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claudio bravo

pablo-bonilla-stability
Portland Timbers

Opinion: Timbers need stability after latest loss

by Charlie Folkestad April 7, 2022
written by Charlie Folkestad

The Portland Timbers fell to the Los Angeles Galaxy 3-1 Sunday afternoon in Providence Park.

This result was unacceptable on many levels to Timbers fans, who have dealt with waves of club scandals over the past few seasons. Even national anthem singer Madison Stanley voiced her opinion against the club’s recent actions.

Off-field frustrations can often boil over to overly-harsh on-field criticisms. Some fans are more concerned with the community aspect the Timbers provide than the on-field results. Others couldn’t care less and are purely concerned with goals in nets and points on the table.

But absolutely no one is happy when the team is losing.

Portland now have six points from six matches in 2022. Their undefeated home streak since October 20th, 2021 officially came to an end Sunday, though losing MLS Cup to NYCFC on penalties hardly felt like a draw.

Excuses

Let’s get this out of the way. The Timbers have a TON of injuries. No single combination of this back line has played consecutive full 90s together this season.

The two starting center backs, Dario Zuparic and Larrys Mabiala, both began the season injured. Only the former has returned. Pablo Bonilla just got back into the squad after a visa issue.

Sebastian Blanco, Portland’s best player, is not fit. He made his first start last weekend, but was taken off after 73 minutes with a planned substitution. The game changes when he’s on thew pitch, and he’s only been there about a third of the time this season.

Eryk Williamson just got back from injury. He hasn’t fully recovered from a torn ACL last year.

Felipe Mora, Portland’s leading goal scorer last season, has not played a single minute yet. Portland’s third-string striker, Tega Ikoba, hasn’t either.

There are dark clouds hanging over the organization. None of the current players or coaches are at fault for that.

That being said, goals drive progress.

Necessary improvements

Bluntly, two of Portland’s Designated Players are underperforming, while the other one is injured.

There’s an argument to be made that Yimmi Chara is performing at a DP-level this season, but not in the last few weeks. Other than his bicycle kicks (which, yes, we do need to acknowledge and appreciate), Yimmi only makes the easy pass in the final third. He’s not going to break a team down like Blanco can.

I’ve defended Jaroslaw Niezgoda in the past, especially during his first season when he had an insanely good scoring rate (1.04 per 90). But he hasn’t reached that level since tearing his ACL in November of that 2020 season.

He has the skill to do so, too. That amazing flick in Dallas showed us his quality. But we need to see it on the pitch, otherwise he’s never winning the starting spot over Felipe Mora.

I tend to think Gio knows what he’s doing tactically, but I still don’t understand dragging “Jaro” out wide. I guess he created the chance that led to a penalty against Orlando from the wing, but still. It’s weird.

Aljaz Ivacic hasn’t been good enough, either. We knew he wasn’t going to be as good as Steve Clark, and I still commend the club’s decision not to splash money for an aging goalkeeper, but Ivacic needs to be better. His PSxG-GA number (+0.02, 52nd percentile in MLS) is bang-average. I’ll stop short of blaming him for any of the Timbers’ problems (we’ll get to the back line in a second) but he can certainly be part of the solution.

Dairon Asprilla reached an elite level last season, but he’s been nearly invisible since scoring in week one. He’s another guy who could step up.

Alright, time for the defense discussion. Portland brought in both Claudio Bravo and Josecarlos Van Rankin prior to the 2021 season. They were supposed to hold down starting spots with consistent performances, and did for much of last season.

But 2022 has been a disaster for both of them. Each have a red card and have struggled to do what their position says — DEFEND!

Moreover, the replacement options have also been rough. Pablo Bonilla’s sending off may not have been deserved, but it wasn’t like he was having a great match anyway. Justin Rasmussen is their only other fullback option, and he’s a rookie. He replaced Bonilla at right back despite being left-footed.

