Author

Dan Morse

Seattle Kraken

How Yanni Gourde’s injury will affect Seattle’s start

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

It’s easy to ignore it right now, but when the Seattle Kraken take the ice for their first game on October 12th, they’ll be without one of their most important skaters. Yanni Gourde, the center selected in the expansion draft from the Tampa Bay Lightning, had shoulder surgery the week prior to the draft and isn’t expected to make his Kraken debut until as late as December.

It’s difficult to know how big this loss is, as we haven’t even seen the team on the ice together yet. There are so many other new faces to get excited about that Gourde’s absence might not really be felt until he makes his return, as odd as that sounds. But losing what most considered to be one of Seattle’s top-six forwards for the first month of the season is a significant setback for a team that projects to compete for a playoff spot in a weak Pacific division.

Ron Francis and the Kraken clearly think very highly of Gourde and believe him to be an integral part of the team going forward. In fact, on expansion day, Gourde’s contract was the highest commitment made by the team to any single forward in terms of total contract dollars—and the second highest commitment overall.

A bar chart highlighting Yanni Gourde as the second-highest salary commitment by the Kraken at the expansion draft

What Seattle is losing

Before analyzing who will take Gourde’s place in the lineup for the first quarter of the season, let’s take a peek at what Gourde himself will (eventually) bring to the table.

Gourde was frequently referred to as Tampa Bay’s third-line center last year, but that’s not really a good moniker for how he was used. It’s more due to the fact that the Lightning also rostered Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Steven Stamkos (who played on the wing more often but is still listed as a center), all of whom are star centermen that Tampa Bay protected over Gourde in the expansion draft. However, among Lightning forwards, Gourde actually played the fifth-most minutes per game at 5-on-5 last season. Yes, all of Point, Cirelli, and Stamkos played more, but that doesn’t change the fact that Gourde was a top-six player in Tampa Bay.

If there was any question whether he could handle a top-six role, he’s already answered them. Not only did he get those minutes, he thrived in them. Gourde spent the majority of his ice time last year with Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. In their 402 minutes together at 5-on-5, the Lightning controlled 59% of the unblocked shot attempts per game and outscored their opponents by a 2:1 ratio, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The real question now is how those three manage now that they’ve been separated. Goodrow and Coleman recently signed six-year deals with the New York Rangers and Calgary Flames, respectively. Neither received quite the salary that Gourde’s contract pays him, indicating that the league likely agrees with the thought that Gourde was the main play driver on that line.

Gourde is also the type of player that provides value on both areas of special teams play. He was one of three Lightning players to average at least a minute on the ice on both the power play and penalty kill units per game last year (Cirelli, Alex Killorn).

Gourde was one of the best penalty killers on Tampa Bay’s roster last year. The Lightning allowed fewer shots, goals, and expected goals per minute with Gourde on the ice than any other player on the team while shorthanded (per Evolving Hockey).

His power play stats weren’t as impressive, especially compared to the lethal first unit, but he did lead the second power play line in points with 6.

Who could fill in?

With Gourde providing value in so many facets of the game, who will Seattle look to to fill in for the first 20 or so games of the year?

One choice to jump in and center the second-line (or first, if that’s where you envision Gourde) is Jared McCann. McCann stepped in for an injured Evgeni Malkin on the Penguins’ top power play unit last year and within about two weeks had already notched 5 goals with the man advantage. If we assume McCann would initially be on the second power play unit, it’s easy to see him as Gourde’s replacement on the top-unit to start the year.

McCann also enjoyed a career year at 5-on-5 as well last season, finishing 8th in the NHL in primary assists per 60 minutes, just a shade behind Vegas’ Mark Stone (Evolving Hockey).

The issue with this solution is that, while McCann could move up from the third to the second line in Pittsburgh, he’s likely already going to be on the second line in Seattle. Most projections (like this one) have McCann as the second-line winger. So while it’s certainly possible he slides over to center in Gourde’s absence, that still leaves a hole in the top-six forwards that needs filling.

One name that has some top-six experience is Calle Järnkrok. Järnkrok has spent the majority of his seven full seasons in a middle-six forward role, but got a chance to play some top-line minutes on a struggling Nashville team last season. Like Gourde, he provides great defense at both 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill. He’s also got a great shot, boasting a career shooting percentage of 11.7%—nearly identical to players such as Evgeny Kuznetsov and Max Pacioretty. Järnkrok could potentially be the guy that takes an expanded opportunity in Seattle and runs away with it a la William Karlsson in 2017.

There’s still two months until the Kraken take the ice for their first ever regular season game, but it’s not too early to see the potential impact of an injury to a key player. Yanni Gourde is expected to be a core forward for years to come in Seattle, but they’ll have to explore some alternatives when the franchise begins its quest to bring a Stanley Cup back to Seattle.

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Seattle Kraken

NHL Free Agency Day 1: The Kraken gets released

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The NHL free agent market officially opened up on Wednesday, and boy were the Seattle Kraken active. There were plenty of questions after the expansion draft about how Seattle would utilize their nearly $30 million in cap space, and some of those questions have been definitively answered.

