a goalie tandem than a starter and backup situation this year. Chris Driedger and Vitek Vanecek have started a mere 70 games combined in their careers. Both netminders played unexpectedly well this past season, so it appears the hope is that they both continue to build on solid performances as they get more starts in net with this new team. Joey Daccord, the 24-year old selection from the Ottawa Senators, has even less experience and will be the goalie sent to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers. It’s an inexperienced, high-upside core of goaltenders coming to Seattle.

-Where were all the side deals? Some people posited that teams would learn from the Vegas expansion and be reluctant to make trades with Seattle, and it appears they were correct. There have been zero reported side deals made during the expansion process, and very few rumors of trades still to be made involving recently selected players. Ron Francis all but confirmed the suspicions after the show.

“This was going to be so much different than what Vegas did. Vegas did a good job taking advantage of the rules and everyone’s lack of experience…They had a lot more time to prepare for us. Last time GMs were more willing to overpay to protect certain assets. This time they learned from that and they weren’t willing to make the mistakes they made last time.”

It appears that in the game of chicken between Francis and every other GM in the league, nobody blinked, and Seattle simply ended up grabbing their best player available at each stop.

-What are those choices from Philadelphia, LA, and Columbus? Max Domi wouldn’t have been as good of a pick as people might’ve thought, with one year left on his deal and currently dealing with an injury to go alongside a career-worst year with just 24 points in 54 games, but why Gavin Bayreuther over the more proven Dean Kukan, who is only one year older? In Philadelphia it’s fairly easy to get on board with avoiding the James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek contracts, but what is it about Carsen Twarynksi that makes him more attractive than Robert Hägg or even Connor Bunnaman? And as far as LA goes, I know they didn’t have a lot of good looking options, but most of them looked better than Kurtis MacDermid.

-Jordan Eberle was there, in a jersey! He looked fantastic (and short compared to the rest of the guys there) and in all likelihood be the leading scorer in year one, depending on who else joins the team later on. Eberle, Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi, and Jared McCann have all proven that they can put the puck in the back of the net. They weren’t going to get elite scoring talent in the expansion draft, but this is an encouraging start to the team’s top-six.

There’s still a lot to come with this roster, but the fact is there is a real team, with real players, and real jerseys(!). The Kraken have taken a major step into the NHL, and despite some questions floating around some of these selections, this is an exciting and unforgettable time for the city of Seattle.

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Dan’s Seattle Kraken Expansion Mock Draft

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The protected lists for all 30 (curse you Vegas) NHL clubs have been released to the league and to the public, and there are more than a few surprises. It appears the Kraken could build a legitimately good team from the jump, so long as they’re willing to take on a few medium-to-large contracts. Of course, some of the surprising names left available could be protected in a side deal that we won’t hear about until Wednesday, but for now, we’re working with what we’ve got.

Here’s one possible expansion roster for the Seattle Kraken based on the actual protected lists released by the 30 NHL teams. All cap info and graphics come from Cap Friendly’s own Seattle expansion tool, be sure to check it out over these next couple days until the team is official.

Forwards: 17
Defense: 10
Goalies: 3
2021-2022 contracts: 25
Cap hit: $77.1M

Some notes:

-This cap charge is much higher than what the Kraken want to go into the year with, but the idea here is to immediately trade away a few of these players for more draft picks and prospects. Vegas loaded up on defenders in the expansion draft and flipped a few of them within a day. Mark Giordano is a prime candidate for this, along with potentially a Jordan Eberle or Max Domi.

-Vladimir Tarasenko is too good to pass up. It’s difficult to find a 40-goal scorer anywhere, let alone in an expansion draft. His $7.5M cap hit is high but worth it, assuming he’s healthy and ready to go this season

-Relatedly, James van Riemsdyk gets left off this list because he’s got nearly the same cap charge as Tarasenko with about half the goal-scoring upside. We’ll take a chance with Hakstol’s former player Shayne Gostisbehere instead.

-There are so many good options available from Tampa. Ondrej Palat, Alex Kilorn, and Tyler Johnson would all be fine choices, but Gourde plays center more regularly and the center position is hard to come by. He’s also just really damn good.

-Jared McCann was just picked up by Toronto in a trade with Pittsburgh. He’s adored by the analytics crowd and has some of the best rate stats in the league. There could be a side deal here, assuming the Leafs don’t want to lose a guy they just swapped a prospect and a pick for.

-Haydn Fleury was a former Ron Francis pick in Carolina. A reunion of sorts seems very possible

-Chris Driedger has already been reported as a likely selection from the Panthers. Vita Vanecek came out of nowhere last year and proved to be an NHL-caliber goaltender, so they’ll compete for the starting job in year one.