Both Bravo and Van Rankin have the ability to play well. We saw it last year when Portland made MLS Cup. (Bravo in particular has some great attacking movements.) But it’s time for them to start doing it, because it hasn’t been here yet this season.

How can the Timbers change?

(Despite the obvious changes that could but won’t occur at the highest level of the club, of course.)

Have the players play better. I have full confidence in Gio Savarese. That’s the good news. These matches barely matter if the Timbers can get hot going into the playoffs, which his Portland teams do more often than not.

This Saturday’s match in British Columbia is a chance to turn things around. Vancouver have four points from five matches. It’s a rivalry. Both teams are in really bad spots despite making big signings in recent years.

I would love to see Gio shake up the starting XI and remind usual starters that they need to perform better. These are the types of matches that can either bury a team mentally or spark better performances.

Point of clarity

Before this rant is over, I’d like to make just one more point: There seems to be a disconnect in discourse which conflates the “Timbers Army” and 107IST.

As it’s broadly understood, the Timbers Army is the people occupying sections of general admission seats in Providence Park. The Timbers Army waves flags and chants, but 107IST makes the decisions for the Timbers Army. Personally, I consider myself a member of both. As of this year, I’ve paid my dues to 107IST and can join in on meetings should I choose to.

There’s obviously a ton of crossover between people sitting in GA and 107IST, but the difference was apparent during the “five minutes of silence” against Orlando City. Prior to the match, 107IST sent out an email detailing the planned demonstration. But many fans sitting in the TA section didn’t know about it, and there was understandable confusion.

I don’t see a clear solution to this. Some fans don’t want to pay the yearly 107IST fee to be part of the more “official” fan club — constantly purchasing tickets is enough of a financial barrier. I was also in this boat until last December.

But there is something to be said about everyone in the section being on the same page. It makes demonstrations more effective and creates a better community. Again, I don’t see a simple solution to this tension.

What I can say, though, is that protecting your own “relevance” as a fan is never worth alienating people. The TA has had its share of gatekeeping issues in the past, and they do no good for anyone. We all go to the stadium for the same reason: to watch the Timbers play soccer.

Thank you for reading this rant. If you’d like more rants, check out the Double Post Podcast, which I run with my friend Reece. We post weekly during the season.

April 7, 2022 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers announce initial roster updates

by Charlie Folkestad December 13, 2021
written by Charlie Folkestad

Major League Soccer never stops, even right after the MLS Cup final. The Expansion Draft will take place Tuesday, Dec. 14th and free agency opens Wednesday, Dec. 15th.

The Timbers announced a bevy of roster decisions Monday, including the list of unprotected players for tomorrow’s Expansion Draft.

No matter how you feel about general manager Gavin Wilkinson and owner Merritt Paulson, they have a lot of important decisions to make in the coming weeks.

Who’s gone?

Jorge Gonzalez, Ismaila Jome, Manny Perez, and Renzo Zambrano are all not re-signing. We know they’re gone. Gonzalez and Perez never saw action for the first team and Jome barely did. All four of these guys are unprotected for Charlotte FC’s expansion draft.

Who’s staying?

Portland left 10 of its 21 players on the current roster (so, not including the four names above) unprotected. The 11 protected players which Portland will definitely have next season are:

  • Goalkeepers – Hunter Sulte
  • Defenders – Dario Župarić, Bill Tuiloma, Claudio Bravo
  • Midfielders – Blake Bodily, Diego Chará, Yimmi Chará, Marvin Loría, Santiago Moreno, Cristhian Paredes, Eryk Williamson, Dairon Asprilla
  • Forwards – Felipe Mora, Jarosław Niezgoda

Who’s in limbo?