Before we get into the big names that were inked to new deals, let’s talk about the overall strategy. As an expansion team, it’s tough to expect the Kraken to lure free agents to Seattle on team-friendly deals. While teams like Tampa Bay can attract players to the team with the promise of another Stanley Cup, Seattle remains the great unknown in regards to when they will become a truly competitive playoff team. That means that in free agency, Seattle has to offer as much, or likely more, than most other NHL teams—which is what makes the extra cap space saved after the expansion draft so crucial.

So, who did the Kraken go out and spend (perhaps even overspend?) on in free agency? Let’s take a look.

Alex Wennberg

The first official signing was forward Alex Wennberg. Wennberg had a career-high 17 goals in 56 games last year in his only season with the Florida Panthers. He spent the previous six seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets. His final two years with the Blue Jackets were underwhelming, to say the least, but in Florida he seemed to find his game once again and proved that he still can be a top-six center. While he doesn’t provide much on the defensive side of the ice, Wennberg does add value where the Kraken lack it most: in the offensive zone.

Wennberg had the most primary shot assists per 60 minutes of play last year among forwards currently signed by the Kraken, according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. A shot assist is any pass that leads directly to a shot. That means he excels at setting his teammates up with scoring chances in the offensive zone.

A scatter plot highlighting Alex Wennberg's high rate of shot assists in 2020-2021

The options for top-six forwards were few and far between in the expansion draft for Seattle, and Wennberg fits in that hole perfectly. Now he just needs to be paired with someone who isn’t afraid to shoot the puck and Seattle will really be in business.

Jaden Schwartz

The worst-kept secret of Seattle’s free agency signings was left-winger Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz was rumored to be coming to Seattle as far back as the expansion draft, and now it’s finally done. He spent the last 9 years (plus a few games in his 19-year old season) with the St. Louis Blues and was a key part of their Stanley Cup run in 2019 where he scored 12 goals in 26 playoff games.

At his best, Schwartz can be a productive, top-line player. And not only does he add some offense to a team that really needs it, he’s also one of the better defensive wingers available too. Evolving Hockey rank Schwartz in the 94th percentile among forwards in their defensive Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric over the past three years, which is just a really fancy way of saying teams playing against Schwartz don’t get good scoring chances when he’s on the ice.

While the defense is nice, it’s his offense that will be most needed in Seattle in year one. There is an interesting comparison to be made here with another player that was frequently considered a lock to be an expansion selection by Seattle last week: James van Riemsdyk.

A table showing stats for Jaden Schwartz and James van Riemsdyk over the last 9 years

On a points per 60 minutes basis, Schwartz has been quite similar to van Riemsdyk over the last nine seasons, with the exception of those two recent years where he battled through some injuries. That 2018-19 year, remember, was also the Stanley Cup year where he netted 12 goals and 20 points in 26 games (2.64 P/60). Schwartz doesn’t have the 30+ goal season that van Riemsdyk has (JvR netted 36 in 2017-18), but he’s also three years younger and nearly $2 million cheaper. James van Riemsdyk was a draft-and-trade candidate, Schwartz is a foundational piece of the team for the next five years.

Philipp Grubauer

The biggest surprise of the day came when Seattle jumped into the conversation for the top goaltender available on the open market, Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer has been the starting goaltender for the Colorado Avalanche for the past three years and is coming off of his best season yet, posting a .922 save percentage (8th in the NHL) and allowing less than two goals per game (2nd in the NHL).

Part of that comes down to the fact that Colorado was, frankly, a damn good team. Among those with at least 1,000 minutes played last season, no goaltender faced fewer unblocked shot attempts per game (Fenwick Against/60, or FA/60) than Grubauer.

a bar chart displaying goalie shots against per game, with philipp grubauer facing by far the fewest in the nhl

Now this is by no means Grubauer’s fault, but it’s worth considering that he did face a lighter workload than everyone else last year. The good news is that the Kraken already look like a strong defensive team coached by Dave Hakstol, who has a history of coaching teams that don’t allow many high-quality shots. He very well may be stepping into a similar situation defensively—a situation in which we know he can excel.

Taking into account how dangerous the shots against Grubauer have been over the past three years is an even more encouraging in regards to his ability. He saved over 20 more goals than expected over that timeframe based on Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, a fantastic mark.

There’s little doubt Grubauer will be a great immediate addition to this team, though the possibility of paying him $6 million in his age 35 or 36 season could be cause for concern down the road. For now, however, Grubauer is the highlight of a busy day for Ron Francis and the Seattle Kraken.

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Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis
Seattle Kraken

Seattle flush with options ahead of NHL free agency

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The Kraken have been much quieter on the roster construction side of things than most people expected after the expansion draft. While the Vegas Golden Knights traded away four of their expansion selections within 10 days of their draft (acquiring two 2nd round picks, a 3rd, and a 5th) Seattle has held fast to their picks aside from getting a 4th round pick for forward Tyler Pitlick.

As of now, Ron Francis doesn’t appear to have any more trades in his back pocket. That does not mean, however, that the roster as it is currently constructed will be the same as the roster on October 12th when Seattle heads to Vegas for their first regular season game. Because while there may not be many trades involving Seattle, they’re expected to be a major player when free agency opens up on Wednesday the 28th. Ron Francis stated as much following the expansion draft.

“That would be our plan, yeah. Certainly there’s guys that were protected that might be available. We’ll certainly look at who’s out there on the 28th and hopefully we can entice more guys to come and join us.”

And of course, they’re also required to by rule.