-Washington also left defenseman Justin Schultz available. He could easily be a target, in which case we’ll need to find another goaltender somewhere, perhaps Braden Holtby from Vancouver

As of now, it appears the Kraken will have a chance to ice a really competitive team from the jump this October. Or at the very least, they should clean up in those expansion side deals that Vegas has been praised for these past four years. We’ll find out for sure on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Last-minute trades impact the Kraken’s expansion decisions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

There was a flurry of trades in the NHL on Saturday morning ahead of the roster freeze and the deadline for team protected lists heading into the week of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. Many of them had major implications for what was expected regarding the players available to Seattle on Wednesday. Here’s a rundown of what trades happened and how they will affect the Kraken’s initial roster.

THE TRADE

Dallas trades center Jason Dickinson to Vancouver for a 2021 3rd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

With the news that goaltender Ben Bishop would waive his no-move clause last week in order to protect fellow goaltender Anton Khudobin, Dickinson became the frontrunner to be picked by Seattle. He’ll be on the protection list in Vancouver, bumping someone like Matthew Highmore off, while the options from the Stars look much more slim.

THE TRADE

Arizona trades goaltender Adin Hill to San Jose for goaltender Josef Korenar and a 2022 2nd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

Hill looked like the default pick for Seattle on a very meh Coyotes team. Now it looks more likely Seattle takes a forward in Johan Larsson or Christian Fischer, or perhaps makes a side deal to take on the exorbitant contract of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who carries an $8.25M cap hit through 2027.

THE TRADE

Pittsburgh trades left winger Jared McCann to Toronto for center Filip Hållander and a 2023 7th round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

McCann looked like the clear choice from Pittsburgh last week after reports surfaced that the Penguins would protect Brandon Tanev over McCann, but that’s out the window now. Seattle will likely look at forward Zach Aston-Reese or a defenseman like Marcus Pettersson or Mike Matheson from Pittsburgh now.

This one also has significant implications in Toronto, who were speculated to protect four forwards and four defensemen, but will now have to use the 7F/3D approach to protect McCann. That should leave someone like Justin Holl available on the blue line for the Kraken.

THE TRADE

Nashville acquires Cody Glass and Philippe Myers from Philadelphia & Vegas

Philadelphia acquires Ryan Ellis from Nashville

Vegas acquires Nolan Patrick from Philadelphia

THE IMPLICATIONS

With Nolan Patrick gone, the Flyers are now projected to protect winger James van Riemsdyk. That leaves Jacob Voracek and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel as the potential forward picks from the Flyers and Shayne Gostisbehere as an available defender.

Nashville now has Cody Glass, who is exempt from the expansion draft, and doesn’t have to protect Ryan Ellis. They could potentially now protect popular mock draft choice Calle Järnkrok.

Vegas gets Nolan Patrick, who by virtue of playing for Vegas, is now exempt from the expansion draft.

THE TRADE

The New York Islanders trade two 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick to Arizona in exchange for Arizona taking on Andrew Ladd and his near $5M cap hit.

THE IMPLICATIONS

The Islanders are in a tough cap situation right now, with $12.9M in projected cap space and both Anthony Beuvillier and Adam Pelech still to be signed. This relieves some of their cap issues, which could lessen the impact of a side deal with Seattle to take on a big contract in exchange for draft picks or prospects.

Perhaps the most impactful piece of news from an eventful day was the trade that did not happen. The St. Louis Blues were either unable or unwilling to move Vladimir Tarasenko before the noon roster freeze. Now it appears that the Blues are willing to let him head to Seattle for potentially no return.

Tarasenko has only appeared in 34 games in the past two years, but scored at least 30 goals in the five prior seasons. He would immediately be the Kraken’s top goal scorer. His $7.5M cap hit is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s worth the money if he is healthy.

Rosters are now frozen, which means no more trades or signings can happen until after the expansion draft. Protected lists will be distributed on Sunday morning at 7am and from that point on it will be nothing but real Kraken news until the final expansion roster is released on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Three trade candidates for the Kraken ahead of the expansion draft

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The trade deadline has passed and the 2021 NHL season is winding down, which means rosters are all but set for the Seattle expansion draft on July 21. With projected protection lists rolling in at a steady pace now, hockey fans and analysts are getting a better idea of who might be available for the Kraken when the day arrives. A quick refresher on how the expansion draft works:

  • Seattle will select one player from each team, excluding Vegas, for a total of 30 players
  • Each team will have the option to protect either:
    • Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (7F/3D), or
    • Eight skaters of any position and one goalie
  • First and second year players cannot be selected and do not count against protection limits
  • Players with no-movement clauses must be protected unless the player chooses to waive the clause

In 2017, Vegas was able to leverage the expansion draft to pull extra players and draft capital from several teams that felt like they needed to protect more than they were allowed. Many are speculating that Seattle will not be able to snag the haul that Vegas was able to, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any trades at all on expansion day. Here are three of the most likely candidates that could make a side deal with the Kraken in order to keep their NHL rosters more intact.