The ones we don’t know about yet:

  • Goalkeepers – Steve Clark, Jeff Attinella, Aljaz Ivacic
  • Defenders – Larrys Mabiala, Zac McGraw, Josecarlos Van Rankin, Pablo Bonilla
  • Midfielders – Sebastian Blanco, Diego Valeri, Andy Polo, George Fochive
  • Forwards – N/A

The Timbers are looking to re-sign Sebastian Blanco, Steve Clark, Aljaz Ivacic, and Josecarlos Van Rankin. I’d be shocked if Blanco didn’t re-sign. Not so sure about the other three. Briefly, here’s why:

  • Van Rankin was on loan from Chivas Guadalajara this season. There have been rumors of him both re-signing in Portland and re-joining Chivas. I could see this one going either way.
  • Clark is 35. He’s had some great moments for Portland, but he’s certainly more replaceable because of his age.
  • Ivacic has barely played for the Timbers. He conceded 12 goals in four starts this season and is clearly the third-best Portland ‘keeper when healthy. The Timbers also have both Hunter Sulte and Jeff Attinella still under contract. I’d say Ivacic re-signing is unlikely.

What should the priorities be?

Priority #1 for Gavin Wilkinson has to be to re-sign Sebastián Blanco. This should be obvious. Getting him on a non-Designated Player deal (like Valeri signed a few years ago) would be ideal, but might not be feasible. Either way, keep him in the club.

Diego Valeri’s future might not affect the team on the field much, but it’s crucial for fan buy-in (which has obviously been waning lately).

Beyond that, decisions on Van Rankin and Clark will be most important. If those two are gone, that’s two starting spots to fill. I doubt Charlotte takes anyone from Portland tomorrow.

Portland are not one of the top-five spenders in MLS, but they are consistently near the top. The front office has showed its willingness to spend in the right places and take full advantage of MLS’ wonky roster rules (using the U-22 initiative to sign Moreno, for example).

We’ll see how they approach a pivotal offseason.

December 13, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Expectations & Predictions for Portland’s second leg against CD Marathón

by Kevin Nesgoda April 13, 2021
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Portland Timbers will face CD Marathón in Providence Park at 5pm PT this evening for the second leg of their Concacaf Champions League Round of 16 clash versus CD Marathón of Honduras. Portland secured a 2-2 draw in the previous fixture.


Photo via Portland Timbers (used with permission)

Photo via Portland Timbers (used with permission)

The Timbers left San Pedro Sula one week ago with two away goals and plenty of confidence. Despite Honduran goals that leveled the tie not once but twice, Portland looked like the better team throughout. In a more familiar setting (and, more importantly, a more forgiving pitch), Portland should be able to put themselves through.

Now they face a straightforward task in the home leg: win or draw without conceding two goals.

This will be just the second match in Providence Park with fans since last season, and the first for the Timbers since a 1-0 victory over Nashville SC on March 8th, 2020. With the park operating at 20% capacity, the extra support should give Portland a small home boost.

Portland were without Sebastián Blanco and Jeremy Ebobisse for the first leg, and both should be back—if not starting—for the second.


My expected starting XI for today

My expected starting XI for today

Don’t be surprised to see Ebobisse starting over either Felipe Mora or Blanco. Mora did score last match, although he also missed a small handful of chances. We’ve seen Jebo on the wing and up top in the past, and he may be more fit than Blanco, who is coming off an ACL tear last season.

I expected Portland to let the game come to them a little more in the first leg, but after snagging the majority of possession in that match (58% to be exact), I expect them to do the same tonight. Marathón only need a single goal to flip the script, so the first score will be crucial. Gio Savarese & Co. will have to go for an early one to grab control of the tie.

With away goals being the tiebreaker, one Timbers goal means Marathón will need two to win. Portland certainly have the more talented roster, so this isn’t that tall of a task.

The Oregon Lottery Scoreboard has Portland at a comfortable -500 odds to win, with a draw at +700 and CD Marathón win least likely at +1000.

I predict a comfortable two-goal win for the Timbers, either 2-0 or 3-1. Maybe even four goals if the boys in green have their shooting boots on tonight.


Follow @doublepostpod for total coverage of tonight’s match, including our postgame reaction podcast later this evening.

As always, RCTID!