Every team in the NHL has to be below the $81.5 million salary cap by the start of the regular season. But it’s the other side of that coin that has a more outsized effect on the Kraken this year—the $60.2 million salary cap floor.

Per Cap Friendly, Seattle is projected to have a total NHL salary of about $50.8 million this upcoming season as the roster stands now. They have several restricted free agents still to sign, but of those only Vince Dunn seems like a sure thing to crack the opening night roster. His contract should come in somewhere in the $3M-$3.5M* range, leaving Seattle still a full $6 million shy of the minimum required salary by the NHL.

*A quick note about NHL contract values: they are typically reported as the Average Annual Value, or AAV, because the salary cap hit for the team is always the total salary divided by the number of years on the contract. All numbers in this piece as far as contract values go will be referring to AAV.

Once teams are permitted to negotiate contracts with free agents on Wednesday, Seattle will need to find enough players to fill out their NHL roster that will give them at least $6 million more in salary. They could theoretically trade some of their cheaper talent now for players on larger contracts, but that really doesn’t seem to fit with what the team has done so far. Which leaves two options as to how Seattle will spend to the cap floor in free agency.

Note: Contract projections used in this piece come from a model developed by Josh and Luke Younggren available at evolving-hockey.com to paid subscribers

Option A: Go big or go home

They could ignore grandma’s advice and go spend it all in one place like their inner child has always wanted to. If that’s the case, Gabriel Landeskog seems to be the top target. 

The captain of the Colorado Avalanche seemed destined to remain with his team all season long, but another early playoff exit along with stalled contract talks has shifted the conversation entirely. Landeskog, at 28 years old, is looking for what will likely be his last big payday in the NHL. His linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen make $6.3M and $9.25M, respectively, and it’s safe to say Landeskog would like something in that range. The contract projection model at Evolving Hockey predicts he could command a 7-year, $8.8M deal this offseason.

With a massive new deal for superstar defender Cale Makar in the books and another big one for Philipp Grubauer still being worked out, there’s a real possibility that Colorado simply won’t have the space to match what a team could offer Landeskog in free agency. Enter the Kraken.

Seattle reportedly talked to Landeskog during the 72-hour negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, implying they were at least considering using their selection on the stud winger. Ultimately they went with Joonas Donskoi, but that doesn’t mean they can’t circle back on Landeskog this week after he has a chance to see what his skills will command to other interested parties on the open market.

Landeskog would be a huge get for Seattle, immediately giving them the star power on offense that they lack, and providing instant leadership in the locker room for the expected 7-year life of his contract. With only two other contracts over $5M AAV after this year, splurging on this big name would in no way hamstring the franchise in the immediate future. And of course, it would be really damn fun to watch in year one.

The other potentially high-priced addition could be Phillip Danault. Coming fresh off of a Stanley Cup Final appearance, Danault is known primarily as an elite defensive center. Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com has a great visual of how the Canadiens allowed far fewer high-danger shots against their goaltender with Danault on the ice, where the blue areas in the bottom-left quadrant represent a lower-than-average amount of shots allowed by the Habs.

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

The Montreal Canadiens allowed 11% fewer expected goals than average with Danault on the ice last season

He would fit in as a top-six center in Seattle along with Yanni Gourde and provide proven talent at a thin position. Like Landeskog, Danault projects to get a long-term deal this offseason, likely the maximum allowed 7 years. Evolving Hockey predicts a $6.2M cap charge for the 28-year old, which could be more than a team would like to pay for a player who has only surpassed 50 points once in his career. His defensive ability, however, is clearly enough for Seattle to take a long look at him. The Kraken did have discussions with Danault’s camp during their expansion negotiating window, but whether or not those talks will pick back up this week remains unknown.

Option B: Spread the wealth

For the price of one Gabriel Landeskog, Seattle could instead invest in two or three mid-level free agents in an attempt to fill out more than just their top line. It wouldn’t be as splashy of a move, but this option would fit in better with the strategy they have laid out thus far.

Seattle only has two players under contract for more than one season with contracts over $5M AAV—forwards Jordan Eberle and Yanni Goure. Mark Giordano carries the highest cap charge at $6.75M, but with only one year remaining it hardly hinders the team from making any move in the near future. Ron Francis has said multiple times he likes where the team is in regards to their cap situation, so it can be inferred that they’d like to keep it that way in an era where the salary cap may stay stagnant for as many as five years.

“We think [cap space] is the valuable thing to have right now, especially in the COVID environment with the flat cap,” said Francis in his post-expansion draft availability. “We went through our choices and there were some good players that were out there, but maybe we weren’t comfortable with the cap hit on some of them. We tried to draft the best team possible that we could and still keep our cap space available to hopefully do some things as we move forward.”

If Seattle wants to keep that cap flexibility to a maximum, it might behoove them to look towards some of these more affordable free agents to fill out their lineup.

Jaden Schwartz | LW | Age 28
EH projection: 3 years, $4.75M AAV

Seattle reportedly showed interest in Schwartz during the negotiating window ahead of the expansion draft, but ultimately selected the promising young defender Vince Dunn from the St. Louis Blues instead. That doesn’t mean, however, that the talks didn’t go well between Schwartz and the Kraken. In fact, Seattle now seems to be the frontrunner as his eventual landing spot.