MINNESOTA WILD

The Wild have a no-move clause problem. Any player with a full no-move clause in their contract is required to be on a team’s protected list. There are 52 players with no-movement clauses, five of which are on the Minnesota Wild, and three of which are defensemen. If the Wild roll with the 7F/3D protected list, their choice has already been made in regards to which defensemen will be exposed and which will be protected, and Matt Dumba becomes the odd-man out.

Dumba played the second-most minutes per game at even strength last year among Wild defensemen. Per evolving-hockey.com, Dumba ranked 35th out of 123 defensemen with at least 700 minutes played in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). His 53.1% xGF% mark just means that while he was on the ice, the Wild controlled 53.1% of the scoring opportunities in a given game. He could legitimately be a top-pair defenseman in the NHL.

 

Meanwhile, should the Wild choose to protect 4 defensemen, they’ll be forced to leave someone like Jordan Greenway available to Seattle. Greenway is a former 2nd-round pick who has slowly earned more ice time with each passing year. He had a career-high 32 points this season in 56 games, improving his points per game for the second consecutive season.

Who will Minnesota allow to leave for nothing, a defensemen that could play on their top pairing or a forward with top-6 potential? Neither has to sound particularly appealing for a Wild team that made a surprise run into the playoffs this season, competing with the known-contenders that are the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche.

Minnesota currently has two first round picks this year after acquiring Pittsburgh’s pick for Jason Zucker last year, which would lessen the blow of an expansion day trade. But it’s also worth noting that they’re one of the teams considered to have been swindled by Vegas the last time around, when they gave up Alex Tuch, a core Vegas starting forward, in order to keep the Golden Knights away from…Matt Dumba. This will be a real test of whether or not current general manager Bill Guerin learned from his predecessor Chuck Fletcher in regards to making a side deal during the expansion draft.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

Kraken general manager and former Carolina Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis has an opportunity to grab a quality NHL player from his former team this year. The Hurricanes face a similar problem as the Wild, in that they have too many good defensemen to protect. But Carolina has the luxury of fewer no-movement clauses and thus more flexibility when it comes to their protection list.

As of now, top-defenseman Dougie Hamilton is still set to hit unrestricted free agency, where Evolving Hockey projects him to command nearly $9M per year.

Losing Hamilton in free agency still leaves the Hurricanes with a solid top-4 defensive core of Jacob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, and Jake Bean. One of those names will have to be available to Seattle (assuming the 7F/3D protected list) and most projections see rookie Jake Bean as the odd man out.

Bean was the 12th overall pick by none other than Ron Francis in 2016. This past year was his first full season on the NHL squad. His numbers are somewhat average by most public models, but it’s tough to expect much more than that in a player’s first year in the NHL.

blue = good; red = bad

There’s a good chance the Hurricanes lose Dougie Hamilton this offseason, so losing Bean as well would mean the Hurricanes are out two key pieces of their defense this offseason with no return.

They could opt to protect eight skaters (4F/4D), but that would leave Vincent Trochek exposed after a season in which his points per 60 minutes saw nearly a 50% increase from his career average, going from 2.1 to 3.0. Carolina general manager Don Waddell should at least give his former colleague a call to see what they can work out. After all, Ron Francis himself made a deal with Vegas in 2017 that worked out pretty good for Carolina during their expansion draft. He traded a 5th round pick in exchange for Vegas taking pending unrestricted free agent Connor Brickley, who split time between the AHL and NHL over the next two years and most recently played in the Austrian Hockey League.

COLORADO AVALANCHE

The Avalanche, despite their second-round playoff exit, were one of the best teams in the NHL this year. Their roster is loaded with talent on both offense and defense, which means the Kraken are going to get a good player here.

An expansion day trade here wouldn’t necessarily be about Colorado trying to keep a great roster intact, however. This one comes down to money.

Right now, Colorado has about $25M in cap space for next season, which leaves them in better shape than most teams. The problem is that they still have to re-sign their captain Gabriel Landeskog, superstar 22-year old defenseman Cale Makar, and Vezina Trophy finalist Philipp Grubauer. Landeskog and Makar project to eat up as much as $19M alone per Evolving Hockey, and Grubauer might be the best free agent goalie on the market this year.

 

The key to navigating this cap crunch for Colorado comes from defenseman Erik Johnson.

Johnson was a staple on the Avalanche blue line before Makar, Samuel Girard, and Devon Toews joined the team. But at 32 years old, with nagging injuries that kept him out of all but four games in 2021, it seems as though he’s lost his spot in the starting lineup. Reports are already surfacing that he will waive his no-movement clause, paving the way for him to be available to the Kraken in the expansion draft. But Seattle might need some motivation to take on a 32-year old, oft-injured defenseman with a $6M cap hit for the next two seasons. Colorado has already traded away their 2nd-round picks in 2021 and 2022, but still has their 1st-rounders to offer Seattle if they want to ensure they can make some extra room to keep their star players.