April 13, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers sign van Rankin: A look at the defensive depth chart

by Kevin Nesgoda February 3, 2021
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Portland Timbers have signed Mexican international right-back Josecarlos van Rankin from Chivas Guadalajara to a one-year loan deal with an option to buy.

Van Rankin, 27, has plenty of experience in 250+ Liga MX appearances for big-name clubs, namely Pumas. You can read all about his skillset here, although there’s nothing out of the ordinary.

His arrival comes off the heels of a wild few years of fullback changes, including:

  • Alvas Powell and Zarek Valentin’s departures

  • Team-of-the-Season-Jorge Moreira’s failure to re-sign

  • Jorge Villafaña’s return and re-departure

…and much, much more.

So far this offseason, the Timbers have added Claudio Bravo and van Rankin while subtracting Chris Duvall, Villafaña, and Gresham’s own Marco Farfan. This leaves Pablo Bonilla as Portland’s only returning outside back.

In the center of defense, Julio Cascante is the only departure, while Larrys Mabiala and Zac McGraw had their deals extended. Dario Župarić and Bill Tuiloma are still under contract.

If you’re good at counting, you may realize that totals four defensive departures and just two additions. The front office will surely be adding more depth as the offseason continues…

Gavin Wilkinson’s “Young Designated Player Center Back” signing that was mentioned at the start of the offseason has yet to materialize. Some have speculated the youngin’ may come from Brazil, as the Timbers have reportedly already had an offer declined from there.

Despite a looming lockout, let’s assume MLS matches will be played at some point this season. For the sake of exploration, here’s how the Timbers will probably look in their two-deep this year.


screenshot 2021-02-03 at 1.07.13 PM.png

A couple things to note:

  • Notice how we only have seven guys total. And I promise I’m not missing anyone.

  • I have Bonilla listed ahead of van Rankin solely because Giovanni Savarese has some outstanding fascination with him. Personally, I would start van Rankin. But we’ll see come matchday one.

  • There’s been zero indication that Gio wants to move to a back-three or anything like that. I’d be shocked if we’re not lined up in the same back-four.

So how will we fill out the roster? If that Young DP center back wish comes true, that still leaves the Timbers scarily thin at outside back.

I would hope and assume that Wilkinson & Co. take a similar approach to last year: bring in a guy like Chris Duvall for preseason trials and sign him if he fits. Personally, I liked Duvall a lot, and thought he should have been making some starts over Bonilla when both were healthy last season.

If not an MLS vet, the Timbers will likely use T2 call-ups to fill out the outside back positions. This is how Farfan got into the squad, after all. You can find a list of T2 defenders here. Aedan Stanley, who got all the left-back minutes last year, was signed by Sporting KC II over the offseason.

Again, there’s no way the Timbers will head into the regular season this thin.

Follow @doublepostpod on Twitter for instant reactions—and, as always, Go Timbers!

February 3, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Timbers’ Mabiala, Villafaña, and More: What You Need to Know

by Kevin Nesgoda January 12, 2021
written by Kevin Nesgoda

On Tuesday Morning, the Portland Timbers announced their official signing of veteran center back Larrys Mabiala to a “multi-year contract extension.” Read the full press release here.


Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L'Amoreaux via MLS

Image by Jared Martinez, Matt Stith & Devin L’Amoreaux via MLS

The 33-year-old from the Democratic Republic of the Congo has often been heralded as the most reliable piece of Portland’s back line since the departure of Liam Ridgewell following the 2018 season, making 99 appearances (including 97 starts) in all competitions for the Timbers.

Of course, the biggest question surrounding this move is how long Mabiala can sustain quality reps. The Timbers were already the oldest team in MLS heading into last season, and that hasn’t changed much since then.


Mabiala’s return was one of the club’s biggest objectives entering this offseason, but General Manager Gavin Wilkinson & Co. are not done.

Later this morning, the club also made an announcement about Jorge Villafaña, who has been traded to the Los Angeles Galaxy for a 2021 MLS SuperDraft first-round pick swap and potential allocation money.