Talks are expected to pick back up on Wednesday between the two sides, but no details of a deal have yet been reported. Schwartz would immediately slot in opposite Jordan Eberle on the team’s top line and provide proven NHL talent on the offensive side, an area with which Seattle projects to need the most help.

Zach Aston-Reese | LW | Age 26
EH Projection: 3 years, $2M AAV

Aston-Reese was a popular choice for the Kraken’s selection in the expansion draft among the analytics community. He plays very strong defense and has the ability to generate shots both off the rush and while set up in the offensive zone, as seen in the manually tracked data from Corey Sznajder.

Zach Aston-Reese is above average at shot generation both on the rush and set up in the offensive zone, per Corey Sznajder

From Corey Sznajder’s manually tracked data

Aston-Reese has not been given a qualifying offer from the Pittsburgh Penguins as of this writing, and appears to be set to become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday. He could fit in as a 3rd line winger with potential to get even better with an opportunity to play more minutes for the expansion club.

UPDATE: Zach Aston-Reese was qualified by the Pittsburgh Penguins after this post was published. He will no longer become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday.

Jujhar Khaira | C | Age 26
EH Projection: 1 year, $990K

Khaira was not extended a qualifying offer by the Edmonton Oilers, which means he becomes an unrestricted free agent this week. He’s likely a career bottom-six forward, but he can play center and spent a lot of time killing penalties last year, which is always important. If Seattle takes a run at Khaira to perhaps center their third line, that could also allow them to shelter their shiny new second-overall pick Matty Beniers on the fourth line as he develops in his first year.

The cap hits of these three players combined could very well come in around the same hit as Landeskog alone. This would net Seattle a winger who despite not being as good as Landeskog would still project as their top-line left wing as well as two more capable NHL players that could fill out their bottom-six.

Whichever method Ron Francis and the Kraken front office choose to utilize, rest assured that despite a quieter start to their organization than anticipated, they will be making plenty of moves once free agency opens up on July 28th.

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Seattle Kraken

Meet Matty Beniers: The Kraken’s first ever draft pick

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

“He’s the kind of guy you want to start your franchise with.”

Ron Francis had the highest of praise for the Seattle Kraken’s first draft pick in franchise history, Matty Beniers.

With the second overall selection, Francis went with the chalk pick and took the Michigan center frequently praised for his ability to play at both ends of the ice. At his ceiling, he’s been compared to Chicago captain Jonathan Toews.

In Beniers, the Kraken are getting a player who at worst will be an NHL-caliber defensive center, and at best would be a top-6 center that plays on both the power play and the penalty kill. Beniers is known for playing tough defense and having the ability to flip the play to the other end of the ice.

The question now becomes how soon Beniers is ready to make the jump to the NHL. The 18-year old hasn’t shied away from the idea of heading back to Michigan for another year to make a run at a national championship. It would also give him more time to build muscle as he prepares to join the NHL, where he will face much larger competition than he has seen in college.

“Moving forward, for me it’s building strength, building muscle, continuing to work on scoring goals,” Beniers said in his post-draft interview. “That’s a big part of me moving to the next level is getting bigger, there’s a lot of bigger, stronger guys. I’m more on the leaner side but I’m definitely getting there, and I think a little time will help.”

Listed as 6’1” 175 lbs, Beniers isn’t exactly small but he does have room to grow. That hasn’t stopped him yet, however, as he’s managed to put up points at the college level, at the World Junior Championship, and at the IIHF Men’s World Championship. He helped his teams take home a gold medal and a bronze in the World Juniors and World Championship, respectively, but never got a satisfying ending to his collegiate season after Michigan was forced out of the NCAA Division I tournament due to COVID concerns. A point-per-game player at Michigan, that seems to be the one championship that got away. At least for now.

“I think they’re looking at it, you know, Owen Power, Matt Beniers, Kent Johnson, Luke Hughes, they think they got a chance to win a national championship,” said Francis. “In their minds, maybe it’s best to go back and play. We’ll have that discussion with Matty and we’ll make the decision we think is best for him.”

Maybe Beniers does go back to school for a year, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that he’s a player any team would be ecstatic to have, both from a hockey perspective and from a character perspective.

On the ice, Beniers is phenomenal in transition. Mitch Brown of Elite Prospects manually tracks some advanced stats not found in junior leagues, and he had this to say on Beniers on an episode of the Controlled Entries podcast.

“With Beniers, you’re getting a guy who is very dynamic in transition…the thing that makes him really special compared to a lot of these other top prospects is that he’s not moving defensemen to the inside so he can take the outside—he’s moving them to the outside so he can go straight up the middle and make a play.”

In addition to his high-end hockey skill, he brings the character that the Kraken are looking for and that, frankly, they really need as they build this brand new team from the ground up. Getting players that want to play for each other is key as more than 30 players arrive at training camp this summer and especially when 20 of them suit up on October 12th for their first game against the Vegas Golden Knights.

“A big part of what we look for not only is a good player but we look for character,” said Francis. “We think Matty exudes that.”

Director of Amateur Scouting Robert Kron would echo that sentiment during his media availability as he noted Beniers’ “unbelievable enthusiasm and work ethic” while discussing the importance of high-character players joining the team.

Talking with Beniers, it’s easy to see for yourself. For example, when asked about what he thought of teammate Owen Power going first overall, one spot ahead of him, Beniers made no remarks indicating he himself should’ve been the first overall pick instead, even in jest.