Plenty of teams may still feel that it’s better to decline any calls from Ron Francis and just take the loss of a single player in the expansion draft. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t still a few that will feel the need to make some side deals in order to keep a contending roster together for one more run at a Stanley Cup. Let’s hope they can find some common ground and get the Kraken off on the right foot this October.

Statistics from Evolving Hockey & Hockey Reference
Salary information from Cap Friendly

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Can the Kraken exploit the expansion draft as much as Vegas did?

by Kevin Nesgoda
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Vegas Golden Knights had arguably the most successful inaugural season in NHL history, finishing atop the Pacific division and making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Seattle Kraken will be entering the league just four years after that historic run, and despite how difficult it is to see that kind of immediate success in an expansion team, we’ll surely see Seattle measured against Vegas at every turn.

There is one big thing that the Kraken have going for them in regards to seeing success in that first year: they’ll have the same expansion draft rules that Vegas used to acquire future franchise stars like William Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury. Here’s a brief overview of those rules:

  • Seattle will select one player from each team, excluding Vegas, for a total of 30 players

  • Each team will have the option to protect either:

    • Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or

    • Eight skaters of any position and one goalie

  • First and second year players cannot be selected and do not count against protection limits

  • Players with no-trade clauses must be protected unless the player chooses to waive the clause

There are a few more rules to it but that’s the real meat of it all.

The big question now is whether or not Seattle can use their leverage in the expansion draft to extract the amount of talent and draft picks through trades that Vegas was able to get in 2017. Vegas made 10 trades on expansion draft day in exchange for selecting specific players and laying off of players that teams couldn’t fit on their protected lists but really didn’t want to lose. Here’s a quick rundown of what they acquired that day:


vegas trades.png

A quick example of why teams were willing to give up picks and players in exchange for basically nothing: The Columbus Blue Jackets didn’t have enough space on their protected list to keep Vegas away from a couple of promising 22-year olds in forward Josh Anderson and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. In order to keep the Knights away, they sent over a first and a second round pick in exchange for Vegas avoiding Anderson and Korpisalo in the draft and instead taking William Karlsson.

This is the type of trade people point to when they suggest that teams won’t want to make trades with Seattle prior to the expansion draft. Karlsson went on to score a career-high 43 goals the following year with Vegas, and remains the franchise’s all-time leading goal scorer through their third season. Jarmo Kekäläinen, the Blue Jackets general manager, is still there, and it seems safe to assume he won’t want to get burned like that a second time.

However, I’ve got two reasons to counter the idea that most of the league will just sit back and let a player go without making a trade. Let’s talk about the more straightforward reason first.

You might hear plenty about how Columbus, New York, or Pittsburgh got taken by Vegas because they lost draft picks and a good player, when they could’ve just lost a good player. But what about some of those other trades?

Buffalo managed to lose only a 6th round pick to keep the Knights away from young unprotected goaltender Linus Ullmark. Winnipeg dropped 11 spots in the draft and gave up a future third round pick, but they were able to steer the Knights to Chris Thorburn, a pending free agent that the Jets were about to let go anyway. Kevin Cheveldayoff remains the Jets’ general manager, and if he’s happy with how his trade worked out last time there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. Kevyn Adams, the Sabres’ current GM, was a member of that front office in 2017 as well. He shouldn’t have any bad memories about that expansion day trade.

We often remember the trades that went wildly wrong for one side, but in turn we tend to forget that many of the trades made that day were beneficial for both Vegas and the team that traded with them. No reason to think they won’t try that again with Seattle next year.

And now for reason number two, which some might find less agreeable.

You might think the people in charge would learn and grow from past experiences, but there is mounting evidence to the contrary. For example, the NHL basically fires and rehires the same 31 coaches each year despite the fact that they were probably fired for not being very good. In 2013 the Rangers and Canucks actually swapped fired head coaches John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault. Even the Blue Jackets’ GM has looked back at his trade in 2017 and said he probably couldn’t have done anything different.

Never underestimate a general manager’s ability to believe he knows more than the person sitting across from him.

Seattle gets to start discussing trades with the other 31 teams once their final expansion fee payment goes through, which is expected in March of next year. It’s safe to assume any trades will be kept quiet until the day of the expansion draft, as that’s what happened with Vegas in 2017. Which gives us about 11 months to guess at what might happen when the day finally arrives.

Will the Kraken come away with a bounty of picks and players via trade, or will teams be resistant after seeing the way Vegas was able to swindle everyone out of great players? The answer likely lies, as with most things, somewhere in the middle. But there’s a good chance that it’s closer to the former than you might guess.

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