The Villafaña news was first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle back in December, but it wasn’t official until today. His departure comes on the heels of a promising new left-back signing—23-year-old Claudio Bravo from Banfield in Argentina—who will require immediate playing time. You can read my breakdown of the Bravo move here.

As a 31-year-old making over $600,000, it makes perfect sense for the Timbers to move Villafaña right now. As much as I loved watching him play and will miss his presence on and off the field, this is a good idea from the front office.


With Marco Farfan, Julio Cascante, Chris Duvall, and now Jorge Villafaña all gone, Portland still has some more pieces to fit together along the back line. Bravo is coming in and Wilkinson has indicated he wants to use a Young Designated Player slot on a center back.

As of right now, Portland’s defensive roster looks like this:

  • Pablo Bonilla (21 years old, right back)

  • Claudio Bravo (23, LB)

  • Larrys Mabiala (33, CB)

  • Zac McGraw (23, CB)

  • Bill Tuiloma (25, CB)

  • Dario Župarić (28, CB)

Expect that Young Money CB and probably a cheap outside back or two before the season begins.


Speaking of the season beginning, there’s still a massive elephant in the room at MLS HQ: the Collective Bargaining Agreement. In short, the league used a force majeure to re-negotiate this year’s CBA because of the pandemic.

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I expect both sides to get things sorted out so the season can start on time in March. Still something to keep your eye on.

January 12, 2021 0 comment
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Portland Timbers

Claudio Bravo: What to know about Portland’s newest signing

by Kevin Nesgoda December 17, 2020
written by Kevin Nesgoda

The Portland Timbers have officially signed Argentine left back Claudio Nicolas Bravo from Banfield in Argentina. The transfer was first reported by Leonel Cerrudo back on October 3rd, and rumored again by Jeff Carlisle on December 3rd.


Image via Portland Timbers

Image via Portland Timbers

Transfer Fee

No official transfer fee was released, but the deal was definitely made using Targeted Allocation Money.

Carlisle’s reported “a transfer fee of $1 million with payments spread out over four years for 80% of Bravo’s rights,” but new reports are saying $1.5 million for 50%. This would be a downgrade in value from the initial reports, but still good value for a player that has the second-highest market value at his position in Argentina, according to Transfermarkt ($2.64 million).

Experience

The 23-year-old Bravo has recorded four assists in 56 first-team starts for Banfield over numerous competitions, including the Copa Sudamericana. He has 43 total appearances in Argentina’s Superliga, 41 of which were starts.

Bravo has also made eight appearances for Argentina’s U-23 National Team, six of which were in important CONMEBOL Olympic Qualification matches.

Overall, Bravo certainly has the first-team experience to make an instant impact in Portland.

How he fits in

Portland have already exported Homegrown talent Marco Farfan to LAFC, and are reportedly looking to do the same with veteran starter-incumbent Jorge Villafaña.

General Manager Gavin WIlkinson called his expectations of Bravo “extremely high,” continuing that “we are confident he will be a very effective and dominant left back in our league.”

Head Coach Giovanni Savarese: “His skillset is a very good balance of offense and defense at his position.”

Analytics sites and scouts seem to agree. SofaScore.com lists Bravo’s strengh as “ball control,” while his weaknesses as “discipline, error proneness, and passing.” Similarly, Whoscored.com gives him a “very strong” rating in dribbling, with other strengths in blocking, intercepting, and concentration.

On-field capabilities may remind fans of Jorge Moreira, another attack-minded outside back who was sometimes caught out of position. Bravo, though, seems like a more capable tackler and all-around defender.

There’s not much public tape on Bravo, but this video is a good indicator of his skillset. I expect the Villafaña transfer to happen and Bravo to be the bonafide starter come March.


As a general update, I’m currently constructing a massive offseason evaluation of the club, including player profiles for every incoming, departing, and current player.

P.S. — There are rumblings of the Double Post Pod returning in full. Stay tuned here for updates and follow me on Twitter at @folkestad3 and @doublepostpod!

December 17, 2020 0 comment
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