“Couldn’t have happened to a better guy. He’s so humble, he’s such a great person, he works so hard, that’s where he deserves to be.”

That’s the kind of teammate anyone should want to play with.

When Beniers finally does hit the ice in a Kraken uniform, be it this year or next, Seattle can be confident in knowing they got a great player that’s absolutely worthy of his draft status. Who knows, maybe in time Beniers will even take up the mantle of being the first captain in team history. He’s certainly got the potential.

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Seattle Kraken

The Expansion Draft: First Impressions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

Ron Francis took the stage on Wednesday evening with his polo shirt unbuttoned and his gold chain hanging out, oozing the confidence and weariness of a man that’s been up for three days straight plotting the best methods to steal a player from every team in the NHL. How did he and his staff do in that regard is a difficult question to answer, so today I’ll simply gather some thoughts on various aspects of the selections as we try to make sense of the team-building philosophy the Kraken have now put forth.

-Cap space is every bit as valuable to this team as anyone predicted. Ignoring all your mock expansion drafts that saw Seattle hitting $70 million in salary from the jump, Seattle decided that they would not take on any contracts that would give them salary cap issues. In fact, they barely managed to reach the minimum required cap space in the expansion rules ($48.9M). After the Jamie Oleksiak, Chris Driedger, and Adam Larsson signings, CapFriendly projects the current roster to cost $52.5M. That leaves them with just shy of $29M in cap space and $8M below the NHL’s salary cap floor. Not only does this mean they have the ability to be aggressive in free agency, they’re actually required to do something in order to reach that cap floor.

-The biggest contract they took on was Mark Giordano’s $6.75M deal with just one year left on it. Yanni Gourde and Jordan Eberle are the only other players making more than $5M per year. So while we can expect the team to be active when free agency opens up on July 28th, don’t go thinking just yet that they’ll open the pocket book for an albatross contract for someone like Gabriel Landeskog. I’m expecting more mid-level free agents. They were reportedly interested in Jaden Schwartz in the two-day negotiating window prior to the expansion draft, and have been in contact with Zach Hyman’s camp as well. [UPDATE: Hyman has reportedly reached a deal with the Edmonton Oilers for 7-8 years, $5M AAV] Evolving Hockey projects Schwartz to get a 3-year, $4.75M AAV deal, while Hyman is projected to get a 4-year, $5.3M deal. Both would stay in the realm of the contracts the Kraken have taken on (and handed out) in regards to both value and term.

-They’re big. Half of the Kraken’s 12 selections on defense are at least 6’3”, with Jamie Oleksiak leading the way at 6’7”. How important is size, especially among defenders? That’s debatable, but it is always fun to see a big guy manning the blue line.

-Speaking of fun blue lines, how cool is it that brothers Cale and Haydn Fleury both got selected? The two have not played on a team together since they were five and three years old, and here they are with a chance to prove themselves at the highest level on a brand new hockey team.

“He Facetimed me this morning….and he instantly called my parents and brought them into the call. And it was a really special day. My mom, I think, was crying. I don’t know; I couldn’t see her. But it was a really exciting day. And I just couldn’t be more proud of him. And just ready for him to be my teammate.”

Be still, my heart.

-Mark Giordano was there on the stage in Seattle. With only one year left on his deal and still a productive defender at age 37, Giordano could be a prime trade candidate for the Kraken either early this offseason or even at the trade deadline this coming year, but bringing him out in a Kraken sweater at the end of the evening seems to indicate that Seattle would prefer to keep him around all year. Maybe even longer.

-There will likely be more of a goalie tandem than a starter and backup situation this year. Chris Driedger and Vitek Vanecek have started a mere 70 games combined in their careers. Both netminders played unexpectedly well this past season, so it appears the hope is that they both continue to build on solid performances as they get more starts in net with this new team. Joey Daccord, the 24-year old selection from the Ottawa Senators, has even less experience and will be the goalie sent to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers. It’s an inexperienced, high-upside core of goaltenders coming to Seattle.

-Where were all the side deals? Some people posited that teams would learn from the Vegas expansion and be reluctant to make trades with Seattle, and it appears they were correct. There have been zero reported side deals made during the expansion process, and very few rumors of trades still to be made involving recently selected players. Ron Francis all but confirmed the suspicions after the show.

“This was going to be so much different than what Vegas did. Vegas did a good job taking advantage of the rules and everyone’s lack of experience…They had a lot more time to prepare for us. Last time GMs were more willing to overpay to protect certain assets. This time they learned from that and they weren’t willing to make the mistakes they made last time.”

It appears that in the game of chicken between Francis and every other GM in the league, nobody blinked, and Seattle simply ended up grabbing their best player available at each stop.

-What are those choices from Philadelphia, LA, and Columbus? Max Domi wouldn’t have been as good of a pick as people might’ve thought, with one year left on his deal and currently dealing with an injury to go alongside a career-worst year with just 24 points in 54 games, but why Gavin Bayreuther over the more proven Dean Kukan, who is only one year older? In Philadelphia it’s fairly easy to get on board with avoiding the James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek contracts, but what is it about Carsen Twarynksi that makes him more attractive than Robert Hägg or even Connor Bunnaman? And as far as LA goes, I know they didn’t have a lot of good looking options, but most of them looked better than Kurtis MacDermid.

-Jordan Eberle was there, in a jersey! He looked fantastic (and short compared to the rest of the guys there) and in all likelihood be the leading scorer in year one, depending on who else joins the team later on. Eberle, Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi, and Jared McCann have all proven that they can put the puck in the back of the net. They weren’t going to get elite scoring talent in the expansion draft, but this is an encouraging start to the team’s top-six.

There’s still a lot to come with this roster, but the fact is there is a real team, with real players, and real jerseys(!). The Kraken have taken a major step into the NHL, and despite some questions floating around some of these selections, this is an exciting and unforgettable time for the city of Seattle.

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Seattle Kraken

Dan’s Seattle Kraken Expansion Mock Draft

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

The protected lists for all 30 (curse you Vegas) NHL clubs have been released to the league and to the public, and there are more than a few surprises. It appears the Kraken could build a legitimately good team from the jump, so long as they’re willing to take on a few medium-to-large contracts. Of course, some of the surprising names left available could be protected in a side deal that we won’t hear about until Wednesday, but for now, we’re working with what we’ve got.

Here’s one possible expansion roster for the Seattle Kraken based on the actual protected lists released by the 30 NHL teams. All cap info and graphics come from Cap Friendly’s own Seattle expansion tool, be sure to check it out over these next couple days until the team is official.

Forwards: 17
Defense: 10
Goalies: 3
2021-2022 contracts: 25
Cap hit: $77.1M

Some notes:

-This cap charge is much higher than what the Kraken want to go into the year with, but the idea here is to immediately trade away a few of these players for more draft picks and prospects. Vegas loaded up on defenders in the expansion draft and flipped a few of them within a day. Mark Giordano is a prime candidate for this, along with potentially a Jordan Eberle or Max Domi.

-Vladimir Tarasenko is too good to pass up. It’s difficult to find a 40-goal scorer anywhere, let alone in an expansion draft. His $7.5M cap hit is high but worth it, assuming he’s healthy and ready to go this season

-Relatedly, James van Riemsdyk gets left off this list because he’s got nearly the same cap charge as Tarasenko with about half the goal-scoring upside. We’ll take a chance with Hakstol’s former player Shayne Gostisbehere instead.

-There are so many good options available from Tampa. Ondrej Palat, Alex Kilorn, and Tyler Johnson would all be fine choices, but Gourde plays center more regularly and the center position is hard to come by. He’s also just really damn good.

-Jared McCann was just picked up by Toronto in a trade with Pittsburgh. He’s adored by the analytics crowd and has some of the best rate stats in the league. There could be a side deal here, assuming the Leafs don’t want to lose a guy they just swapped a prospect and a pick for.

-Haydn Fleury was a former Ron Francis pick in Carolina. A reunion of sorts seems very possible

-Chris Driedger has already been reported as a likely selection from the Panthers. Vita Vanecek came out of nowhere last year and proved to be an NHL-caliber goaltender, so they’ll compete for the starting job in year one.

-Washington also left defenseman Justin Schultz available. He could easily be a target, in which case we’ll need to find another goaltender somewhere, perhaps Braden Holtby from Vancouver

As of now, it appears the Kraken will have a chance to ice a really competitive team from the jump this October. Or at the very least, they should clean up in those expansion side deals that Vegas has been praised for these past four years. We’ll find out for sure on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Seattle Kraken

Last-minute trades impact the Kraken’s expansion decisions

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

There was a flurry of trades in the NHL on Saturday morning ahead of the roster freeze and the deadline for team protected lists heading into the week of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. Many of them had major implications for what was expected regarding the players available to Seattle on Wednesday. Here’s a rundown of what trades happened and how they will affect the Kraken’s initial roster.

THE TRADE

Dallas trades center Jason Dickinson to Vancouver for a 2021 3rd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

With the news that goaltender Ben Bishop would waive his no-move clause last week in order to protect fellow goaltender Anton Khudobin, Dickinson became the frontrunner to be picked by Seattle. He’ll be on the protection list in Vancouver, bumping someone like Matthew Highmore off, while the options from the Stars look much more slim.

THE TRADE

Arizona trades goaltender Adin Hill to San Jose for goaltender Josef Korenar and a 2022 2nd round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

Hill looked like the default pick for Seattle on a very meh Coyotes team. Now it looks more likely Seattle takes a forward in Johan Larsson or Christian Fischer, or perhaps makes a side deal to take on the exorbitant contract of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who carries an $8.25M cap hit through 2027.

THE TRADE

Pittsburgh trades left winger Jared McCann to Toronto for center Filip Hållander and a 2023 7th round pick

THE IMPLICATIONS

McCann looked like the clear choice from Pittsburgh last week after reports surfaced that the Penguins would protect Brandon Tanev over McCann, but that’s out the window now. Seattle will likely look at forward Zach Aston-Reese or a defenseman like Marcus Pettersson or Mike Matheson from Pittsburgh now.

This one also has significant implications in Toronto, who were speculated to protect four forwards and four defensemen, but will now have to use the 7F/3D approach to protect McCann. That should leave someone like Justin Holl available on the blue line for the Kraken.

THE TRADE

Nashville acquires Cody Glass and Philippe Myers from Philadelphia & Vegas

Philadelphia acquires Ryan Ellis from Nashville

Vegas acquires Nolan Patrick from Philadelphia

THE IMPLICATIONS

With Nolan Patrick gone, the Flyers are now projected to protect winger James van Riemsdyk. That leaves Jacob Voracek and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel as the potential forward picks from the Flyers and Shayne Gostisbehere as an available defender.

Nashville now has Cody Glass, who is exempt from the expansion draft, and doesn’t have to protect Ryan Ellis. They could potentially now protect popular mock draft choice Calle Järnkrok.

Vegas gets Nolan Patrick, who by virtue of playing for Vegas, is now exempt from the expansion draft.

THE TRADE

The New York Islanders trade two 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick to Arizona in exchange for Arizona taking on Andrew Ladd and his near $5M cap hit.

THE IMPLICATIONS

The Islanders are in a tough cap situation right now, with $12.9M in projected cap space and both Anthony Beuvillier and Adam Pelech still to be signed. This relieves some of their cap issues, which could lessen the impact of a side deal with Seattle to take on a big contract in exchange for draft picks or prospects.

Perhaps the most impactful piece of news from an eventful day was the trade that did not happen. The St. Louis Blues were either unable or unwilling to move Vladimir Tarasenko before the noon roster freeze. Now it appears that the Blues are willing to let him head to Seattle for potentially no return.

Tarasenko has only appeared in 34 games in the past two years, but scored at least 30 goals in the five prior seasons. He would immediately be the Kraken’s top goal scorer. His $7.5M cap hit is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s worth the money if he is healthy.

Rosters are now frozen, which means no more trades or signings can happen until after the expansion draft. Protected lists will be distributed on Sunday morning at 7am and from that point on it will be nothing but real Kraken news until the final expansion roster is released on Wednesday at 5pm.

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Seattle Kraken

Prospect Week: Brandt Clarke

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

A mere 47 hours separates the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft and the NHL entry draft. That’s a whole lot of new players headed to Seattle in a short window of time. While the expansion draft will likely dominate NHL coverage, especially in the Seattle area, the Kraken’s first ever entry draft is an equally important moment in shaping the future of the franchise.

Odds are that Buffalo will select defenseman Owen Power with the first pick this year. But that second overall selection, owned by the Kraken, seems much murkier on the surface. Which is why this week, we’ll break down five candidates for the Kraken’s first every draft pick. Today, we’re breaking down one more defenseman.

Brandt Clarke

Clarke is a 6’2″ defender that spent time on both the OHL’s Barrie Colts and in Slovakia’s professional league, the Tipos Extraliga. He racked up 15 points in 26 games in Europe, putting him just a shade under his OHL 0.67 points per game average in 2019-20. His strength is his undeniable offensive skill.

The only real questions with his game is whether or not he’s good enough in his own zone to be a top-pair defender. His power play potential, however, is clearly top-notch.

Aside from the raw offensive talent, here’s two more reasons Clarke would be a good fit in Seattle.

He’s a right-handed shot

If you’re unfamiliar with the importance of this, try thinking of it like a left-handed pitcher in baseball. It’s less common, but very important that a team has a mix of players that play with different dominant hands.

In hockey, there are more left-handed shots than right handed shots. That sounds weird at first glance, I know, but holding a hockey stick isn’t exactly the same natural mechanics as throwing a ball. On defense, having one right-handed shot and one left-handed shot on each pairing is generally considered the norm in the NHL. The reasons behind that are a bit complicated, but it comes down to the fact that keeping the puck in the offensive zone on your strong side is easier than on your weak side. here’s what Fansided’s Walt Gebelein had to say on the subject:

I have seen no metrics on the topic, but just as a matter of mechanics, playing the weak side point, players are less efficient at keeping the puck in the offensive zone. It takes more motion to get the puck in a playable position and attempts to keep the puck in the zone inherently come with more positioning risk.

Which brings us back to Brandt Clarke. Clarke is the top right-hander in this strong defensive class. Ron Francis has been known to pick defensemen early on in round one, but has never had the opportunity to get a right-hander of this caliber. Does he consider it to be a valuable enough trait to bump Clarke up to the second overall pick? We’ll have to wait and see.

He’s already a leader

Something that more frequently comes up in expansion draft discussions rather than entry draft discussions is the aspect of leadership in the locker room. It’s especially important in a new team that won’t have any faces in the locker room that are established leaders of the Seattle Kraken. In addition to the veterans that could bring this presence to the team, Brandt Clarke is not afraid to step up and let his voice be heard.

Playing in the top men’s league in Slovakia, with guys twice his age, Clarke is not intimidated. It’s a small, simple gesture, but it’s also something that not every player has. Clarke could have the makings of the future first captain of the Seattle Kraken.

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Seattle Kraken

Prospect Week: Dylan Guenther

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

A mere 47 hours separates the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft and the NHL entry draft. That’s a whole lot of new players headed to Seattle in a short window of time. While the expansion draft will likely dominate NHL coverage, especially in the Seattle area, the Kraken’s first ever entry draft is an equally important moment in shaping the future of the franchise.

Odds are that Buffalo will select defenseman Owen Power with the first pick this year. But that second overall selection, owned by the Kraken, seems much murkier on the surface. Which is why this week, we’ll break down five candidates for the Kraken’s first every draft pick. Today, we’re going back to the forward group.

Dylan Guenther

Guenther is a 6’2″ right wing currently playing for the WHL’s Edmonton Oilers. While Seattle might be looking harder at adding a center or a defenseman with such a high pick in this year’s draft, they might make an exception for someone with Guenther’s goal scoring ability.

Guenther might just be the best shooter in this draft class, and his playmaking ability isn’t too shabby either. He doesn’t have the two-way game of a prospect like Matty Beniers, but that might not matter in Seattle. Here’s why.

Scoring goals is really hard

This is a very basic idea in hockey but it’s a fundamental one that shouldn’t be ignored. Scoring is hard. And it will be most likely be especially hard for Seattle in year one, as the best scorers in the league will all be on protected lists. For that reason, the Kraken will have to look to the draft to generate their goal scoring in the early years, and nobody has been better recently than Dylan Guenther.

In the small sample size that was the 2021 WHL season, Guenther managed to reach both the goal-per-game and assist-per-game plateaus, finishing with 12 of each in 12 games. As the Athletic’s Corey Pronman notes, that’s a higher points-per-game than recent WHL standouts Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evander Kane.

Grabbing a player whose primary job is to score goals would not be a bad choice for Seattle, regardless of whatever defensive ability he may lack.

Kraken scouts got to see him in person

Admittedly, this is less of a reason why Guenther would be a good fit, or why he’s a good prospect, and more a reason why you might see his name called as the second overall pick on July 23rd. Ryan S. Clark of the Athletic reported that all of the Kraken’s Canadian scouts were able to see Guenther play in-person during his time in the WHL and at the U-18 Worlds.

Regardless of how the average fan feels, scouts will generally agree that seeing prospects live in action is an extremely valuable asset when it comes to evaluating prospects. In a pandemic year where live viewings were much harder to come by, this piece of information could be just enough to sway the Kraken into grabbing the guy they feel they got the best evaluation of.

Of course, those viewings may have come before the draft lottery, when the most likely draft slot for Seattle was either the fourth or fifth overall pick. Did they like what they saw enough to stand by Guenther even at second overall? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Seattle Kraken

Prospect Week: Simon Edvinsson

by Dan Morse
written by Dan Morse

A mere 47 hours separates the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft and the NHL entry draft. That’s a whole lot of new players headed to Seattle in a short window of time. While the expansion draft will likely dominate NHL coverage, especially in the Seattle area, the Kraken’s first ever entry draft is an equally important moment in shaping the future of the franchise.

Odds are that Buffalo will select defenseman Owen Power with the first pick this year. But that second overall selection, owned by the Kraken, seems much murkier on the surface. Which is why this week, we’ll break down five candidates for the Kraken’s first every draft pick. Today, we’re heading across the pond to Sweden.

Simon Edvinsson

Edvinsson is listed as either 6’4″ or 6’5″ depending on where you look, but the point remains the same that he’s the second-biggest defenseman likely to go in the first round in 2021 behind Owen Power. He also happens to move with the agility of someone 6 inches shorter.

Edvinsson has been described as the unicorn of the 2021 NHL draft. His upside is a franchise defenseman that could anchor the blue line for a decade and play on both the power play and the penalty kill. With the second overall pick, upside is a crucial factor. Teams don’t often get a chance at these guys.

There’s a couple more reasons the Kraken should take a long look at Edvinsson as we head towards the day of the NHL draft.

Ron Francis loves defensemen

Seattle general manager Ron Francis oversaw four NHL entry drafts as the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes. With their first pick in three of those drafts, the Hurricanes selected a defenseman.

This is admittedly a small sample size, but it does show that Francis is at the very least willing, if not wont to build his team from the blue line first and foremost. If the pick is Simon Edvinsson, that would be the fourth defender that Francis has selected in the top-13 picks in his five years as an NHL general manager.

Has Francis been good at evaluating these high-end defensemen? That depends on who you ask. Haydn Fleury hasn’t lived up to his draft slot, as evidenced by the fact that he’ll likely be unprotected and available to the Kraken during the expansion draft. But he’s still a capable NHL-caliber player. Hanifin is a legitimate top-4 defender, and Jake Bean (another potential expansion target) still doesn’t have enough games under his belt to make a definitive evaluation, but early indications are he too will develop into a top-4 player.

Regardless of how he’s done in the past, the main takeaway here is that history indicates that Francis is looking to go defense-first early on in this draft.

Professional experience

One of the most difficult parts of evaluating prospects for the NHL draft is reconciling the differences in talent level across all the different leagues that NHL teams draw from. College players are playing against other college-age players, but that’s not necessarily the case in European leagues.

Edvinsson spent most of his draft years in Swedish junior leagues, but he did get some valuable experience in the Swedish Hockey League last season. The SHL is generally considered the third best league behind the NHL and Russia’s KHL. It could be argued that simply having those minutes in one of the highest levels of European hockey is more valuable than some of what players might get in North America.

Ron Francis is no stranger to these leagues either. He drafted Sebastian Aho in 2015 after Aho spent 30 games in the Finnish Liiga, the highest level of hockey in Finland.

The downside with Edvinsson is that it’s unclear when he will be NHL-ready. His time in the SHL was valuable but limited, and he may take a few years of seasoning before becoming that impact player he has the potential to be. But on an expansion team seeking to build up a farm system from scratch, that might actually be a good thing.

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